Pack Odds Study
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I wanted to track the odds for getting Diamond Packs throughout the year. It has always been my feeling that MLB the show starts out tight with diamond packs, but then allows more to be pulled after most of us have completed the Live collection. I will continue to update this throughout the year. Looking at updating at least once a month.
April Packs opened/Diamonds
585 The Show packs opened. 9 Diamonds pulled. Realized Odds - 1.5% chance of pulling a diamond.
From AI
🧠 Interpretation
You expected about 11–12 diamonds
Getting 9 diamonds is a bit below average, but still very normal
This outcome is not unlucky at all—it happens roughly 1 in 11 timesApril Ballin Packs
92 Ballin packs opened. 5 diamonds pulled. Realized odds - 5.4% chance of pulling a diamond
**From AI
🧠 Interpretation
Expected: ~6 diamonds
You got: 5 diamonds
That’s slightly below average, but very normal
This happens about 1 in 7 times** -
Update after opening 1000 The Show packs this year.
16 diamonds pulled resulting in a 1.6% success rate. Getting 16 or fewer successful tries occurs about 1 in 5 times. Uncommon, but not a rare occurrence.At this time I have opened 189 Ballin packs. I have pulled a diamond 12 times for a 6.3% success rate. This rate is at the 48th percentile. A typical result.
Where I think I am completely unlucky is the value of the diamonds being pulled. The current total value of all my live series diamonds pulled is 383,468 stubs (sell now price) for an average of 17,430.36 stubs per diamond pulled. I have only pulled 6 of the top 25 most expensive based on the sell now price with Bobby Witt Jr. being the most expensive card pulled with a value of 150,223 stubs. I have pulled 16 of the bottom 23 Live diamonds. If all the diamond cards have the same odds of being pulled this outcome is EXTREMELY unlikely. It is in the range of a ~3.4 sigma event. This is the kind of outcome that would be considered statistically very rare. It points to the fact that SDS is misleading pack buyers of the odds of getting the higher value diamond cards. If not all diamonds are pulled at the same rate, then pack buyers should be made aware of the odds to pull each individual card as the odds of pulling a diamond would be misleading to the pack buyer.
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If all the diamond cards have the same odds of being pulled this outcome is EXTREMELY unlikely.
This is a misconception, not all diamonds are created equal. SDS posts the odds of each specific card on their website, Ohtani is at 0.008% I believe.
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Yeah it’s a fine print type of thing. The artificial scarcity is ridiculous considering 11 months from now these cards with have ZERO value.
Bottom line is that the cards should be significantly easier to pull via earnable packs and rewards in game. People will always use the excuse that it’s still better than EA or 2K but compared to what the game was just a few years ago it’s taken a massive step backwards.
I used to love this game. Now I barely like it.
