WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL

SDS

Thanks for the responses, and I respect all of your opinions and factual input you provided

SDS

Sorry, had to post this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZI2aLQ9Sw

SDS

Bottom line is that WAR is imperfect and flawed (OP’s point), but is currently the best available stand alone stat we have to compare players across different eras (other commenters points).

In 2019, Justin Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300k. His pitching was worth 7.4bWAR. In 2019, Mike Minor was 14-10 with a 3.59 ERA and 200k. His pitching was worth 7.8bWAR.

In 2019, Gerrit Cole was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 326k. His pitching was worth 6.6bWAR. In 2019, Lance Lynn was 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA and 246k. His pitching was worth 7.5bWAR.

In this case, WAR is misleading. Despite having lower bWAR totals, Verlander and Cole had better seasons. Accordingly, Verlander and Cole finished 1st and 2nd in Cy Young voting while Lynn and Minor finished 5th and 8th.

bWAR includes park adjustments, so playing in Globe Life increased the bWAR totals of Lynn and Minor and without a deeper dive could lead someone that lives and dies by WAR to believe that Lynn and Minor were better than Verlander and Cole last season. Which to OP’s point, would be a ridiculous conclusion.

Having said that, more often than not, WAR (bWAR or fWAR) is going to be the best all-incompassing stand alone indicator of performance. The best players will consistently post the highest WAR totals.

In baseball, almost everything is recorded, quantified, and analyzed. With all the information that’s available, why would anyone choose just one stat to look at when comparing players? Even if that stat is comprised/calculated using other stats, it’s impossible to paint the entire picture and honestly, that person is just missing out on the incredible and fascinating information that’s out there.

I apologize to anyone who stuck with me and read all this. Believe it or not, I tried to keep it short. There’s just so much information out there that people are missing out on, and because of it, there’s seasons and careers that get tragically overlooked.

SDS

@ilvmyjeep said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

Bottom line is that WAR is imperfect and flawed (OP’s point), but is currently the best available stand alone stat we have to compare players across different eras (other commenters points).

In 2019, Justin Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300k. His pitching was worth 7.4bWAR. In 2019, Mike Minor was 14-10 with a 3.59 ERA and 200k. His pitching was worth 7.8bWAR.

In 2019, Gerrit Cole was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 326k. His pitching was worth 6.6bWAR. In 2019, Lance Lynn was 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA and 246k. His pitching was worth 7.5bWAR.

In this case, WAR is misleading. Despite having lower bWAR totals, Verlander and Cole had better seasons. Accordingly, Verlander and Cole finished 1st and 2nd in Cy Young voting while Lynn and Minor finished 5th and 8th.

bWAR includes park adjustments, so playing in Globe Life increased the bWAR totals of Lynn and Minor and without a deeper dive could lead someone that lives and dies by WAR to believe that Lynn and Minor were better than Verlander and Cole last season. Which to OP’s point, would be a ridiculous conclusion.

Having said that, more often than not, WAR (bWAR or fWAR) is going to be the best all-incompassing stand alone indicator of performance. The best players will consistently post the highest WAR totals.

In baseball, almost everything is recorded, quantified, and analyzed. With all the information that’s available, why would anyone choose just one stat to look at when comparing players? Even if that stat is comprised/calculated using other stats, it’s impossible to paint the entire picture and honestly, that person is just missing out on the incredible and fascinating information that’s out there.

I apologize to anyone who stuck with me and read all this. Believe it or not, I tried to keep it short. There’s just so much information out there that people are missing out on, and because of it, there’s seasons and careers that get tragically overlooked.

Wow I didnt know that about those pitchers last year. That is crazy, I'd like to see the WHIP and per 9s, but still would not think WAR would be that far off.

SDS

”But when you get to the avg and above avg players from different era's you can not just go off of WAR imo because of what management and scouts valued in a player which did not use sabermatrics which is highly used in today's game since early 2000's mostly by the A's.”

@dbarmonstar no doubt. I can agree with you on this. A’s scouts since century mark and comparison to other teams and their total salaries. We may never see such a productive team based on salary in our lifetime again

Often over looked and not even respected

SDS

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

Take Griffey and Bonds came in the league almost at the same time. Bonds is batter but I think Griffey was better than Bonds in there prime.

Uh no.. Bonds was much better in his prime than Griffey

SDS

@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

Does not inclued how they value of how many times a player K's

It actually does. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_wraa.shtml) Advanced WOBA? Note 5

, does not include the value of RBI's or avg with runners in scoring pos.

Because that stat isn't independent of player performance. It requires teammates be in certain situations. Hence, why it's not included in an individual metric.

does not include SB which is a stat.

It does. See previous link, Advanced wOBA? Note 3

Does include BB which is part of OBP.

Which it should.

Does not include BA.

Because it's not that great a stat for comparing. Similar to using Wins for Pitchers, or Passing yards for a QB that doesn't account for garbage time stats.

It is not for comparing players of different Era's, it is based on win over replacment for a team without or with that player in the lineup it is an estimate.

Your own link said it did. You should read it sometime.

Now I get it, some people want to double down. However, this just about sums up every common misunderstanding about the stat. Oh wait I forgot it's not okay to change your opinion on the internet 🙃

SDS

@ilvmyjeep said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

Bottom line is that WAR is imperfect and flawed (OP’s point), but is currently the best available stand alone stat we have to compare players across different eras (other commenters points).

In 2019, Justin Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300k. His pitching was worth 7.4bWAR. In 2019, Mike Minor was 14-10 with a 3.59 ERA and 200k. His pitching was worth 7.8bWAR.

