Odds for Dummies.
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Thank you! Can't stand people saying "I opened 50 packs and did not pull a diamond. The odds say 1:50 so I should pull one diamond out of every 50 pack bundle."
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You can post this clear explanation of odds on here every month, but we will still see the "50 packs no diamond" posts forever.
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@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
Let’s break this down since this seems to be a reoccurring theme that people don’t seem to understand. 1:50 does not mean for every 50 packs you are guaranteed 1 diamond card. 1:15 does not mean you are guaranteed a diamond in BIAH.
1:50 is a 2% chance for every individual pack you open. Translation = No bueno.
1:15 I’ll round up and be generous and say you have a 7% chance to pull a diamond in every BIAH pack.
Hope this helps some people on here with their pack addiction. Don’t buy packs. You get plenty of free packs playing this game. If you feel the need to buy packs just Venmo me bc more times than not you’re throwing away your money.
Yes!!!!
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So, if I understand this correctly, for every standard pack you open, you have a 98% chance of not getting a diamond, and a 50% expectation of getting a diamond.
Got it.
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But what's the collective odds, you say? If I was to open 15 BIAH packs, what are my chances of at least one diamond? As someone who will be studying statistics, I'll show you.
1-(.93 (odds of a non diamond))^15
Simplify .93^15 first and you get about 0.34.
1-0.34= 0.66.
In other words, although each BIAH pack has a 1:15 chance of a diamond, you only have a 66% chance of a diamond if you were to open 15, because math.
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@kdclemson_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
But what's the collective odds, you say? If I was to open 15 BIAH packs, what are my chances of at least one diamond? As someone who will be studying statistics, I'll show you.
1-(.93 (odds of a non diamond))^15
Simplify .93^15 first and you get about 0.34.
1-0.34= 0.66.
In other words, although each BIAH pack has a 1:15 chance of a diamond, you only have a 66% chance of a diamond if you were to open 15, because math.
Stats is fun. Have thought about minoring in Stats many times but then I think about how long I've already gone to school for and I talk myself out of it.
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@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
Let’s break this down since this seems to be a reoccurring theme that people don’t seem to understand. 1:50 does not mean for every 50 packs you are guaranteed 1 diamond card. 1:15 does not mean you are guaranteed a diamond in BIAH.
1:50 is a 2% chance for every individual pack you open. Translation = No bueno.
1:15 I’ll round up and be generous and say you have a 7% chance to pull a diamond in every BIAH pack.
Hope this helps some people on here with their pack addiction. Don’t buy packs. You get plenty of free packs playing this game. If you feel the need to buy packs just Venmo me bc more times than not you’re throwing away your money.
I don’t get it
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@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@kdclemson_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
But what's the collective odds, you say? If I was to open 15 BIAH packs, what are my chances of at least one diamond? As someone who will be studying statistics, I'll show you.
1-(.93 (odds of a non diamond))^15
Simplify .93^15 first and you get about 0.34.
1-0.34= 0.66.
In other words, although each BIAH pack has a 1:15 chance of a diamond, you only have a 66% chance of a diamond if you were to open 15, because math.
Stats is fun. Have thought about minoring in Stats many times but then I think about how long I've already gone to school for and I talk myself out of it.
That's actually probably exactly what I'll end up doing, if I don't want to double major I'll just minor in Stats, my major is Business Management, also somewhere where numbers will be used a lot.
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@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@kdclemson_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
But what's the collective odds, you say? If I was to open 15 BIAH packs, what are my chances of at least one diamond? As someone who will be studying statistics, I'll show you.
1-(.93 (odds of a non diamond))^15
Simplify .93^15 first and you get about 0.34.
1-0.34= 0.66.
In other words, although each BIAH pack has a 1:15 chance of a diamond, you only have a 66% chance of a diamond if you were to open 15, because math.
Stats is fun. Have thought about minoring in Stats many times but then I think about how long I've already gone to school for and I talk myself out of it.
I was an accounting major and took two stats courses and another when I was going for my masters and I loved every moment of those classes. If I wasn’t already halfway done with my undergrad, I would have switched majors.
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@raylewissb47_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@kdclemson_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
But what's the collective odds, you say? If I was to open 15 BIAH packs, what are my chances of at least one diamond? As someone who will be studying statistics, I'll show you.
