The Honus Effect - The current status of the market
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Good work on this. If a big collection like that comes im sure we will see cards spike when it becomes confirmed and some cheaper or rarer cards may rise a bit in the long run, but since it happened last year a d people expect it again I don't think things will permanently spike.
Take the damon and Hayward you mentioned. A gold like Damon too me is way overpriced for a collection at 15k, while I could see Hayward staying at 15k or rising a bit after a collection barring a flash sale. 15k for a good like Damon is already very expensive and will upset people so I have to imagine they will release some kind of way to get him if he's needed for a big collection
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Last year the Honus collection dropped 7/25 so last year it would be Friday which is the same day as the 6th inning being released. I have been buying up a few of the low diamonds that are only about 5k for the flashback and legends card. I do not see them doing Honus again just because it would be expected. I could see them doing a Babe Ruth or Jimmy Foxx someone who was a true game changing card that was very hard to obtain last year unless you got to WS or 12-0.
I am sure something is going to happen for some big collection but that question is when and if they drop it on the same day the 6th inning drops the market will go crazy.
I don't see the numbers being as high as last year like 80 breakouts because we do not have the extra cards from TA but we do have FOTF and Future stars and prospects.
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Its too bad you can't QS LS cards this year. I would QS every LS card I have to get Bonds in my lineup.
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I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
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I think the Damon card is so high because people either locked him in with those original few collections or they exchanged him for TA affinity on accident or just because.
So, there are just none if those cards around. But, there are enough people like you and me and many other who just like collecting cards for the sake of collecting cards. The same thing happened with the silver machado.
If honus drops, it will most definitely have a bump in the market IMO, especially with the event rewards. People will lock in the event rewards initially because they will be cheaper than some of the other cards. But, since there aren’t any of those cards coming in, they will rise because of demand.
By my theory, eventually choo will be worth more than or close to dibble if a honus is released. Because dibble cards will continue to be released in the market, but choo cards won’t, but many will be unsellable because they got locked in as cheaper cards compared to dibble.
These are all just my guesses though. We don’t know if honus is coming, what choice packs are planned, or if flash sales will continue.
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I don’t know if they’ll give us a break this year, but I could see them making Mays a big collection reward again.
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Good work... thanks for sharing.
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I didn't play 19, I know there was a collection for a good Honus card, but what was it exactly? Did it involve Team Affinity rewards? If so, wouldn't TA cards remain valuable if such a collection was released?
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@ComebackLogic said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
Great points, I should have mentioned that prices were going to rise inevitably, because I do agree another reason is simply returning from the low prices because of flash sales/half-priced packs.
But like I detailed, I do think it is a major factor. While yes there are people that like collecting every card, but last year we didn't see gold prices on cards that are no longer obtainable at this high of a level. Damon isn't 15k because of people who want every card, gold Damon is at 15k because people are afraid PS cards will spike like they did last year.
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@MathMan5072 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I think the Damon card is so high because people either locked him in with those original few collections or they exchanged him for TA affinity on accident or just because.
So, there are just none if those cards around. But, there are enough people like you and me and many other who just like collecting cards for the sake of collecting cards. The same thing happened with the silver machado.
If honus drops, it will most definitely have a bump in the market IMO, especially with the event rewards. People will lock in the event rewards initially because they will be cheaper than some of the other cards. But, since there aren’t any of those cards coming in, they will rise because of demand.
By my theory, eventually choo will be worth more than or close to dibble if a honus is released. Because dibble cards will continue to be released in the market, but choo cards won’t, but many will be unsellable because they got locked in as cheaper cards compared to dibble.
These are all just my guesses though. We don’t know if honus is coming, what choice packs are planned, or if flash sales will continue.
Def could see that happening, I just don't know how much excitement there will be if it is Honus again, how many people will decide it's worth it to lock in all those stubs versus trying to capitalize on the market? It could lead to an increase in people selling cards they've been putting off doing hoping Honus increases prices.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@ComebackLogic said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
Great points, I should have mentioned that prices were going to rise inevitably, because I do agree another reason is simply returning from the low prices because of flash sales/half-priced packs.
But like I detailed, I do think it is a major factor. While yes there are people that like collecting every card, but last year we didn't see gold prices on cards that are no longer obtainable at this high of a level. Damon isn't 15k because of people who want every card, gold Damon is at 15k because people are afraid PS cards will spike like they did last year.
The only rate gold card I can remember was the see Gordon card from one of the first events. But, other than that, you might be right.
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I wasn't;t around last year for the Honus drop. How extensive was the collection for each of the categories?
