Some very depressing maths
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Randomized Odds
How it works: The outcome is determined dynamically in real-time by a Random Number Generator (RNG) the exact millisecond an event is triggered (e.g., when you hit a button). No outside influence can alter the result, and every attempt is statistically independent of the last.
Perception: Results feel completely random because the odds are reset and calculated at the moment of action.
Common Examples: Rolling a pair of dice, spinning a roulette wheel, and drawing cards from a freshly shuffled, physicalPredetermined Odds
How it works: All possible outcomes and the sequence of winning tickets are decided before a participant even interacts with the game. The overall math is fixed to guarantee a specific return-to-player or prize distribution over time.
Perception: The event creates an illusion of choice, but the backend system already knows what you will get.
Common Examples: Instant scratch-off lottery tickets, loot boxes, and certain digital card-pull systems. -
@ApolloZ_99_MLBTS Google randomized odds vs pre determined odds. MLB the show runs pack odds based off pre determined odds. Meaning the game gives you what it wants prior to opening a pack. Its not the same as random. Nothing about pack openings in this game is random. Most people that play this game are young or just not educated enough to understand this. Which is ok. But I know and now you know. The predatory nature is real.
It’s why I laugh when people say “you don’t understand odds and probabilities!” On here or Reddit
Yeah, I don’t understand predetermined probabilities, [censored]. Then I motion to my crotch, or my Dog’s.
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN exactly I just posted the difference above. This game for a fact has pre determined odds.
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@SpawnOfDitka_XBL Does that matter though? From an individual perspective, it will still be "random" unless they are specifically targeting your account to not receive something? The pre-determined nature of the odds only guarantees a deployment of a set number of each card, not necessarily to specific people, right? Regarding the back to back same 85 diamond you mention earlier, are you saying you think the game design is specifically to make sure that you don't get a diamond until you get a diamond elsewhere and then it gives you the same one? I know this is anecdotal, but I had a streak earlier this year of about 150 packs without a diamond and I had a streak with 3 diamonds in 30 packs. I have also pulled diamonds back to back a couple of times. It may have been pre-determined that that was the specific pulls my account was going to get on those specific packs, but still felt to me to be pretty random whether it was pre-determined or not.
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@wsudelt778_MLBTS pre determined odds as stated above gives you the illusion of randomness. I can assure you these pack odds are not random. Like I said still odds yes. But not the same as random. The diamond in your packs or if there is a diamond in your pack is already pre determined by their system before you even open the pack.
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@wsudelt778_MLBTS pre determined odds as stated above gives you the illusion of randomness. I can assure you these pack odds are not random. Like I said still odds yes. But not the same as random. The diamond in your packs or if there is a diamond in your pack is already pre determined by their system before you even open the pack.
Preach
Open packs at 6 AM EST vs. opening them in calling hours
Best bet is the 6 AM window
You want to open the packs at the end of their cycle. Where they make numbers work
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@SpawnOfDitka_XBL Understood. I guess I am not understanding the issue with it though. Whether you are scratching a lotto ticket or playing a roulette wheel, you still don't know the outcome prior to reveal. It is still exciting to play either, no?
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@wsudelt778_MLBTS its not as good. When I go to a casino I want random odds. Not pre determined odds. If you give me odds. I want them to be completely random.
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@SpawnOfDitka_XBL Totally fair perspective. Just wanted to better understand your position.
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@SpawnOfDitka_XBL Understood. I guess I am not understanding the issue with it though. Whether you are scratching a lotto ticket or playing a roulette wheel, you still don't know the outcome prior to reveal. It is still exciting to play either, no?
Yes. As a bonus. Problem these days is we all want to win the scratchy. And in this games case, the big win scratchy tulowotski plays the same as some dumb other card
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN Based on this knowledge, pre-determined odds would actually work in your favor. Because the math must balance, you get a decided advantage over anyone that does not follow this strategy. I think you are actually making an argument in favor of pre-determined odds! I will have to try this trick out. I got my Judge pull at 10:30 PST, but I haven't yet pulled Ohtani.
