Pack Odds Study
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@CoachPappy17_PSN Interesting. Thanks for doing this.
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Halfway through June Update
279 The Show packs opened in June, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 5.58 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 4. The odds of getting 4 or fewer diamonds is about 35.7%. Although lower than advertised odds. This results is within norms.
45 Ballin packs opened in June, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 3.02 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 1. The odds of getting 1 or fewer diamonds is 18.7%. Significantly lower than advertised odds. This results is uncommon, but not rare at 1.2 deviations below the mean.
Notes
My pack opening has slowed since I altered my grind strategy to running quests instead of mini-seasons. I also got lucky and pulled Ohtani from a Headliner pack which allowed me to finish the live series and the Cabrera collection.I have had consistent poor luck in June and am wondering if SDS toned down the pack odds to combat the glitch exploiters. Hoping when all the "action" to punish those people have happened we may return to regular pack odds.
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C CoachPappy17_PSN referenced this topic on
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C CoachPappy17_PSN referenced this topic on
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I have had consistent poor luck in June and am wondering if SDS toned down the pack odds to combat the glitch exploiters.
Please don’t do this. Unless the pack odds have been expressed as changed, they are not changed.
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I have had consistent poor luck in June and am wondering if SDS toned down the pack odds to combat the glitch exploiters.
Please don’t do this. Unless the pack odds have been expressed as changed, they are not changed.
As I stated it was conjecture, not fact. There is no scientific theory without a hypothesis. I also don't have a problem if they did. It would keep the cheaters from benefitting too much while also helping the market.
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I also don't have a problem if they did. It would keep the cheaters from benefitting too much while also helping the market.
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I just wanted to say that I appreciate your tracking and analysis.
In case you did not know SDS actually posts the pull rates of every single card available in a pack.
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I just wanted to say that I appreciate your tracking and analysis.
In case you did not know SDS actually posts the pull rates of every single card available in a pack.
This has been mentioned and this link posted multiple times. Some on this forum don’t want to hear it.
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June Totals
646 The Show packs opened in June, expected diamonds pulled with 2% odds is 12.92 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 15. Getting 15 or fewer diamonds lands at the 77.25 percentile. This result is a bit above average, but far from being statistically unusual.
105 The Ballin packs opened in June, expected diamonds pulled with 6.7% odds is 7.04 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 5. The odds of getting 5 or fewer diamonds lies at about the 29.82 percentile. Although below average, this result is within the normal range of random variation, not unusually unlucky
Overall Totals
2665 The Show packs opened this year, expected diamonds pulled with 2% odds is 53.3 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 50. Getting 50 or fewer diamonds lands at the 34.67 percentile. This results is slightly below the expected value, so you could say it's a little unlucky, but only in the everyday sense—not in a statistically meaningful way. Random variation of this size is expected to happen frequently.
476 The Ballin packs opened this year, expected diamonds pulled with 6.7% odds is 31.89 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 28. The odds of getting 28 or fewer diamonds lies at about the 26.06 percentile. This result is generally considered normal, though somewhat below the expected value rather than especially unlucky.
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July Totals
677 The Show packs opened in July, expected diamonds pulled with 2% odds is 13.54 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 15. Getting 15 or fewer diamonds lands at the 70.00 percentile. This success rate is entirely consistent with random chance and would not be considered unusual. Added note, during the month I went over 200 show pack opening in a row without getting a diamond. This was offset by a hot streak where I pulled 8 diamonds in 124 packs.
106 The Ballin packs opened in July, expected diamonds pulled with 6.7% odds is 7.10 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 7. The odds of getting 7 or fewer diamonds lies at about the 56.2 percentile. 7 successes is one of the most typical outcomes you could observe.
Overall Totals
3342 The Show packs opened this year, expected diamonds pulled with 2% odds is 66.84 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 65. Getting 65 or fewer diamonds lands at the 43.4 percentile. A result this close to the mean is entirely typical. It provides no statistical evidence that the true success rate differs from 2%; it falls well within the normal variation you'd expect from random chance.
582 The Ballin packs opened this year, expected diamonds pulled with 6.7% odds is 38.99 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 35. The odds of getting 35 or fewer diamonds lies at about the 28.00 percentile. A result with a probability around 28% is not statistically unusual and is well within the range of normal random variation if the true success probability is 6.7%.
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Good stuff. I appreciate your efforts