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@shuker23 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I wasn't;t around last year for the Honus drop. How extensive was the collection for each of the categories?
You needed roughly 75% of each card type (though there weren't prime or awards cards, so unsure how exactly it will be structured this year)
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Lmao bro go spend this time on something that can make you money
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@MathMan5072 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@ComebackLogic said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I also watch the market, even though I haven’t really flipped this year so far, going the pack route instead. While the market rise is undeniably real as you outlined, I don’t believe the impending “Honus” collection as you’ve dubbed it is the sole factor driving the resurgence, as a matter of fact, I don’t even think it’s one of the primary reasons. I feel like the main driving impetus behind prices rising is a natural recovery from the half price packs, headliner bundles and so on we’ve received lately. The market is simply correcting itself. I personally have a belief that SDS manipulate the market and set their own average prices and this is just padding average values before the big stub sale.
Leaving that pet theory aside, as many wont subscribe to the line of thinking, let’s look at the cards that aren’t useable, yet rise in price anyway. For a start, they’re no longer available except through the market. There’s a rarity element. Many will have been exchanged into team affinities and the like. You have people who like to collect every card in the game who may buy them. You have the hoarders, who believe, like yourself, they’ll be a part of a collection, so they’ll need one, or they’ll rise in price. Then you have cards like Andrew Jones, or Adam Dunn, where people may be a fan of the player and they’re yet to receive a diamond card this year.
Prices will fall off a cliff, but not until the stub sale and it’s impact have been and gone again, in my opinion.
Great points, I should have mentioned that prices were going to rise inevitably, because I do agree another reason is simply returning from the low prices because of flash sales/half-priced packs.
But like I detailed, I do think it is a major factor. While yes there are people that like collecting every card, but last year we didn't see gold prices on cards that are no longer obtainable at this high of a level. Damon isn't 15k because of people who want every card, gold Damon is at 15k because people are afraid PS cards will spike like they did last year.
The only rate gold card I can remember was the see Gordon card from one of the first events. But, other than that, you might be right.
Tony Perez? Maybe that was 18 but I remember his event reward gold going for almost 20k
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I've been flipping like crazy trying to get as many cards as I can in preparation for the collection. Based on how they did it last year, am i pretty close to where i need to be? Here's what I have so far:
Prime: 19 / 27
Sig: 11 / 15
Awards: 17 / 26
Rookie: 34 / 34
Breakout: 32 / 34
All Star: 34 / 38
Veteran: 32 / 33
Postseason: 18 / 22I also have all the players league cards, all the monthly rewards cards and six of the HR derby cards. The only place I'm slacking is FOTF and Future Stars, which I'm still nowhere near being finished with.
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@whitejw98 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I've been flipping like crazy trying to get as many cards as I can in preparation for the collection. Based on how they did it last year, am i pretty close to where i need to be? Here's what I have so far:
Prime: 19 / 27
Sig: 11 / 15
Awards: 17 / 26
Rookie: 34 / 34
Breakout: 32 / 34
All Star: 34 / 38
Postseason: 18 / 22I also have all the players league cards, all the monthly rewards cards and six of the HR derby cards. The only place I'm slacking is FOTF and Future Stars, which I'm still nowhere near being finished with.
Looking pretty good, I think somewhere around the 75% mark on each collection is your best bet. I'm not sure FOTF or FS will be in the collection, but that remains to be seen
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I agree with both. I think the prices are naturally inflating after all the flash packs/pack sales etc. I also think it's up because people are expecting a major collection. The market is just all types of crazy right now and volatile. Even the LS cards are kind of crazy, IMO, because of team affinities. I think more and more people are seeing exchanges as the way up the affinity ladder. I've been wanting to do some buying for that myself and have been watching those prices higher than I want (or higher than it was a few weeks ago when I started).
Honestly, I have some cards saved up for a major collection too, but I would rather they not have one this year. I have a lot of stubs invested there and they would lose value I'd guess. But I'd rather there not be a major collection. We'll see, I guess. The problem is not knowing. So those stubs are just sitting there in cards I don't use. What date would it have to reach for people to just think a collection reward isn't coming? I wish SDS would say something either way, though I know that won't happen.
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If would be better if they released a Honus type card for every collection series. Well the main ones.
Like rookie, breakout, veteran, All-star, postseason, prime, awards, and Sig.That would be a chance for 8 great cards
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I’m about 95% sure FS, FOTF, prospects, players league, and HRD cards would not be included in the ‘Honus’ collection. These cards already have a collect all reward and SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
