Which Struggling High-Payrolled Team Here is Most Likely to Make the Playoffs?
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New York Mets (9-19) - Devin Williams had an ERA in the 10.00s before this game, the rotation outside Nolan McLean is struggling, we just got swept by the Rockies, and Juan Soto is the only consistent bat in the lineup. We had a 12-game losing streak, our longest since 2002 (to put in retrospect David Wright was just drafted a year prior and Mike Piazza and Al Leiter were still both at the top of their game. Lindor is hurt, Bichette is looking like Zack Cozart in Anaheim with a better track record, and the rest of the lineup is MIA, albeit their payroll is second only to the Dodgers. 7.7% chance to make the playoffs as of now.
Philadelphia Phillies (9-19) - before the Mets dropping both games of their doubleheader against Colorado, Philly entered today as the worst team in baseball. They've dropped 10 of their last 11, every starter besides Cristopher Sanchez has an ERA over 5.00 at least, and the lineup is quite literally Harper, Schwarber...and Brandon Marsh. Nobody else barely scrapes an OPS over .700. They have the worst run differential in baseball and at one point dropped 8 in a row. Before today's loss their odds of making the postseason sit at a mere 16.4%.
Houston Astros (11-18) - Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, and Cristian Javier are all injured, only C-Walk, Yordan (who is hitting like a demigod right now), Correa (until he gets hurt again), and Altuve are producing anything close to offense, Pena's hurt, and Spencer Arrighetti and Peter Lambert are their two best starters right now. Bryan Abreu has an ERA in the 12.00s, Hader's injured, and Christian Vazquez has a higher OPS than everybody else on the team excluding Yordan. They have a 1.3% chance to make the playoffs.
Boston Red Sox (11-17) - they fired Alex Cora who obviously isn't to blame in this spot but somebody had to go. They dealt away Devers for scrubs except for Kyle Harrison, who they happened to trade for a guy (Caleb Durbin) who is putting up offensive numbers on par with 2023 Tim Anderson whilst Harrison looks like Nick Lodolo with a higher ceiling, to make room for Alex Bregman who they lost in FA anyway. Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu are the only two guys hitting in this lineup, the bullpen is a hot mess aside from Aroldis and Whitlock, last year's AL Cy Young runner-up has a 6.30 ERA and got tagged for ten in one inning at one point, their only starter with an ERA below 4.00 is Connelly Early (early-season skids maybe), and that supposed killer young core - Anthony, Mayer, and now Durbin...don't even have a combined OPS+ near 300. Their odds to make the playoffs are 56% right now.
San Francisco Giants (13-15) - they're doing much better after a very poor start but it's still worth noting that this team has a payroll well above 200 million. With a lineup that has Devers, Matt Chapman, early-season Wilmer Flores, and Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt is their best hitter. Logan Webb hasn't been the same, the two guys they spent plenty of cash on - Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser, have seemingly lost the plot, the other guy on the offensive end they spent 20.5 million for - Harrison Bader, is on the 10-Day IL with a -4 OPS+. That is not a typo. However, the one thing the Giants do have going for them is an incredibly dominant bullpen and the fact that Luis Arraez learned how to play defense. They have a 7.7% chance to make the playoffs. Figured it would be higher but I guess not. Let me know your thoughts. My money is on the Red Sox to hopefully turn it around. #firedumpsterDave -
not sure I can choose between NY and Philly right now cause I think both teams will figure it out but both are more likely to make it than all the other three imo (I don’t believe in the Giants or Astros at all)
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Would anyone be surprised if Philly went on to win 8 out of 10, maybe 15 out of 20 in the next month? They have the pitchers, sometimes it just needs to warm up and once you get into. May things click. The Mets are a dumpster fire. Houston pitching is reeling. Giants, sure, they are competitive and not too bad at the moment
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Need some breaks between each team to make it more readable
Phils are just done. They missed their chance 3 years ago.
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Just came in: Phillies fire Rob Thomson. Will be replaced by Don Mattingly, so I don't believe the Phillies will go far.
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Great write up OP. As a Red Sox fan I hope they dont turn it around and Breslow ends up getting fired. He might be a worse GM than Nico Harrison the former Mavs GM. A manager cant be blamed if he has nothing to work with and this guy has made a ton of headscratcher moves that you mentioned. If your goig to build your team around Bregman great but you better make sure he signs with you. Tons of youth on the team but that is not always a good thing. You have to have some vets to hold it together. You also cant have 5 OF on the field at once so how about trading one?
As for the rest of the list. Philly is just way too old. You cant keep falling short and running it back with mostly the same squad and think the results will be different. Crazy part is on paper they look amazing, they have starters, hitters and a lock down closer. Philly usually does make any huge plays at the deadline, acquiring Duran last season was huge and totally out of character. I dont see how they get over the hump with their current roster.
I dont ever see the Giants being relevant. Dodgers completly dominate that division and I think playing a home is actually a disadvantage to the team they have built. They overpay for mediocre free agents because no one wants to play their.
Astros have pretty much every abled body that can pitch on the DL. I guess if they could get healthy they could make some noise but they are in the same boat as the Phillys with a mid team that they seem to subtract from every offseason as they get older.
So my best guess is the Mets will turn it around. They suck, their offseason additions never really added up. Starting pitching is suspect, Devin Willaims is not a consitent closer, and they started their #1 Prospect Benge on opening day. I pick them only because I am sure they will make some trades and throw mony at problems so they sneak into the playoffs and are promptly eliminated.
