Sonny Gray
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@trfatboy22_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
I really don't understand the rational for downgrading a guy who is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA. It doesn't really matter because there are plenty of better SP options anyway I just don't really see the rationale here.
Let me start by saying that I am a Carrdinals fan so I am rooting for Gray to do well, but lets look at it rationally and understand that ERA and Win-Loss record have absolutely no sway over the Pitcher's overall rating in the game.
Looking at the changes they made for him
- H/9 - they reduced it by 1
- K/9 - They reduced it by 5
- HR/9 - They reduced it by 8
- He then got +3 in BB/9 and +6 in clutch
Looking at his stats
- His H/9 is down slightly this year for the and is the lowest it has been since 2020
- His K/9 is at 8.5 which is 2.5 strikeouts less than last year
- His HR/9 is at 1.3 which is higher than last year, which was higher than the previous year
- His BB/9 dropped from 2.1 last year to 1.8 so far this year hence the increase
So the H/9 rating downgrade is very questionable as he actually improved that stat
The others seem justified. Maybe you could question the amount.In the end it does not matter much and he may end up being downgraded again because the Mets did a number on him tonight. In 4.1 innings he allowed 9 hits, 4 earned runs, walked 3 and allowed a HR. So unless he has a few stellar outings the rest of the month all those attributes will be downgraded again next update.
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@Dolenz_PSN Except this is inconsistent because there are plenty other players who you can point to stats being better or worse that didn't get changed. And a player who is performing essentially at career levels shouldn't be downgraded. It's silly. Also that Mets outing doesn't look good sure but he didn't pitch terribly just ran into the hottest hitting team in baseball.
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Don't blame me. You asked why he got downgraded. I looked at the attributes that were updated and compared them to the stats that are behind those attributes and tried to look at it logically. Only the H/9 did not make sense to me but that was only a single point.
The next attribute update is going to cover the period between the two updates. The Mets game yesterday is going to count. It does not matter if he was facing the Mets or Colorado.
I am not saying I understand all of SDS' updates because I don't. I am not saying that SDS does not play favorites with some players because they do (points at Tatis Jr's speed upgrade). But in this case I don't see anything sinister.
I'm more than happy to look at another pitcher who did not get changed if we want to compare.
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@MarioMendoza935_XBL said in Sonny Gray:
@Dolenz_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
Don't blame me
I'm sure this is somehow your fault
< absolutely shocked that they have a middle finger emoji >
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@Dolenz_PSN I'm not blaming you I just disagree. And I completely think that who you are facing does and should matter for how good you are as a player.
Also Tatis is stealing a lot more bases this year so that might be why they upped the speed. Also possible his sprint speed is grading higher now. (although I haven't looked)
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@Dolenz_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
< absolutely shocked that they have a middle finger emoji >
Yet we cant even say the name of one of the new legends without it being censored...
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@trfatboy22_PSN H/9 up BB/9 up HR/9 up K9 down. Seems pretty obvious to me. Wins and ERA have no bearing on a pitchers ratings.
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@GoozeFn_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
@trfatboy22_PSN H/9 up BB/9 up HR/9 up K9 down. Seems pretty obvious to me. Wins and ERA have no bearing on a pitchers ratings.
Just as a data point, his H/9 was actually down slightly this year compared to last year at the time they made the update. His next outing after the update was awful and he is probably slightly higher now but the -1 to the H/9 made little sense at the time of the update.
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@Dolenz_PSN they base the up/downgrades relative to this year‘s attributes and 2025-real-life stats. If he fared a little worse, he can be downgraded (a little). It also looks like he was barely a diamond. That could be a factor too
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@YOSHI24_XBL My point is if they are going to overreact to a small sample and downgrade him, then they need to overreact equally to every small sample and they don't. That's the part that doesn't make sense. And a guy who has shown over many years what kind of pitcher he isn't shouldn't be downgraded when he isn't even pitching bad.
