WTF
-
@Dolenz said in WTF:
Assuming that ChatGPt gets the math correct
Further Analysis
YOU: At what point does the cumulative odd of finding a diamond reach 100%
ChatGPTCHAT GPT: The concept of cumulative odds reaching 100% is theoretically tricky because, in a scenario involving probabilities less than 1 (or 100%), the cumulative probability of an event occurring approaches, but never exactly reaches, 100% as the number of trials approaches infinity. For events with a probability that is not absolute (meaning anything less than 100% certainty per individual event), there's always a non-zero chance, however small, of the event not occurring.
However, in practical terms, when dealing with probabilities, we often consider a threshold close to 100% (such as 99.99%) to effectively mean "certain" for most intents and purposes.
Given the probability of finding a diamond in a pack is 1 in 50, or 2%, let's calculate how many packs you'd need to open to reach a cumulative probability of 99.99% of finding at least one diamond.
To reach a cumulative probability of 99.99% for finding at least one diamond, you would need to open approximately 456 packs. This calculation demonstrates the concept of diminishing returns, where each additional pack opened contributes less to the cumulative probability of finding a diamond, requiring a significantly large number of packs to approach certainty very closely.
Sorry for being that guy, but the odds are 1:50 which actually means 1 in 51 so it's slightly worse than this. I only mention it for the packs that show way better odds because it may say 1:3 but that's 25% not 33% etc. Only being that guy to help people not get tricked.
-
@Thongypu that's not true though. The game lists packs that are 100% guaranteed as 1:1 odds. The chance of getting a diamond player from a regular show pack is 2% and the 1:3 ones are 33%
-
https://journalfeed.org/article-a-day/2018/idiots-guide-to-odds-ratios/
1:1 is an exception not the rule and that stems from not being able to divide by 0.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds#Mathematical_relations
Should be 1:0 for 100% guaranteed.
-
Good Lord how many times does this need to be said every year? STOP BUYING PACKS!! They give you packs for free just for playing the game. Ive pulled 6 diamonds since Friday and you know how many of those were from packs i bought? Zero.
-
@Thongypu fair enough. I've never had to work with something expressed as odds, so I definitely defer to the actual math there. I'll stick to my decimals from now on and stay in my lane.
Even though showing 100% probability in terms of odds probably isn't very useful, it just doesn't make sense to me that there isn't a better, consistent way to represent it though.
And I'm curious, other than tricking the people who don't know how to interpret the x:y format, what practical benefits are there to using it vs giving the percentage chance? There must be some, I just can't come up with them.
-
@kapandykap said in WTF:
I just grinded for 4 days thought it would be cool to pack a 50. I got one gold card out of all 50 packs. One gold!!!!!!!!!! I couldn’t be more demoralized. Thanks SDS.
Yes it’s their fault. I bet you got to casinos lose and blame the casino
-
@SuntLacrimae50 Pretty sure it’s actually even less. It’s not 1/50 it’s 1:50 So it’s actually a 1/51 chance lol
-
@MAM8A-245300
They literally use the odds system from across the pond in the UK to trick people lol.
-
@DaboiNoah No, it was 1:50. Just as it has been since I started DD (2018).
-
@Thongypu I’ve always taken this as bad representation, but not the actual odds. I do believe they mean “1-in-50 chance” as opposed to “1-to-50 odds”. But I could be wrong, and god knows the video game industry has been extremely and purposely misleading about this stuff for years. Lawsuits have been filed and settled many times so to this.
Somewhere, the exact probability is listed because I believe by law it has to be. But again… I could be wrong.
-
@JDHalfrack said in WTF:
I do believe they mean “1-in-50 chance” as opposed to “1-to-50 odds”.
That is how I have always read it.
-
@dap1234567890 ya I guess your right, I would collect tons of those show packs and every like 30-45 I'd pull a diamond core player
-
A admin locked this topic on
