Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck
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Every year there will 3 to 6 LS Diamond Cards that easily sell consistently over 200K & an other 3 to 5 Cards that sells consistently between 100K to 200K & then an other 3 to 5 Cards selling consistently between 50K & 100K.
Each of these cards are the 1's less likely to be pulled from packs by most of us. Yes people are pulling them, I'm not saying that they aren't. However using this years Cards as an example; for Every 1 person that pulls a Trout, Acuna, Vlad Jr, Ohtani, Tatis Jr or Degroom from packs, it's easily 500 people who dont pull these cards from packs. This is because the pack odds are spread thru-out every pack randomly given out to people, regardless if earned pack from rewards or packs purchased with stubs. This is what makes some people "luckier" then others. Especially when there are those very few & rare people that are pulling Trout 3 to 5 times within a season & as well pulling the other remaining top 5 priced cards 1 to 3 times as well, if not more times then that.
In these 8 years I been playing MLBTS going back to 16, I only pulled Trout 1 time only & pulled any of the other top 5 priced cards maybe 3 or 4 times within those 8 years. Regardless how many packs I earned via rewards & as well purchased with stubs. This put me in that sad pool of unlucky souls that has to grind even more for stubs & as well heavily rely on card flipping to make enough stubs to buy those cards I was not lucky enough to pull from packs. So this post is on behalf of all the others members of that sad pool which is the vast majority over that minority of super lucky fortunate soul's to be pulling these cards so frequently & consistently.
What I am suggesting & hoping what SDS would do .....
Create an algorithm that reads a persons pack history & randomizes the packs given via rewards or purchases accordingly. So if I were to pull a Trout card or any of the other top 5 priced cards, then all of my future packs will have way much, much lower odds of pulling those cards a 2nd time. So the chances of getting Trout, Acuna & Vlad Jr 2 times is very very very unlikely. Close to impossible. Now lets say if you opened 50 packs so far & have not pulled Trout or any of the top 5 priced cards. Then each of your future packs will have the odds increase that you would. Basically applying the "Law Of Averages" formula to it along with a card value ranking system. Getting repeats on 85 to 89 Diamonds is more likely then getting repeats on 90+ Diamonds. This will give ""EVERYONE"" EQUAL FAIR CHANCE & ODDS to pull almost every LS Diamond card eventually within the season. Any repeats can be used towards selling back into the market of for exchanges.Now that minority I mentioned of those super lucky souls always getting these cards frequently & consistently from packs may feel this is not fair because they no longer will have that luck on their side anymore. However the keyword used is "Minority". SDS needs to look for the best interest of the majority.
Some may question what does SDS have to gain with this? The answer is within the added content SDS releases via Missions, Programs Ranked, Events, BR, Showdown & even Conquest if they bring back Extreme style of Conquest like back in 18. They can continue making content that can only be earned by elite skilled players or which has to be purchased off the market by those who can NOT play well enough to win them via rewards. They can make even more content to be won that way only & the top premier cards being really able to be earned exclusively by those elite skilled players.
I will be the 1st to admit that this will kill me because as it is right now, many of the top premier cards within Ranked, Events & BR I will not be able to earn as rewards. I'm simply NOT good enough to go 12-0 in BR or get to WS in Ranked and as well do NOT have time to play 300 innings online. I have a job & playing DD is something I can only put maybe at most 2 to 3 hours a day into & need to divide those 2 to 3 hours into Programs, Conquest, RTTS, MTO, etc, etc. I can NOT devote it only to just 1 mode of play. However I do feel & believe it is 100% fair & ok for anyone who can play that well or put in so much time to earn those reward cards. So I am ok knowing that the majority of those top premier reward cards I would need to purchase within the market & just being able to earn the mid-way path point cards at the furthest point I may be able to get to within Ranked & BR. in my case I normally top best at WC in Ranked & will get as far as up to 5 wins in BR per entry.
In closing I am just saying pack odds should be fair person to person. Not just having odds overall in general towards the entire collective as a whole. Every should have fair odds with pulling cards. Some may pull a Trout, Acuna or Vlad Jr within the 1st month & some may pull either in their 4th month & some may pull either within the later months around August/September. But the point is that EVERYONE will eventually pull them sooner or later. NOT go the entire season with never pulling any of them.
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SIX Live Series cards over 200K?
A bit of an exaggeration. Nevertheless...
