What is the odds to get Shohei Ohtani
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This is ridiculous why it’s so hard to get him.
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Very easy. He’s on the market. Just buy one.
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Given:
Odds of pulling any diamond in a pack: 1:50 (which means probability = 1/51, since success for every 50 failures, 1 + 50 = 51 total outcomes)
There are 96 different diamonds that can be pulled from Show Packs (looking at the inventory "location" tab).We want: The odds (probability) of pulling a specific diamond.
Step 1: Probability of pulling any diamond P(any diamond) = 1/51
Step 2: Probability of pulling a specific diamond, assuming all diamonds are equally likely
P(specific diamond) = P(any diamond) X P(that diamond | diamond) =
(1/51) X (1/96) = 1/4896Step 3: Odds of pulling a specific diamond
Odds are usually given as successes : failures.
Final Answers:Probability: 1/4896
Odds: 1:4895This means you expect to get that specific diamond once every 4896 packs, on average.
As the season progresses, we get more and more diamonds that are able to be pulled from the Show Packs which will only make it more unlikely to pull him. There was only 68 diamonds (1:3467 odds) to be pulled from the Show Packs on 13 April 2025, so you can see how much it can jump up in a short amount of time. These odds are optimistic, as they assume that a specific 85 diamond, like Blake Snell, will appear as much as the Shohei Ohtani card.
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Push start on the card page and it shows rates for each player
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@dap1234567890_PSN said in What is the odds to get Shohei Ohtani:
Step 2: Probability of pulling a specific diamond, assuming all diamonds are equally likely
I don't believe that they are equally likely. I don't have proof. It's just a feeling.
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Someone said, in a video, that the odds to pull a 90+ LS Diamond are 0.00008%
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Normally in each of show games i had to buy him for high amount of stubbs. This year i got Lucky to get him in a pack. But it is very hard to get high diamonds
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So he's a Shiny.
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Like 1 in 12,500 packs for high diamonds per show zone percentages. So at that rate you only have to play repeatable conquest 2,500 times to pull him.
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Not sure how the odds really work but surprisingly I pulled him in the first or second week of the game release. All previous years I’ve had to buy him. With that said, May the Live Series God ever be in your favor
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If you pull a diamond they give specific odds of each card for dropping
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@theBlindRhino_PSN just buy one...almost 700,000...yeah just buy one
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@squishiesgirl_MLBTS I already bought him at 489k about a week ago.
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@theBlindRhino_PSN ok? But he's not 489 anymore..so what's your point?
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@squishiesgirl_MLBTS said in What is the odds to get Shohei Ohtani:
@theBlindRhino_PSN ok? But he's not 489 anymore..so what's your point?
My point would be that one is more likely to accumulate the required stubs through patience, flipping, or playing, and then buying the card than to rely on luck of pulling the card.
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@Dolenz_PSN Man, I feel so lucky to have pulled like 8 Will Smiths and 6 Trea Turners with those 1 in nearly 5K odds. Amazing!!! (I don't think lower diamonds and higher diamonds have the same chance)
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@theBlindRhino_PSN see now that answer makes more sense than...it's easy just buy one
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I just pulled him from a silver pack idk what the odds are for that.