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Nope, I’m just pointing out factual experience in this game
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN Based on this knowledge, pre-determined odds would actually work in your favor. Because the math must balance, you get a decided advantage over anyone that does not follow this strategy. I think you are actually making an argument in favor of pre-determined odds! I will have to try this trick out. I got my Judge pull at 10:30 PST, but I haven't yet pulled Ohtani.
A lucky pull doesn’t have to be judge or Ohtani
It could be miller, Alvarez etc. just open your packs etc but do note if you want good pulls do it in the AM. Report results
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN But if that is a factual experience, then following that strategy would improve your odds beyond 1:50 to pull diamonds. That is a decided advantage. It would be akin to knowing the store the winning scratch ticket were sold at, but still not knowing which of the scratch tickets is the winner until scratched. Are you saying that you would rather have worse odds if it were totally random rather than pre-determined?! I will give you credit for sticking with your guns, but I definitely would love to take advantage anywhere I can to pull that elusive Ohtani!
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN I gotcha. I mean I have pulled all of my good pulls at night. I can't play in the AM. I would think there would be significantly more people taking advantage of this if they knew about it. I must be pretty lucky they don't or I wouldn't have pulled anyone haha.
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN But if that is a factual experience, then following that strategy would improve your odds beyond 1:50 to pull diamonds. That is a decided advantage. It would be akin to knowing the store the winning scratch ticket were sold at, but still not knowing which of the scratch tickets is the winner until scratched. Are you saying that you would rather have worse odds if it were totally random rather than pre-determined?! I will give you credit for sticking with your guns, but I definitely would love to take advantage anywhere I can to pull that elusive Ohtani!
Well, first off all a lottery has a governing body. Any idiot who say, steals a lottery ticket or murders a person who may have won forgets that
SDS has no governing body
Someone somewhere has to audit the tickets.
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I would rather have random odds. I dont want the game engine determining what I get. Pre determined odds can also mean the game knows you just pulled a judge and determine your odds of pulling another good card based off your pull results. Its completely predatory in nature.
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN But if that is a factual experience, then following that strategy would improve your odds beyond 1:50 to pull diamonds. That is a decided advantage. It would be akin to knowing the store the winning scratch ticket were sold at, but still not knowing which of the scratch tickets is the winner until scratched. Are you saying that you would rather have worse odds if it were totally random rather than pre-determined?! I will give you credit for sticking with your guns, but I definitely would love to take advantage anywhere I can to pull that elusive Ohtani!
Well, first off all a lottery has a governing body. Any idiot who say, steals a lottery ticket or murders a person who may have won forgets that
SDS has no governing body
Someone somewhere has to audit the tickets.
Besides all the bills and legislation passed about loot boxes that are regulated all over the world by each individual country?
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You mean the people just now aware of how much money their kids have spent on stupid [censored]?
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@JenkinMeyer_PSN But if that is a factual experience, then following that strategy would improve your odds beyond 1:50 to pull diamonds. That is a decided advantage. It would be akin to knowing the store the winning scratch ticket were sold at, but still not knowing which of the scratch tickets is the winner until scratched. Are you saying that you would rather have worse odds if it were totally random rather than pre-determined?! I will give you credit for sticking with your guns, but I definitely would love to take advantage anywhere I can to pull that elusive Ohtani!
Well, first off all a lottery has a governing body. Any idiot who say, steals a lottery ticket or murders a person who may have won forgets that
SDS has no governing body
Someone somewhere has to audit the tickets.
Besides all the bills and legislation passed about loot boxes that are regulated all over the world by each individual country?
Im not arguing with you other than to be fun. Its funny how all the legislation doesn’t amount to squat. Carry on
Opening a pack of MLB the Show 26 cards may as well have a warning labels on them: odds are you’re going to be disappointed and have cancer
Yet they make them rewards
