Lack of Diamonds in Show packs
-
@LIONED-33_XBL said in Lack of Diamonds in Show packs:
I’ll say it again. Do I think SDS has manipulated pack luck? Yes. Go look at the market most non diamonds go for barely anything above quick sell. Which means they’ve flooded the market with non diamonds making it harder for players to earn stubs. They want you to buy stubs, and hey I get it no company is in it to break even. But pretending that it’s not going on is what’s annoying. Again last weekend I was on a hot streak. However, before that it was almost 400 packs no diamonds and I’m up to almost 200 packs now without a diamond
Pretending that it is going on is what's annoying. This happens every year. Anyone with bad luck tries to pretend it's because of some conspiracy rather than just understanding that sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't.
-
Change that to rarely you get lucky and most times you are unlucky and I agree. The diamond odds are extremely misleading because the live series diamonds over 85 are far less than 2%. That percentage applies to all diamonds with the 85s coming far more frequently. That keeps the gatekeepers sky high and the gamblers continue buying packs thinking eventually they will hit one of them. So my biggest issue is that the given odds are not as advertised.
-
@LIONED-33_XBL said in Lack of Diamonds in Show packs:
But pretending that it’s not going on is what’s annoying.
Totally agree. It's obviously happening. The evidence is not any 1 of our individual pack history. It's what you mentioned about how there are very few lower level cards much above quicksell. Just a few weeks ago there were a bunch of bronzes and silvers way above quicksell.
For the SDS fanboys, I KNOW there are worse companies for micro transactions. The rest of us just want someone to admit this is the worst it's ever been FOR THE SHOW. I'm still NMS but this is the first year I've been tempted, which is what they want.
If someone wants all/most of the best cards this year, they either need to spend $$ or have a massive amount of time for grinding (like I have).
-
Or spam diamond quest on goat difficulty an obscene amount of times. That isn’t an option for most players that aren’t way above average at the game.
-
@TripleH-4481_PSN There are more low level diamonds then there are high level diamonds so it makes sense that those show up more frequently.
-
Packs have always been streaky, but remember we are only a month into the game. My best pull has been Marte (still looking for the big ones like Trout, Ohtani, Witt and Judge). With that said I am NMS so far and have enjoyed the grind. Just keep playing and you will run on a diamond streak I am sure of it. One frustration that I have had this year is pulling program diamonds out of regular packs at a seemly higher rate than LS. I don't remember that being a thing last year or previous years.
-
I understand there are more low level diamonds. All I was saying is that the odds of getting the gatekeepers are basically slim to none. Sure they exist, but at way way worse than the 2% stated odds. I would guess the low level diamonds are 2% and those upper tier diamonds are more like 0.2% based on stub values and pull rate having played DD for 6 years and opened thousands of packs.
-
I'm in the middle of a real dry spell too.
Pulled a few low (85) diamonds the first two weeks, but then I got Skenes which helped my pack luck depression. Since then though, I've ripped probably 150-200 packs and the only diamond that came from those was Headliner Tanner Houck who I think was going for 3k.
-
@TripleH-4481_PSN said in Lack of Diamonds in Show packs:
I understand there are more low level diamonds. All I was saying is that the odds of getting the gatekeepers are basically slim to none. Sure they exist, but at way way worse than the 2% stated odds. I would guess the low level diamonds are 2% and those upper tier diamonds are more like 0.2% based on stub values and pull rate having played DD for 6 years and opened thousands of packs.
Where are the odds of a high level diamond stated as 2%? I have never seen that.
-
@SakAttack87_PSN said in Lack of Diamonds in Show packs:
I'm in the middle of a real dry spell too.
Pulled a few low (85) diamonds the first two weeks, but then I got Skenes which helped my pack luck depression. Since then though, I've ripped probably 150-200 packs and the only diamond that came from those was Headliner Tanner Houck who I think was going for 3k.
Quoting myself because I just pulled Trout. There is hope for us all.
-
I just opened 25 show packs and got 42 free agent players out of them. I know all packs can't be winners but I think its ridiculous how many free agents you get in these packs. Atleast give us a few more common or bronze players on actual teams instead. There are a few free agent players I noticed where I had 4,5,6 duplicates already this early in the game's cycle.