In 2019, Gerrit Cole was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 326k. His pitching was worth 6.6bWAR. In 2019, Lance Lynn was 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA and 246k. His pitching was worth 7.5bWAR.

In this case, WAR is misleading. Despite having lower bWAR totals, Verlander and Cole had better seasons. Accordingly, Verlander and Cole finished 1st and 2nd in Cy Young voting while Lynn and Minor finished 5th and 8th.

bWAR includes park adjustments, so playing in Globe Life increased the bWAR totals of Lynn and Minor and without a deeper dive could lead someone that lives and dies by WAR to believe that Lynn and Minor were better than Verlander and Cole last season. Which to OP’s point, would be a ridiculous conclusion.

Having said that, more often than not, WAR (bWAR or fWAR) is going to be the best all-incompassing stand alone indicator of performance. The best players will consistently post the highest WAR totals.

In baseball, almost everything is recorded, quantified, and analyzed. With all the information that’s available, why would anyone choose just one stat to look at when comparing players? Even if that stat is comprised/calculated using other stats, it’s impossible to paint the entire picture and honestly, that person is just missing out on the incredible and fascinating information that’s out there.

I apologize to anyone who stuck with me and read all this. Believe it or not, I tried to keep it short. There’s just so much information out there that people are missing out on, and because of it, there’s seasons and careers that get tragically overlooked.

  1. No one with half a brain uses bWAR for anyone other than infielders and WAR actually is somewhat flawed for pitchers

  2. fWAR is a superior stat in all ways to bWAR

  3. Era should not effect WAR anyway because it's dependent on quality of fielders and is a more flawed stat than WAR itself, instead fWAR uses FIP(fielding independent pitching), which is an independent stat that doesn't rely on the fielding besides catcher framing

  4. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole had better seasons, which is why no one with half a brain uses bWAR for anything besides 3rd base, as well as SS and 2B occasionally

SDS

I’m shocked the OP hasn’t advocated for pitcher wins as a useful stat yet.

SDS

@iCards1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

I’m shocked the OP hasn’t advocated for pitcher wins as a useful stat yet.

Pitcher wins is about how well the team can hit and score Runs, The best pitcher will usually have the Best ERA especially in the NL. Take last year how well DeGroom pitch despite the wins. You can have a pitcher win 17 games but have an ERA plus 4 or high 3's just because the team gives that pitcher run support. You have to look at that pitchers W-L with ERA, WHIP, BB. K's. Just like hitters all the stats matter when it comes to comparing players. Look at a pitchers Run support as well.

SDS

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@iCards1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

I’m shocked the OP hasn’t advocated for pitcher wins as a useful stat yet.

Pitcher wins is about how well the team can hit and score Runs, The best pitcher will usually have the Best ERA especially in the NL. Take last year how well DeGroom pitch despite the wins. You can have a pitcher win 17 games but have an ERA plus 4 or high 3's just because the team gives that pitcher run support. You have to look at that pitchers W-L with ERA, WHIP, BB. K's. Just like hitters all the stats matter when it comes to comparing players. Look at a pitchers Run support as well.

I'll take ERA+ because it's park adjusted and FIP to get a better sense of pitcher performance

SDS

@iCards1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

I’m shocked the OP hasn’t advocated for pitcher wins as a useful stat yet.

I never base anything off of one stat or a single formula. I do not think some of you understand that just looking at WAR pitching or Hitting at not taking into account other stats or researching the game in the time that the player played and just assuming WAR got it right, WAR does not take in a lot of factors of the ERA in which that player played.

SDS

@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@iCards1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

I’m shocked the OP hasn’t advocated for pitcher wins as a useful stat yet.

Pitcher wins is about how well the team can hit and score Runs, The best pitcher will usually have the Best ERA especially in the NL. Take last year how well DeGroom pitch despite the wins. You can have a pitcher win 17 games but have an ERA plus 4 or high 3's just because the team gives that pitcher run support. You have to look at that pitchers W-L with ERA, WHIP, BB. K's. Just like hitters all the stats matter when it comes to comparing players. Look at a pitchers Run support as well.

I'll take ERA+ because it's park adjusted and FIP to get a better sense of pitcher performance

I agree with that

SDS

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

I do not think some of you understand that just looking at WAR pitching or Hitting at not taking into account other stats

I do not think some of you understand that WAR takes into account other stats.

SDS

@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

I do not think some of you understand that just looking at WAR pitching or Hitting at not taking into account other stats

I do not think some of you understand that WAR takes into account other stats.

You can live and die by WAR but it is flawed when people only use WAR to debate players of different eras.

SDS

Here a question for you WAR lovers and experts. Would Trout value and WAR be higher playing on a team that makes playoffs every year such as the Dodgers. Would his WAR increase Decrease or stay the same. If you broke down the WAR of players who played for more than 3 teams, Take the WAR from each team the player WAR would not be the same even for the best players would it?

SDS

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player

Except that WAR DOES adjust based upon era. So your argument is invalid.

Learn what WAR really is WIN above Replacement for his time not to compare players of different ERA's
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

Yes it does compare players across different eras. Your linked article even says that.

SDS

@skepple15 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:

Take Griffey and Bonds came in the league almost at the same time. Bonds is batter but I think Griffey was better than Bonds in there prime.

Uh no.. Bonds was much better in his prime than Griffey

I would not say much better, They were both really good. I just looked at some stats, They were pretty equal. Bonds we know he best years were in his 30's and that was Jr decline with the injuries. For being one of the best players ever Bonds was terrible in the playoffs

SDS

I think this should clarify WAR once and for all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZI2aLQ9Sw

Edit Didn't realize someone had posted this already....