Lock the LS up ASAP, even if you have to flip (read: crush your soul) to get it done. That's the lesson.
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Also, that's not how odds work. Every time you open a pack, whatever pack it is, those odds reset. The Odds Gods don't know and don't care if you've never pulled Trout or if you've already pulled him twice this week.
That's why it's always advisable to never buy packs, only opening the ones you get for free, and to save your stubs for the cards you need.
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I read the whole thing to see if it was a troll job but I'm SMDH cuz I don't think it is. The pure length of the thought process on paper is kinda tragic.
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@suntlacrimae50_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
Also, that's not how odds work. Every time you open a pack, whatever pack it is, those odds reset. The Odds Gods don't know and don't care if you've never pulled Trout or if you've already pulled him twice this week.
That's why it's always advisable to never buy packs, only opening the ones you get for free, and to save your stubs for the cards you need.
I've never pulled Trout in a pack and I've been playing DD since 2016. I wonder how many packs that has been? I don't feel the love.
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As always it's ALWAYS ONLY those that have pulled the Trouts & top priced cards every year 2 & 3 times each that never realize how many others are not so freaking lucky as they are. But all of you lucky ones are in a minority group. It's the majority that does not have such luck. If the majority did, then pulling Trout or any of the top priced cards wouldn't be a big issue any more. Or having others say how they Finally pulled a Trout for 1st time ever in so many years playing.
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I've pulled Trout probably five times since 2018. However I never buy packs out of need. It is usually after the games peak when I have completed all collections and I'm sitting on 10 million stubs. People who buy packs and then complain they don't get Trout or other in demand cards are beyond silly.
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When I have purchased Bundle packs of 20 or 50, it was with the intention of getting any of the Common, Bronzes, Silvers & even Golds out of the way so I dont need to buy them off the market to complete a team collection of the few I may have been missing. All the repeats I acquired from those 20 & 50 bundles served well for Exchanges within Programs. However within 20 packs or 50 packs that came within those bundles, it's just frustrating that most times it dont give a LS Diamond & the rare times you are lucky to get an LS Diamond, it's a low tier low priced Diamond card & at times a repeat of 1 you already pulled before. I never bought Bundle packs with expectations of getting a top tier high priced LS Diamond card. But always was hoping that my luck was in my favor within that 20 or 50 Pack Bundle. Big freaking difference as to buying Bundles & assuming I will get those cards.
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@texas10pt_psn said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@suntlacrimae50_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
Also, that's not how odds work. Every time you open a pack, whatever pack it is, those odds reset. The Odds Gods don't know and don't care if you've never pulled Trout or if you've already pulled him twice this week.
That's why it's always advisable to never buy packs, only opening the ones you get for free, and to save your stubs for the cards you need.
I've never pulled Trout in a pack and I've been playing DD since 2016. I wonder how many packs that has been? I don't feel the love.
You have me beat by a year. Played super late in 16 and only played BR. Started RS heavy in 17. Still no trout in a pack.
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@suntlacrimae50_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
SIX Live Series cards over 200K?
A bit of an exaggeration. Nevertheless...
Lock the LS up ASAP, even if you have to flip (read: crush your soul) to get it done. That's the lesson.
Not much of an exaggeration. Trout, Acuna and DeGrom at one point were over 200K and Vlad, Ohtani and Tatis were hovering around the 198-200K mark.
Right now, last i saw the 3 cards i need, Acuna was around 220, Ohtani was around 195 and Tatis was at 198.
Edit * Yes i know Trout is always over 350K and Acuna is around 220K....not sure on DeGrom since i pulled him 3 weeks ago.
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Dude wrote an essay, it's simple stay away from packs, I'm always joking about credit card spending to poke at the addicts on here
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Doesn't seem that hard. I've pulled 2 ohtani, 1 trea, 1 vlad, 1 scherzer, 1 hader and about 10 other diamonds worth less than 20k. Haven't spent a time and just grinded all the events and programs and have redone the mystery map about 5 times.
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@tonythetiger2k16 said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
As always it's ALWAYS ONLY those that have pulled the Trouts & top priced cards every year 2 & 3 times each that never realize how many others are not so freaking lucky as they are. But all of you lucky ones are in a minority group. It's the majority that does not have such luck. If the majority did, then pulling Trout or any of the top priced cards wouldn't be a big issue any more. Or having others say how they Finally pulled a Trout for 1st time ever in so many years playing.
