WTF
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I just grinded for 4 days thought it would be cool to pack a 50. I got one gold card out of all 50 packs. One gold!!!!!!!!!! I couldn’t be more demoralized. Thanks SDS.
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Sorry to hear, but that's the risk of buying packs and always has been. Can't blame SDS for that one.
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The Pack Gods are pleased.
According to our AP Stats teacher, a 50 pack with 2% odds to pull a diamond each pack yields a 50-pack probability of about 73% to pull 1 diamond out of those 50 packs. So that's about a 27% [edited, because MATH] chance to pull no diamonds. (His formula: 1 - (0.98 to the 50th power), where 0.98 is the probability of the event not happening and the exponent represents the number of attempts.)
There's the math. Don't buy 50 packs. A 27% chance to pull jack after 50 attempts is terrible odds....
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Packs are a stub sink. They are meant to be a stub sink. As such the odds are never in your favor when buying packs.
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@SuntLacrimae50 It would be 27%, but still, not a risk I'm willing to take.
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Don't feel bad between pre order packs and a gift card I had I opened 76 regular packs and not 1 Diamond. In addition I've earned about 10 more packs, 4 Ballin packs and a couple headliners.....no diamonds. That's some rotten luck
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Dude I had that bad luck for first 3 days, but then I got 3 diamonds yesterday. Just need to keep going.
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Don't buy packs especially with cash just open the ones you get for playing the game there's plenty of stubs to be had just playing the game and if you need more get to the flipping on the marketplace. I packed seager early than I sold him bought him back for 13k less sold him again for 10k profit and have done it 2-3 more times since for between 5-13k profit each time
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The problem with pack odds in most of these games is that there’s more to it than just luck per pack or luck per box. There are algorithms that factor in what you’ve pulled, what you already own, how long you’ve played, and likely how much money you’ve spent. No algorithms other than simple odds should ever be allowed to exist in these games. I also think that if you spend $100, you should be guaranteed to get something worth something. The other kicker is that they put other “player items” in packs that can be diamond level and ruin your chances of getting an actual diamond player. I used to praise The Show because at least they let buy stubs that you could actually use to just buy a player you want, but when you do the math about how much you are actually spending for a certain player it hurts your brain and wallet. I get it, it’s a business but it’s also a shady business.
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@MetalDoc17 said in WTF:
The problem with pack odds in most of these games is that there’s more to it than just luck per pack or luck per box. There are algorithms that factor in what you’ve pulled, what you already own, how long you’ve played, and likely how much money you’ve spent. No algorithms other than simple odds should ever be allowed to exist in these games. I also think that if you spend $100, you should be guaranteed to get something worth something. The other kicker is that they put other “player items” in packs that can be diamond level and ruin your chances of getting an actual diamond player. I used to praise The Show because at least they let buy stubs that you could actually use to just buy a player you want, but when you do the math about how much you are actually spending for a certain player it hurts your brain and wallet. I get it, it’s a business but it’s also a shady business.
Sorry to be "that guy," but do you have proof that an algorithm is in place that tweaks your odds by taking into account your profile????
My luck the past 3 years has been totally random. 2 years ago I pulled Trout 4 times, 3 times when he was at his peak. I never spent a cent on stubs. This year, not so much, though I have pulled Vlad Jr., Olsen, Kirsh, maybe a few others. None at 90+.
The odds suck. It FEELS unfair when it's just the odds.
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Pack drops are so RNG it's not even funny and we all have these moments ( many times ) but for the most part we all come running back this game is like a drug. It would be nice to have some RNG protection or something like in packs without a gold or diamond player there is like a card that if you turn in 10 you get a gold pack.
BTW -- I think this is a great idea and it's strange it seems the player base has better idea's how to fix / make game better then the people working on game.
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relatable. and yet, YouTubers are pulling diamond after diamond
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@blitz77tw said in WTF:
Pack drops are so RNG it's not even funny and we all have these moments ( many times ) but for the most part we all come running back this game is like a drug. It would be nice to have some RNG protection or something like in packs without a gold or diamond player there is like a card that if you turn in 10 you get a gold pack.
BTW -- I think this is a great idea and it's strange it seems the player base has better idea's how to fix / make game better then the people working on game.
We don't have "better" ideas; we have more consumer-friendly ideas. The way it is right now is much more profit-friendly. It is working as intended.
And exchanges do exist -- you can turn in x# of silvers for a random gold, etc.
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@MetalDoc17 said in WTF:
The problem with pack odds in most of these games is that there’s more to it than just luck per pack or luck per box. There are algorithms that factor in what you’ve pulled, what you already own, how long you’ve played, and likely how much money you’ve spent. No algorithms other than simple odds should ever be allowed to exist in these games. I also think that if you spend $100, you should be guaranteed to get something worth something. The other kicker is that they put other “player items” in packs that can be diamond level and ruin your chances of getting an actual diamond player. I used to praise The Show because at least they let buy stubs that you could actually use to just buy a player you want, but when you do the math about how much you are actually spending for a certain player it hurts your brain and wallet. I get it, it’s a business but it’s also a shady business.
None of this is true
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@DaboiNoah said in WTF:
relatable. and yet, YouTubers are pulling diamond after diamond
Editing. It's called editing
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@GixxerRyder750
man, that's cheap to record pack openings and then just edit just opening diamonds. -
I know you can but think about it if were turning those silvers into golds we cannot sell them ( Silvers) meaning we have to either work harder at flipping and/or maybe break down to buy stubs. This is why my idea will NEVER EVER happen and might not be the devs we see on the streams but on the higher exec levels when all they care about is $$$ and how they can get it from us.
Also FYI to these execs -- when were happy we tend to WANT to spend money on your game but when we are not then were like screw this game and your not getting another red cent out of us. It's just something to keep in mind SDS execs like I was going to buy 20 buck Stubs pack but since game is broken in places then -- NOPE.
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The chart above displays the cumulative odds of finding at least one item of each tier (Diamond, Gold, and Silver) as the number of packs opened increases from 1 to 50. As shown, the probability of finding at least one Diamond (rare item) increases gradually due to its lower chance per pack, whereas the odds of finding Gold and Silver items rise more steeply due to their higher probabilities per pack. This visualization illustrates how your chances improve with each additional pack you open for each item tier.
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Assuming that ChatGPt gets the math correct
Further Analysis
YOU: At what point does the cumulative odd of finding a diamond reach 100%
ChatGPTCHAT GPT: The concept of cumulative odds reaching 100% is theoretically tricky because, in a scenario involving probabilities less than 1 (or 100%), the cumulative probability of an event occurring approaches, but never exactly reaches, 100% as the number of trials approaches infinity. For events with a probability that is not absolute (meaning anything less than 100% certainty per individual event), there's always a non-zero chance, however small, of the event not occurring.
However, in practical terms, when dealing with probabilities, we often consider a threshold close to 100% (such as 99.99%) to effectively mean "certain" for most intents and purposes.
Given the probability of finding a diamond in a pack is 1 in 50, or 2%, let's calculate how many packs you'd need to open to reach a cumulative probability of 99.99% of finding at least one diamond.
To reach a cumulative probability of 99.99% for finding at least one diamond, you would need to open approximately 456 packs. This calculation demonstrates the concept of diminishing returns, where each additional pack opened contributes less to the cumulative probability of finding a diamond, requiring a significantly large number of packs to approach certainty very closely.
