NO diamond drops!!!
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@rabid55wolverine said in NO diamond drops!!!:
How can you see just how many packs you've opened?
Go to your pack history on the app. I did a quick count and I opened 163 packs and got 4 diamonds.
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@dap1234567890 said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@savefarris_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
“Siri, how do odds work?”
With a Masters degree I am pretty sure I know how odds work. The odds of opening 148 straight packs without getting a diamond pull is very low if the advertised odds of the show pack is 1/50. Either I am extremely unlucky, or there is a bug in the game, or the advertised odds are not actuality.
Apparently your Master's Degree doesn't work! Also, thinking you have a Master's Degree makes you smart is actually pretty dumb!
You are confusing "probability" and "odds"! Specifically you are thinking of theoretical probability when you are looking at pack odds and not realizing the difference between the terms. Pack odds are the same for each pack individually and is not affected by the number of packs you open.
your terms may be correct, but you should have also pointed out that the "probability" of getting at least 1 diamond when opening 148 packs is about 95%. So the odds/probability of not opening a pack in 148 attempts is 1/20
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@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@dap1234567890 said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@savefarris_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
“Siri, how do odds work?”
With a Masters degree I am pretty sure I know how odds work. The odds of opening 148 straight packs without getting a diamond pull is very low if the advertised odds of the show pack is 1/50. Either I am extremely unlucky, or there is a bug in the game, or the advertised odds are not actuality.
Apparently your Master's Degree doesn't work! Also, thinking you have a Master's Degree makes you smart is actually pretty dumb!
You are confusing "probability" and "odds"! Specifically you are thinking of theoretical probability when you are looking at pack odds and not realizing the difference between the terms. Pack odds are the same for each pack individually and is not affected by the number of packs you open.
your terms may be correct, but you should have also pointed out that the "probability" of getting at least 1 diamond when opening 148 packs is about 95%. So the odds/probability of not opening a pack in 148 attempts is 1/20
You are still confused...The probability of getting a diamond in a pack with 1:50 odds is 1.9608% or 98.0392% probability of not getting a diamond. Each pack opening is an independent event and is not affected by the number of times you open a pack.
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Nope, You are confused. While the opening of each pack is an independent event (meaning every time I open an individual pack the odds of getting a diamond in that pack is 1/50), the probability of getting a diamond in a pack does increase with repeated attempts. As you correctly stated, we are talking about probability
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Lets see if this works. The probability of pulling a diamond when you open a single pack as 2%, the probability of pulling a single diamond when you open 148 packs is 95%
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"I have a Masters Degree" -- Jesus, who cares?! And I went to the University of Chicago for grad school, and -- who cares?!
Here's what you're doing wrong, since it's not that difficult to identify: buying packs.
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Ok you have a Master's Degree. While that is great and congratulations on getting it done, without context or knowing what your degree is for how are we supposed to assume that gives you any more knowledge on odds or probabilities than the average Joe?
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@kovz88_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
Ok you have a Master's Degree. While that is great and congratulations on getting it done, without context or knowing what your degree is for how are we supposed to assume that gives you any more knowledge on odds or probabilities than the average Joe?
Seriously, though: you don't need anything other than common sense. I'm sure people have gone hundreds of packs without hitting. And given the 1:50 odds, that's not a huge surprise.
Or it shouldn't be, even if you have a Masters degree.
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I also have a master’s degree but that doesn’t make me an expert in everything. Heck, it doesn’t even makes me an expert in my field of study as there is a lot more you need to learn through experience that a piece of paper will never give you.
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@suntlacrimae50_mlbts said in NO diamond drops!!!:
"I have a Masters Degree" -- Jesus, who cares?! And I went to the University of Chicago for grad school, and -- who cares?!
Here's what you're doing wrong, since it's not that difficult to identify: buying packs.
Lmao you probably should because maybe you would have read any part of this thread instead just skimming through it like grad school.
He clearly said there from the Mystery map and wouldn’t considering buying packs when he’s in the lowest percentage of variance.
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Wow, leave for a while and all the trolls come out. I guess I need to be more clear.