-
These companies can and DO juice packs.
The fact that so many were pulling 90-pluses from "4 79+ packs" in NHL '25 is a perfect example, but when the events were ending, packs weren't as juiced. Last season in HUT, late in the season, it seemed Iike every card series released were dumped in, causing '99' pulls galore. -
@Pergo_MLBTS The packs show odds of 1:50 odds for 85+ and 1:50 is the same as 2% chance (simple math here). The packs have had these odds displayed with the packs for at least the past 8 years. The other guy was just saying that the higher level diamonds are probably at 0.2% (which would be 1:500 odds using simple math) but did not say that SDS put that out there (it was just a guess from him).
-
Been a week and a half since I’ve had the game and I’ve pulled over 300 show packs and a number of others probably around 500 packs in total. The best card I got was a Kyle Tucker… love baseball but I may be done with it this year. Progress was way too slow and promotes micro transactions like crazy I love baseball but idk if my love for it is this strong. Plus with franchise being trash me and the boys may go back to collage football 25 and wait for CF 26
-
Never said that. I said that the 2% pull rate on diamonds is misleading because the odds of pulling a higher diamond are much much lower. If an 85 diamond is 1 in 50 packs then a high diamond is 1 in 500 or more packs. Considering those 85 diamonds are dirt cheap it artificially inflates the value of packs which most people know are basically worthless.
-
Exactly. Pergo is one of the SDS white knights that will defend them until the end. To each their own I’m just stating that SDS could be more transparent but that would cost them money as very few people would buy packs if they knew the true odds of getting that big pull.
-
@TripleH-4481_PSN It's not misleading at all. The odds are 2% as stated and with more low level diamonds in the game those will be pulled more often. It makes perfect sense. And I'm no "white knight" and do not defend SDS until the end. That's just a story you tell yourself to make yourself feel better about being wrong.
-
While I've had serious dry spells I feel like I'm pulling 2 or 3 a week. Before the weekend I pulled Zach Wheeler and Freddie Freeman. I play a lot and let packs build up for a day or two and then open them. So I'll open about 12 to 20 regular packs, 3 to 6 Ballin, and 2 or 3 Headliners at a time. Sometines get 1 or 2 diamonds, sometimes none for days....is this good luck to some or proof of conspiracy to others? I don't know I guess it depends on the individual. I think I'm having better luck than last but I can go on another long dry spell and I'll probably grab my tinfoil hat from the closet even though I know it's all about luck.
-
Idk if this is my luck or just a good idea but I let my packs marinate until I get like 40/50 of them, in my head I’m playing the odds and get atleast 1 diamond. And I stack headliners and Ballins until I get more then 5. When I open all the packs, I tend to get a few diamonds. So try that if you think packs are dead, my luck is never good when I pull just 1 pack and hope.
-
Looking through the inventory of diamonds available to be pulled from the standard show packs (on 4/13/2025), there are 64 between 85 and 89 while there is 4 that is 90 and above.
Final result: 1:849 odds...the probability is .0012... This means the chance of pulling a high diamond is 0.12%
From MathGPT...
Okay, let’s break down the calculation for the odds of getting a “high-grade diamond” in a single event.Initial Odds: The odds of getting a “diamond” (either low-grade or high-grade) are 1:50. This means for every 50 events, you expect to get a “diamond” once. So, the probability of getting any “diamond” is 1:50.
Number of Diamonds: Within the “diamond” category, there are 64 “low-grade diamonds” and 4 “high-grade diamonds”, making a total of 68 diamonds.
Probability of High-Grade Diamond: Since there are 4 high-grade diamonds out of the 68 total diamonds, the probability of getting a high-grade diamond given that you get a diamond is 1:17.Overall Probability of High-Grade Diamond: To find the overall probability of getting a high-grade diamond in a single event, we multiply the probability of getting any diamond by the probability of the diamond being high-grade: 1/50 * 1/17 = 1/850.
Converting to Odds: A probability of means there’s 1 favorable outcome for every 850 total outcomes. Therefore, the odds are 1:(850-1), which is 1:849.Therefore, the odds of getting a “high-grade diamond” in a single event are 1:849.