1-(.93 (odds of a non diamond))^15
Simplify .93^15 first and you get about 0.34.
1-0.34= 0.66.
In other words, although each BIAH pack has a 1:15 chance of a diamond, you only have a 66% chance of a diamond if you were to open 15, because math.
Stats is fun. Have thought about minoring in Stats many times but then I think about how long I've already gone to school for and I talk myself out of it.
I was an accounting major and took two stats courses and another when I was going for my masters and I loved every moment of those classes. If I wasn’t already halfway done with my undergrad, I would have switched majors.
Yup, I'm a Supply Chain Major and have gone to school for a while due to working a full time job and taking night classes. I always hated math but something about statistics clicked with me and I've loved every stats class I've taken. After about 8 years in college though I don't think I have another year in me to go get a minor. I'm 26 now graduating in December (finally) but maybe I'll reconsider lol.
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1:50 is not a fraction.
It does not mean 1/50
It does not mean 2%
1:5 vs 1:1 does not equal a 20% at the High tier Diamond in a choice pack.
They purposely use gambling odds as opposed to fractions too deceive everyone. The odds are much much lower than people even realize.
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
go ahead and type them in and see for yourself.
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@charterbus_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
1:50 is not a fraction.
It does not mean 1/50
It does not mean 2%
1:5 vs 1:1 does not equal a 20% at the High tier Diamond in a choice pack.
They purposely use gambling odds as opposed to fractions too deceive everyone. The odds are much much lower than people even realize.
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
go ahead and type them in and see for yourself.
1/50 odds just means theres 51 possible outcomes and of those 51 there will be 1 of one outcome and 50 of the other outcome so sure technically its slightly lower than a 2% chance (1.96%) but its all still the same odds as they show. The 1/5 odds is like 17% bc its out of 6 possible outcomes.
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@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@charterbus_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
1:50 is not a fraction.
It does not mean 1/50
It does not mean 2%
1:5 vs 1:1 does not equal a 20% at the High tier Diamond in a choice pack.
They purposely use gambling odds as opposed to fractions too deceive everyone. The odds are much much lower than people even realize.
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
go ahead and type them in and see for yourself.
1/50 odds just means theres 51 possible outcomes and of those 51 there will be 1 of one outcome and 50 of the other outcome so sure technically its slightly lower than a 2% chance (1.96%) but its all still the same odds as they show. The 1/5 odds is like 17% bc its out of 6 possible outcomes.
Ding ding. Don’t need no maff. Just gamble enough you’ll learn what odds are. Well hopefully
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@quinnymcquinn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
@charterbus_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
1:50 is not a fraction.
It does not mean 1/50
It does not mean 2%
1:5 vs 1:1 does not equal a 20% at the High tier Diamond in a choice pack.
They purposely use gambling odds as opposed to fractions too deceive everyone. The odds are much much lower than people even realize.
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
go ahead and type them in and see for yourself.
1/50 odds just means theres 51 possible outcomes and of those 51 there will be 1 of one outcome and 50 of the other outcome so sure technically its slightly lower than a 2% chance (1.96%) but its all still the same odds as they show. The 1/5 odds is like 17% bc its out of 6 possible outcomes.
Ding ding. Don’t need no maff. Just gamble enough you’ll learn what odds are. Well hopefully
If theres one thing having a crippling gambling addiction has taught me...
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@namtrah22_psn said in Odds for Dummies.:
Let’s break this down since this seems to be a reoccurring theme that people don’t seem to understand. 1:50 does not mean for every 50 packs you are guaranteed 1 diamond card. 1:15 does not mean you are guaranteed a diamond in BIAH.
1:50 is a 2% chance for every individual pack you open. Translation = No bueno.
1:15 I’ll round up and be generous and say you have a 7% chance to pull a diamond in every BIAH pack.
Hope this helps some people on here with their pack addiction. Don’t buy packs. You get plenty of free packs playing this game. If you feel the need to buy packs just Venmo me bc more times than not you’re throwing away your money.
You know better to come on here and use facts and actually numbers to support a point.
You are going to scare all the locals with all these numbers and hard facts
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The other part to remember is that the pack you open is not dependent on the previous pack you opened. They are all independent of each other. So every standard pack you open has the 1:50 odds. Opening multiple packs does not change that ratio on each pack.
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Here you guys go.
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A admin locked this topic on