I'm fully aware of my luck! Odds on pulling Trout are not publicly knows, but it's probably something like 1:500.
That being said, the past two year (my only DD years) I've pulled Trout while working the market and saving to buy him.
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The first week . the early access week, I pulled DeGrom 5 times. Acuna and Tatis 2x each, Trout, and Ohtani. I also pulled Scherzer like 6 times. I am not exaggerating about his and I didn't buy thousands of packs. Once regular access started, these cards became very rare. I've pulled 100 times the amount of packs since then without one of those cards again. Seriously. The first 100 packs or so I pulled all the above cards. In thousands of packs since then , I have not pulled any of those cards once. So SDS can say whatever they want about pack odds and how they are consistent , etc but that's a bunch of BS.
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What I have wondered, and maybe someone knows, but we hear pack odds for diamonds. But not all diamonds are equal, so are the odds of pulling Trout the same as the odds of pulling Iglesias? Or are those high end diamonds even less likely to be pulled?
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@nflman2033_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
What I have wondered, and maybe someone knows, but we hear pack odds for diamonds. But not all diamonds are equal, so are the odds of pulling Trout the same as the odds of pulling Iglesias? Or are those high end diamonds even less likely to be pulled?
Higher are less likely to be pulled. Law requires them to display the odds, but not to be specific. They clearly make the distinction with choice packs with low, mid and high diamond tiers
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@yankblan_psn said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@nflman2033_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
What I have wondered, and maybe someone knows, but we hear pack odds for diamonds. But not all diamonds are equal, so are the odds of pulling Trout the same as the odds of pulling Iglesias? Or are those high end diamonds even less likely to be pulled?
Higher are less likely to be pulled. Law requires them to display the odds, but not to be specific. They clearly make the distinction with choice packs with low, mid and high diamond tiers
Makes sense, figured that would ne the case. I've pulled two Trea Turners this year, obviously no high quality diamonds.
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@nflman2033_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@yankblan_psn said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@nflman2033_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
What I have wondered, and maybe someone knows, but we hear pack odds for diamonds. But not all diamonds are equal, so are the odds of pulling Trout the same as the odds of pulling Iglesias? Or are those high end diamonds even less likely to be pulled?
Higher are less likely to be pulled. Law requires them to display the odds, but not to be specific. They clearly make the distinction with choice packs with low, mid and high diamond tiers
Makes sense, figured that would ne the case. I've pulled two Trea Turners this year, obviously no high quality diamonds.
Only DeGrom so far; Trea twice too. At least he brings back decent dough.
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@nygxnymxfan68_xbl said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
The first week . the early access week, I pulled DeGrom 5 times. Acuna and Tatis 2x each, Trout, and Ohtani. I also pulled Scherzer like 6 times. I am not exaggerating about his and I didn't buy thousands of packs. Once regular access started, these cards became very rare. I've pulled 100 times the amount of packs since then without one of those cards again. Seriously. The first 100 packs or so I pulled all the above cards. In thousands of packs since then , I have not pulled any of those cards once. So SDS can say whatever they want about pack odds and how they are consistent , etc but that's a bunch of BS.
I mean, I've had good luck too, but the odds are the odds. In 1:50 (and probably 1:100, 1:500, 1:1000) odds, weird things happen to some people. There are you and me, and there are people who haven't pulled a single low diamond all year.
The only manipulation occurring, I think, is SDS not advertising what the odds are for 90's and Trout.
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@yankblan_psn said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@nflman2033_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@yankblan_psn said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
@nflman2033_mlbts said in Pack Odds are more like Lottery Luck:
What I have wondered, and maybe someone knows, but we hear pack odds for diamonds. But not all diamonds are equal, so are the odds of pulling Trout the same as the odds of pulling Iglesias? Or are those high end diamonds even less likely to be pulled?
Higher are less likely to be pulled. Law requires them to display the odds, but not to be specific. They clearly make the distinction with choice packs with low, mid and high diamond tiers
Makes sense, figured that would ne the case. I've pulled two Trea Turners this year, obviously no high quality diamonds.
Only DeGrom so far; Trea twice too. At least he brings back decent dough.
Yeah, better than my first diamond pull this year, Muncy who dropped to gold a couple days later.
I've had Good luck really, also pulled Judge, Robert, Hader, Hendricks, and Perez, I've only had the game 2 weeks.