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@trfatboy22_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
@YOSHI24_XBL My point is if they are going to overreact to a small sample and downgrade him, then they need to overreact equally to every small sample and they don't. That's the part that doesn't make sense. And a guy who has shown over many years what kind of pitcher he isn't shouldn't be downgraded when he isn't even pitching bad.
Again, give me a player that had a downward trend that was not changed and I will look at them too.
If chatgpt counted entries on the Roster Updates page correctly it said that 715 players had attribute changes and 233 players were downgraded, all based on the same sample size (talking time frame).
If Sonny Gray should not have been downgraded on that sample size then, sticking with the Cardinals, should the following players have been upgraded?
Nolan Arenado +1
Brendan Donavan +3
Lars Nootbaar +2
Ivan Hererra +2 (and he was injured for a chunk of that time)
Matthew Liberatore +7
Kyle Leahy +8
Phil Maton +2
Victor Scott +2 -
@trfatboy22_PSN Do not shoot the sender
!To get things straight: I like Sonny Gray a lot !!!
But after prox 5 years learning how this game and the attributes work, it is pretty easy to get it … to some degree.
First of all there is a very big difference between the attributes a player gets to start the season and in-season-up/downgrades.
Yearly the base the ratings on a long-time-basis (I think they said 3 year-span). That is why Sonny got his diamond in the first place. Is he a as good as Gerrit Cole? Judge for yourself
Now on to the in-season-upgrading:
This is strictly based on how Sonny started the year and how he fared in this current season
@Dolenz_PSN explained his stats very good in post #4
SDS takes some real-life-stats (I do not know which exactly) and then compare them to the values.
For example:- If his K/9 correlates to the K/9-game-stat and he actually has a lower strikeout rate this season … he will get downgraded on that stat
- If his H/9 is actually down, he will get downgraded on this stat too
- etc.
- After that, they sum it up and make an overall out of it. We also do not know which attribute matters more in this calculation.
Based on @Dolenz_PSN post, it is totally comprehensible that he lost a point. Again: It does not matter, how he fared before 2025. It only matters how he fared up to this point. And btw: This exact 4-week-span is the gauge on how SDS evaluates the next grades.
Last point: Yes, there are probably many examples we will never understand or that just stand out.
In my opinon,
… Mike Trout should get a higher downgrade on his contacts due to his low batting avg … But he is Mike Trout.
… Another good one, which explains the system very good: Mason Miller got upgraded from a bronze to a diamond last year (if I remember correctly). Yes, he is awesome, but he had not track record at all over multiple years … But, as I just tried to explain: That does not matter in-season (Miller‘s real-life-2024-stats were plain awesome) and that is why he got a diamond this year (for not having a 3-year-track-record)
… last one: Aaron Judge … based on his 3-year-real-life-performance … should probably have a 95 LS to start the year. His defensive stats have been kept artificially low. Yes, he is no PCA, but he is neither that slow nor does he have that bad of a fielding rating. But everybody (including me) projected him to be upgraded due to his awesome BATo end my post: Again, there are prob 100 players everybody disagrees … And: do not shoot the messenger, I still like Sonny :).
And please remember: I am not a native english speaker (and I do not use google translate ) -
@trfatboy22_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
I really don't understand the rational for downgrading a guy who is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA. It doesn't really matter because there are plenty of better SP options anyway I just don't really see the rationale here.
Outside of the 2 Met games, he hasn't faced a league-average offense yet this year. Going 3-0 w/ a 3.6 ERA isn't as impressive if he's only playing the equivalent of AA teams.
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@SaveFarris_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
@trfatboy22_PSN said in Sonny Gray:
I really don't understand the rational for downgrading a guy who is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA. It doesn't really matter because there are plenty of better SP options anyway I just don't really see the rationale here.
Outside of the 2 Met games, he hasn't faced a league-average offense yet this year. Going 3-0 w/ a 3.6 ERA isn't as impressive if he's only playing the equivalent of AA teams.
And: ERA and W/L are not rating-relevant (as it should be)
