Lack of Diamonds in Show packs
-
Packs have always been streaky, but remember we are only a month into the game. My best pull has been Marte (still looking for the big ones like Trout, Ohtani, Witt and Judge). With that said I am NMS so far and have enjoyed the grind. Just keep playing and you will run on a diamond streak I am sure of it. One frustration that I have had this year is pulling program diamonds out of regular packs at a seemly higher rate than LS. I don't remember that being a thing last year or previous years.
-
I understand there are more low level diamonds. All I was saying is that the odds of getting the gatekeepers are basically slim to none. Sure they exist, but at way way worse than the 2% stated odds. I would guess the low level diamonds are 2% and those upper tier diamonds are more like 0.2% based on stub values and pull rate having played DD for 6 years and opened thousands of packs.
-
I'm in the middle of a real dry spell too.
Pulled a few low (85) diamonds the first two weeks, but then I got Skenes which helped my pack luck depression. Since then though, I've ripped probably 150-200 packs and the only diamond that came from those was Headliner Tanner Houck who I think was going for 3k.
-
@TripleH-4481_PSN said in Lack of Diamonds in Show packs:
I understand there are more low level diamonds. All I was saying is that the odds of getting the gatekeepers are basically slim to none. Sure they exist, but at way way worse than the 2% stated odds. I would guess the low level diamonds are 2% and those upper tier diamonds are more like 0.2% based on stub values and pull rate having played DD for 6 years and opened thousands of packs.
Where are the odds of a high level diamond stated as 2%? I have never seen that.
-
@SakAttack87_PSN said in Lack of Diamonds in Show packs:
I'm in the middle of a real dry spell too.
Pulled a few low (85) diamonds the first two weeks, but then I got Skenes which helped my pack luck depression. Since then though, I've ripped probably 150-200 packs and the only diamond that came from those was Headliner Tanner Houck who I think was going for 3k.
Quoting myself because I just pulled Trout. There is hope for us all.
-
I just opened 25 show packs and got 42 free agent players out of them. I know all packs can't be winners but I think its ridiculous how many free agents you get in these packs. Atleast give us a few more common or bronze players on actual teams instead. There are a few free agent players I noticed where I had 4,5,6 duplicates already this early in the game's cycle.
-
These companies can and DO juice packs.
The fact that so many were pulling 90-pluses from "4 79+ packs" in NHL '25 is a perfect example, but when the events were ending, packs weren't as juiced. Last season in HUT, late in the season, it seemed Iike every card series released were dumped in, causing '99' pulls galore. -
@Pergo_MLBTS The packs show odds of 1:50 odds for 85+ and 1:50 is the same as 2% chance (simple math here). The packs have had these odds displayed with the packs for at least the past 8 years. The other guy was just saying that the higher level diamonds are probably at 0.2% (which would be 1:500 odds using simple math) but did not say that SDS put that out there (it was just a guess from him).
-
Been a week and a half since I’ve had the game and I’ve pulled over 300 show packs and a number of others probably around 500 packs in total. The best card I got was a Kyle Tucker… love baseball but I may be done with it this year. Progress was way too slow and promotes micro transactions like crazy I love baseball but idk if my love for it is this strong. Plus with franchise being trash me and the boys may go back to collage football 25 and wait for CF 26
-
Never said that. I said that the 2% pull rate on diamonds is misleading because the odds of pulling a higher diamond are much much lower. If an 85 diamond is 1 in 50 packs then a high diamond is 1 in 500 or more packs. Considering those 85 diamonds are dirt cheap it artificially inflates the value of packs which most people know are basically worthless.
-
Exactly. Pergo is one of the SDS white knights that will defend them until the end. To each their own I’m just stating that SDS could be more transparent but that would cost them money as very few people would buy packs if they knew the true odds of getting that big pull.
-
@TripleH-4481_PSN It's not misleading at all. The odds are 2% as stated and with more low level diamonds in the game those will be pulled more often. It makes perfect sense. And I'm no "white knight" and do not defend SDS until the end. That's just a story you tell yourself to make yourself feel better about being wrong.
-
While I've had serious dry spells I feel like I'm pulling 2 or 3 a week. Before the weekend I pulled Zach Wheeler and Freddie Freeman. I play a lot and let packs build up for a day or two and then open them. So I'll open about 12 to 20 regular packs, 3 to 6 Ballin, and 2 or 3 Headliners at a time. Sometines get 1 or 2 diamonds, sometimes none for days....is this good luck to some or proof of conspiracy to others? I don't know I guess it depends on the individual. I think I'm having better luck than last but I can go on another long dry spell and I'll probably grab my tinfoil hat from the closet even though I know it's all about luck.
-
Idk if this is my luck or just a good idea but I let my packs marinate until I get like 40/50 of them, in my head I’m playing the odds and get atleast 1 diamond. And I stack headliners and Ballins until I get more then 5. When I open all the packs, I tend to get a few diamonds. So try that if you think packs are dead, my luck is never good when I pull just 1 pack and hope.
-
Looking through the inventory of diamonds available to be pulled from the standard show packs (on 4/13/2025), there are 64 between 85 and 89 while there is 4 that is 90 and above.
Final result: 1:849 odds...the probability is .0012... This means the chance of pulling a high diamond is 0.12%
From MathGPT...
Okay, let’s break down the calculation for the odds of getting a “high-grade diamond” in a single event.Initial Odds: The odds of getting a “diamond” (either low-grade or high-grade) are 1:50. This means for every 50 events, you expect to get a “diamond” once. So, the probability of getting any “diamond” is 1:50.
Number of Diamonds: Within the “diamond” category, there are 64 “low-grade diamonds” and 4 “high-grade diamonds”, making a total of 68 diamonds.
Probability of High-Grade Diamond: Since there are 4 high-grade diamonds out of the 68 total diamonds, the probability of getting a high-grade diamond given that you get a diamond is 1:17.Overall Probability of High-Grade Diamond: To find the overall probability of getting a high-grade diamond in a single event, we multiply the probability of getting any diamond by the probability of the diamond being high-grade: 1/50 * 1/17 = 1/850.
Converting to Odds: A probability of means there’s 1 favorable outcome for every 850 total outcomes. Therefore, the odds are 1:(850-1), which is 1:849.Therefore, the odds of getting a “high-grade diamond” in a single event are 1:849.