1.) I posted here looking for information such as: a, is this happening to anyone else, b is there a problem with whatever technique was used by the programmers to randomize packs (one year I was in 25 fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN and I drafted in the 10 spot in 19 of them - problem with randomization), c, is there something I don't know (maybe I missed where packs from the mystery map don't contain diamonds). This is evident from my 2nd post where I asked "what am I doing wrong"
2.) Another poster felt the need to be sarcastic when posting his perception of how little knowledge I must have of statistics when he posted “Siri, how do odds work?”. I replied that I have a masters degree. I did not post that to make it seem like I am more intelligent than others, but to show that I did in fact have a working knowledge of statistical reasoning. The majority of post graduate degrees include some sort of thesis/paper in which research and statistical reasoning is involved. So regardless of what the field of study is, one could assume that any person with a masters degree probably has a working knowledge of statistics. I am sorry that some may have felt that is was a jab. Definitely was not, I was just trying to show that the the person who posted “Siri, how do odds work?” did know know what they were posting about.
3.) the fact is that although that pack odds are 1/50 for getting a diamond when each individual pack is opened. It is also true that the more packs you open, the probability of getting a diamond increases. There is a formula for this and that is what I used to figure out that if a person was to open 148 packs (where the odds of getting a diamond are 1/50 for each pack) their probability to get at least one diamond in those 148 packs would be 95%. So I am in the unlucky 5%
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Got a dude on my friends list. Don't really know him. Must have been a guy I befriended because he played legit. Not sure. But I swear I have seen his name on the app pulling a diamond 50 plus times and thats being generous. Yesterday alone he pulled 10 plus. He may be rich and buy packs like crazy. Not sure but its amazing to see. He pulled Acuna 3 times in one day and it was live series. Yet to see Trout but I don't look at it every time. I just think GD you lucky SOB!
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@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
Wow, leave for a while and all the trolls come out. I guess I need to be more clear.
1.) I posted here looking for information such as: a, is this happening to anyone else, b is there a problem with whatever technique was used by the programmers to randomize packs (one year I was in 25 fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN and I drafted in the 10 spot in 19 of them - problem with randomization), c, is there something I don't know (maybe I missed where packs from the mystery map don't contain diamonds). This is evident from my 2nd post where I asked "what am I doing wrong"
2.) Another poster felt the need to be sarcastic when posting his perception of how little knowledge I must have of statistics when he posted “Siri, how do odds work?”. I replied that I have a masters degree. I did not post that to make it seem like I am more intelligent than others, but to show that I did in fact have a working knowledge of statistical reasoning. The majority of post graduate degrees include some sort of thesis/paper in which research and statistical reasoning is involved. So regardless of what the field of study is, one could assume that any person with a masters degree probably has a working knowledge of statistics. I am sorry that some may have felt that is was a jab. Definitely was not, I was just trying to show that the the person who posted “Siri, how do odds work?” did know know what they were posting about.
3.) the fact is that although that pack odds are 1/50 for getting a diamond when each individual pack is opened. It is also true that the more packs you open, the probability of getting a diamond increases. There is a formula for this and that is what I used to figure out that if a person was to open 148 packs (where the odds of getting a diamond are 1/50 for each pack) their probability to get at least one diamond in those 148 packs would be 95%. So I am in the unlucky 5%
Yes you are in the unlucky 5% on conditional probability, but it helps to remember that the 2% applies at the highest level, meaning all pack openings across all users.
Your 148 packs is practically nil against the millions of packs that have been opened. And 5% of the total user base is a fairly big number of users.
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@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
Wow, leave for a while and all the trolls come out. I guess I need to be more clear.
