The Honus Effect - The current status of the market
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I don’t know if they’ll give us a break this year, but I could see them making Mays a big collection reward again.
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Good work... thanks for sharing.
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I didn't play 19, I know there was a collection for a good Honus card, but what was it exactly? Did it involve Team Affinity rewards? If so, wouldn't TA cards remain valuable if such a collection was released?
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@ComebackLogic said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
Great points, I should have mentioned that prices were going to rise inevitably, because I do agree another reason is simply returning from the low prices because of flash sales/half-priced packs.
But like I detailed, I do think it is a major factor. While yes there are people that like collecting every card, but last year we didn't see gold prices on cards that are no longer obtainable at this high of a level. Damon isn't 15k because of people who want every card, gold Damon is at 15k because people are afraid PS cards will spike like they did last year.
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@MathMan5072 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I think the Damon card is so high because people either locked him in with those original few collections or they exchanged him for TA affinity on accident or just because.
So, there are just none if those cards around. But, there are enough people like you and me and many other who just like collecting cards for the sake of collecting cards. The same thing happened with the silver machado.
If honus drops, it will most definitely have a bump in the market IMO, especially with the event rewards. People will lock in the event rewards initially because they will be cheaper than some of the other cards. But, since there aren’t any of those cards coming in, they will rise because of demand.
By my theory, eventually choo will be worth more than or close to dibble if a honus is released. Because dibble cards will continue to be released in the market, but choo cards won’t, but many will be unsellable because they got locked in as cheaper cards compared to dibble.
These are all just my guesses though. We don’t know if honus is coming, what choice packs are planned, or if flash sales will continue.
Def could see that happening, I just don't know how much excitement there will be if it is Honus again, how many people will decide it's worth it to lock in all those stubs versus trying to capitalize on the market? It could lead to an increase in people selling cards they've been putting off doing hoping Honus increases prices.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@ComebackLogic said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
Great points, I should have mentioned that prices were going to rise inevitably, because I do agree another reason is simply returning from the low prices because of flash sales/half-priced packs.
But like I detailed, I do think it is a major factor. While yes there are people that like collecting every card, but last year we didn't see gold prices on cards that are no longer obtainable at this high of a level. Damon isn't 15k because of people who want every card, gold Damon is at 15k because people are afraid PS cards will spike like they did last year.
The only rate gold card I can remember was the see Gordon card from one of the first events. But, other than that, you might be right.
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I wasn't;t around last year for the Honus drop. How extensive was the collection for each of the categories?
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@shuker23 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I wasn't;t around last year for the Honus drop. How extensive was the collection for each of the categories?
You needed roughly 75% of each card type (though there weren't prime or awards cards, so unsure how exactly it will be structured this year)
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Lmao bro go spend this time on something that can make you money
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@MathMan5072 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@ComebackLogic said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
Great points, I should have mentioned that prices were going to rise inevitably, because I do agree another reason is simply returning from the low prices because of flash sales/half-priced packs.
But like I detailed, I do think it is a major factor. While yes there are people that like collecting every card, but last year we didn't see gold prices on cards that are no longer obtainable at this high of a level. Damon isn't 15k because of people who want every card, gold Damon is at 15k because people are afraid PS cards will spike like they did last year.
The only rate gold card I can remember was the see Gordon card from one of the first events. But, other than that, you might be right.
Tony Perez? Maybe that was 18 but I remember his event reward gold going for almost 20k
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I've been flipping like crazy trying to get as many cards as I can in preparation for the collection. Based on how they did it last year, am i pretty close to where i need to be? Here's what I have so far:
Prime: 19 / 27
Sig: 11 / 15
Awards: 17 / 26
Rookie: 34 / 34
Breakout: 32 / 34
All Star: 34 / 38
Veteran: 32 / 33
Postseason: 18 / 22I also have all the players league cards, all the monthly rewards cards and six of the HR derby cards. The only place I'm slacking is FOTF and Future Stars, which I'm still nowhere near being finished with.
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@whitejw98 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I've been flipping like crazy trying to get as many cards as I can in preparation for the collection. Based on how they did it last year, am i pretty close to where i need to be? Here's what I have so far:
Prime: 19 / 27
Sig: 11 / 15
Awards: 17 / 26
Rookie: 34 / 34
Breakout: 32 / 34
All Star: 34 / 38
Postseason: 18 / 22I also have all the players league cards, all the monthly rewards cards and six of the HR derby cards. The only place I'm slacking is FOTF and Future Stars, which I'm still nowhere near being finished with.
Looking pretty good, I think somewhere around the 75% mark on each collection is your best bet. I'm not sure FOTF or FS will be in the collection, but that remains to be seen
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I agree with both. I think the prices are naturally inflating after all the flash packs/pack sales etc. I also think it's up because people are expecting a major collection. The market is just all types of crazy right now and volatile. Even the LS cards are kind of crazy, IMO, because of team affinities. I think more and more people are seeing exchanges as the way up the affinity ladder. I've been wanting to do some buying for that myself and have been watching those prices higher than I want (or higher than it was a few weeks ago when I started).
Honestly, I have some cards saved up for a major collection too, but I would rather they not have one this year. I have a lot of stubs invested there and they would lose value I'd guess. But I'd rather there not be a major collection. We'll see, I guess. The problem is not knowing. So those stubs are just sitting there in cards I don't use. What date would it have to reach for people to just think a collection reward isn't coming? I wish SDS would say something either way, though I know that won't happen.
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If would be better if they released a Honus type card for every collection series. Well the main ones.
Like rookie, breakout, veteran, All-star, postseason, prime, awards, and Sig.That would be a chance for 8 great cards
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I’m about 95% sure FS, FOTF, prospects, players league, and HRD cards would not be included in the ‘Honus’ collection. These cards already have a collect all reward and SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
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@pbake12 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I’m about 95% sure FS, FOTF, prospects, players league, and HRD cards would not be included in the ‘Honus’ collection. These cards already have a collect all reward and SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
Interesting thought. Prospect and players league are two places I have collected them all without locking in. I haven't bothered with HRD cards, yet. I see what you're saying about that final reward in those collections (also, it keeps a major collection reward simple in being tied to the usual collections). I doubt they'd add FS because that requires a bunch of affinity work. I could imagine FOTF now that they can be purchased. Good thoughts.
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@TlmEleSs_Jsaac said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
Lmao bro go spend this time on something that can make you money
Unless you are getting paid to be on this forum, just be quiet, hypocrite.
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Similar to the Stage 3 TA, I wouldn't be surprised if SDS throws a curveball, everyone knew this collection was coming and SDS knows people are hoarding rare cards in anticipation, point being, I don't know if collections will be the sole way of obtaining this programs card or cards, "Prepare your collections" could also be preparing for series specific stat grinds similar to other years. It seems odd they would give everyone like 2 weeks notice and keep the entire same format as last year.
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@pbake12 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I’m about 95% sure FS, FOTF, prospects, players league, and HRD cards would not be included in the ‘Honus’ collection. These cards already have a collect all reward and SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
I can see HRD and Players League not being required, I do think the others will be, Prospects will likely include the 30 gold ones from TA, FOTF I think will include more than 30 so people will have to choose whether to sell off their earned TA 3 cards or lock them in for the collection.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
I noticed Gold LS go way up and some high silver when the Monthly cards came out recently. Yeah the expectation of the Wagner Collection is a big effect on the market, Glad I bought some Diamonds early on that were going for Cheap. I do think the prices will rise with the collection when it drops, people will still want to complete it. How long prices will stay high is the question that depends on who it is.
