Pack Odds Study
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I wanted to track the odds for getting Diamond Packs throughout the year. It has always been my feeling that MLB the show starts out tight with diamond packs, but then allows more to be pulled after most of us have completed the Live collection. I will continue to update this throughout the year. Looking at updating at least once a month.
April Packs opened/Diamonds
585 The Show packs opened. 9 Diamonds pulled. Realized Odds - 1.5% chance of pulling a diamond.
From AI
🧠Interpretation
You expected about 11–12 diamonds
Getting 9 diamonds is a bit below average, but still very normal
This outcome is not unlucky at all—it happens roughly 1 in 11 timesApril Ballin Packs
92 Ballin packs opened. 5 diamonds pulled. Realized odds - 5.4% chance of pulling a diamond
**From AI
🧠Interpretation
Expected: ~6 diamonds
You got: 5 diamonds
That’s slightly below average, but very normal
This happens about 1 in 7 times** -
Update after opening 1000 The Show packs this year.
16 diamonds pulled resulting in a 1.6% success rate. Getting 16 or fewer successful tries occurs about 1 in 5 times. Uncommon, but not a rare occurrence.At this time I have opened 189 Ballin packs. I have pulled a diamond 12 times for a 6.3% success rate. This rate is at the 48th percentile. A typical result.
Where I think I am completely unlucky is the value of the diamonds being pulled. The current total value of all my live series diamonds pulled is 383,468 stubs (sell now price) for an average of 17,430.36 stubs per diamond pulled. I have only pulled 6 of the top 25 most expensive based on the sell now price with Bobby Witt Jr. being the most expensive card pulled with a value of 150,223 stubs. I have pulled 16 of the bottom 23 Live diamonds. If all the diamond cards have the same odds of being pulled this outcome is EXTREMELY unlikely. It is in the range of a ~3.4 sigma event. This is the kind of outcome that would be considered statistically very rare. It points to the fact that SDS is misleading pack buyers of the odds of getting the higher value diamond cards. If not all diamonds are pulled at the same rate, then pack buyers should be made aware of the odds to pull each individual card as the odds of pulling a diamond would be misleading to the pack buyer.
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If all the diamond cards have the same odds of being pulled this outcome is EXTREMELY unlikely.
This is a misconception, not all diamonds are created equal. SDS posts the odds of each specific card on their website, Ohtani is at 0.008% I believe.
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Yeah it’s a fine print type of thing. The artificial scarcity is ridiculous considering 11 months from now these cards with have ZERO value.
Bottom line is that the cards should be significantly easier to pull via earnable packs and rewards in game. People will always use the excuse that it’s still better than EA or 2K but compared to what the game was just a few years ago it’s taken a massive step backwards.
I used to love this game. Now I barely like it.
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Update - April Stats in....
718 The Show packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 14-15 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 13. The odds of getting 13 or fewer diamonds is 40.77%. Slightly lower than advertised odds. This results is within norms.
157 Ballin packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 10.5 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 11. The odds of getting 11 or fewer diamonds is 61.5%. Slightly higher than advertised odds. This results is within norms.
Year to Date stats
249 Ballin packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 16.7 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 16. The odds of getting 16 or fewer diamonds is 47.7%. Slightly lower than odds advertised. This results is within norms.1303 The Show packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 26 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 22. The odds of getting 22 or fewer diamonds is 24.0%. This result is lower than average, but not extreme.
I am debating on expanding to find the expected stub gain from opening certain packs. I did a mini study with about 40 the show packs. The average stub gain per pack from those 40 packs was 333 stubs/pack. Well below the 1,500 stub cost of a pack.
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May stats
716 The Show packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 14.3 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 13. The odds of getting 13 or fewer diamonds is about 41%. Slightly lower than advertised odds. This results is within norms.
122 Ballin packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 8.2 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 7. The odds of getting 7 or fewer diamonds is 45.09%. Slightly lower than advertised odds. This results is within norms.
Year to Date stats
371 Ballin packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 24.86 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 23. The odds of getting 23 or fewer diamonds is 38.9%. Slightly lower than odds advertised. This results is within norms.2019 The Show packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 40 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 35. The odds of getting 35 or fewer diamonds is 21.88%. This result is lower than average, but not extreme.
Still planning on attempting a stub/pack study. This will take more time and will need to be completed while I am on vacation from my job. These results would not be without influence from Glitchers and Card flippers as their actions influence the market dramatically. I wish these people would understand that their actions fundamentally change our gameplay and enjoyment of this game. I read one card flipper who stated that he doesn't tell others how to play their game so they shouldn't tell him how to play the game. The flaw in that statement is that his gameplay forces others into playing the game that is changed because of him.
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@CoachPappy17_PSN Interesting. Thanks for doing this.
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Halfway through June Update
279 The Show packs opened in June, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 5.58 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 4. The odds of getting 4 or fewer diamonds is about 35.7%. Although lower than advertised odds. This results is within norms.
45 Ballin packs opened in June, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 3.02 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 1. The odds of getting 1 or fewer diamonds is 18.7%. Significantly lower than advertised odds. This results is uncommon, but not rare at 1.2 deviations below the mean.
Notes
My pack opening has slowed since I altered my grind strategy to running quests instead of mini-seasons. I also got lucky and pulled Ohtani from a Headliner pack which allowed me to finish the live series and the Cabrera collection.I have had consistent poor luck in June and am wondering if SDS toned down the pack odds to combat the glitch exploiters. Hoping when all the "action" to punish those people have happened we may return to regular pack odds.
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C CoachPappy17_PSN referenced this topic
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C CoachPappy17_PSN referenced this topic
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I have had consistent poor luck in June and am wondering if SDS toned down the pack odds to combat the glitch exploiters.
Please don’t do this. Unless the pack odds have been expressed as changed, they are not changed.
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I have had consistent poor luck in June and am wondering if SDS toned down the pack odds to combat the glitch exploiters.
Please don’t do this. Unless the pack odds have been expressed as changed, they are not changed.
As I stated it was conjecture, not fact. There is no scientific theory without a hypothesis. I also don't have a problem if they did. It would keep the cheaters from benefitting too much while also helping the market.
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I also don't have a problem if they did. It would keep the cheaters from benefitting too much while also helping the market.
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I just wanted to say that I appreciate your tracking and analysis.
In case you did not know SDS actually posts the pull rates of every single card available in a pack.