1.) I posted here looking for information such as: a, is this happening to anyone else, b is there a problem with whatever technique was used by the programmers to randomize packs (one year I was in 25 fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN and I drafted in the 10 spot in 19 of them - problem with randomization), c, is there something I don't know (maybe I missed where packs from the mystery map don't contain diamonds). This is evident from my 2nd post where I asked "what am I doing wrong"
2.) Another poster felt the need to be sarcastic when posting his perception of how little knowledge I must have of statistics when he posted “Siri, how do odds work?”. I replied that I have a masters degree. I did not post that to make it seem like I am more intelligent than others, but to show that I did in fact have a working knowledge of statistical reasoning. The majority of post graduate degrees include some sort of thesis/paper in which research and statistical reasoning is involved. So regardless of what the field of study is, one could assume that any person with a masters degree probably has a working knowledge of statistics. I am sorry that some may have felt that is was a jab. Definitely was not, I was just trying to show that the the person who posted “Siri, how do odds work?” did know know what they were posting about.
3.) the fact is that although that pack odds are 1/50 for getting a diamond when each individual pack is opened. It is also true that the more packs you open, the probability of getting a diamond increases. There is a formula for this and that is what I used to figure out that if a person was to open 148 packs (where the odds of getting a diamond are 1/50 for each pack) their probability to get at least one diamond in those 148 packs would be 95%. So I am in the unlucky 5%
While probability says you should have accidentally had a few, probability doesnt have any effect and the odds didnt favor you. it is not unusual to go hundreds or even thousands of packs with no diamonds then pull 3 in 5 packs.
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I've opened approx 110 Show packs and pulled 3 LS Diamonds. I suppose that's right on the money where the odds would suggest real-life probability. In-game, it feels frustrating. I'm playing as much as I can around work and life schedules, but haven't had a good run of card flipping yet, so in-game stubs aren't building up massively and the pricier cards are out of my reach (except for the 3 I've found - Robert, Soto, and Judge). 10 of those 110 packs were earned by winning mini-seasons, and I haven't bought any packs, so the other 100 packs are split between the opening bonus and gameplay. It does feel like there are fewer packs in the gameplay flow than last year, but I don't have any numbers to back that up.
I think the grind of getting packs to open feels like harder work when there are published content streams out there doing two things simultaneously -- 1, having stacked teams already (and they show up in mini-seasons of course), and 2, having lots of packs to open (I haven't watched any content this year, but I'm sure the youtube and twitch accounts are still doing this). For most of us in the game, I suspect it's hard to achieve either of those things early in the game, let alone even 1 of the 2. Impossible for most of us then to compare to that and look at our own pack-opening and draw any meaningful conclusion other than failure (or, less harshly, super unlucky).
I'm not saying that's how I actually feel about it myself, but just that it would be a natural response seeing the 'luck' / 'success' / or even just the expenditure from some users stacking things early and knowing somehow that it's a competition based on a different set of conditions. It would just make the average player of the game feel pretty unlucky, even though the raw numbers tell me 3 LS Diamonds isn't so bad at this stage and I'm probably not unlucky at all. If I want to spend thousands in real money to change my luck, I guess I certainly could.
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@dap1234567890 said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@savefarris_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
“Siri, how do odds work?”
With a Masters degree I am pretty sure I know how odds work. The odds of opening 148 straight packs without getting a diamond pull is very low if the advertised odds of the show pack is 1/50. Either I am extremely unlucky, or there is a bug in the game, or the advertised odds are not actuality.
Apparently your Master's Degree doesn't work! Also, thinking you have a Master's Degree makes you smart is actually pretty dumb!
You are confusing "probability" and "odds"! Specifically you are thinking of theoretical probability when you are looking at pack odds and not realizing the difference between the terms. Pack odds are the same for each pack individually and is not affected by the number of packs you open.
You're an idiot...just saying
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Nope. Packs seem fine to me.
Pulled Judge, Bichette and Muncy yesterday all thru single packs.
Nothing good out of the Ballin is a Habit packs tho -
@coachpappy17_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
@savefarris_psn said in NO diamond drops!!!:
“Siri, how do odds work?”
With a Masters degree I am pretty sure I know how odds work. The odds of opening 148 straight packs without getting a diamond pull is very low if the advertised odds of the show pack is 1/50. Either I am extremely unlucky, or there is a bug in the game, or the advertised odds are not actuality.
You're extremely unlucky. I've pulled Live Series Trout on both Switch and Xbox for example.
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