The Honus Effect - The current status of the market
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@pbake12 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
I’m about 95% sure FS, FOTF, prospects, players league, and HRD cards would not be included in the ‘Honus’ collection. These cards already have a collect all reward and SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
I can see HRD and Players League not being required, I do think the others will be, Prospects will likely include the 30 gold ones from TA, FOTF I think will include more than 30 so people will have to choose whether to sell off their earned TA 3 cards or lock them in for the collection.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
I noticed Gold LS go way up and some high silver when the Monthly cards came out recently. Yeah the expectation of the Wagner Collection is a big effect on the market, Glad I bought some Diamonds early on that were going for Cheap. I do think the prices will rise with the collection when it drops, people will still want to complete it. How long prices will stay high is the question that depends on who it is.
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@pbake12 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
False. Last year, for the Honus Collection itself, new collection tiers were added to existing award structures.
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@SaveFarris said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@pbake12 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
False. Last year, for the Honus Collection itself, new collection tiers were added to existing award structures.
Not false, SDS did not add tiers to collections that had a card reward for collecting last year, only the ones that were stub/xp at final tier
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@SaveFarris said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@pbake12 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
SDS has never added a new reward for something that was already given a reward.
False. Last year, for the Honus Collection itself, new collection tiers were added to existing award structures.
Referring to the Collect all rewards, such as Prospects or players league. There is already a collect all reward, what more could they add. You said it yourself, they added tiers. No higher tier available then collect all...
Of course the ones with collect 10, such as Rookie cards, will have more added.
You can’t cut that sentence out of context man...
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So what's this stub sale gonna do to the market? I'm expecting the whole thing to just go nuclear and explode into oblivion.
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@Big_Daddy_Kaine said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So what's this stub sale gonna do to the market? I'm expecting the whole thing to just go nuclear and explode into oblivion.
Barring any flash sales, that's probably the best way to explain what the markets doing, if the collection is dope, it's going to get wild
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i use heyward all the time. he murders righties. speak for yourself OP.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
Since you have spent way more time on this than me. I am the big 5 NL players away from Mantle, I have enough for all of them but don't feel like spending 120K+ on each of them. Any idea when they will fall back down to the 90-100k mark?
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@MrLe17654 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
Since you have spent way more time on this than me. I am the big 5 NL players away from Mantle, I have enough for all of them but don't feel like spending 120K+ on each of them. Any idea when they will fall back down to the 90-100k mark?
Honestly, I have no idea, the Trout collection (while costing a lot), cost way less than I initially thought it would. Me along with many others were able to sell off so many cards while still completing the collection.
There are so many people with so many stubs right now, it'll take a ton of flash sales or a lot of time to die back down some.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@MrLe17654 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
Since you have spent way more time on this than me. I am the big 5 NL players away from Mantle, I have enough for all of them but don't feel like spending 120K+ on each of them. Any idea when they will fall back down to the 90-100k mark?
Honestly, I have no idea, the Trout collection (while costing a lot), cost way less than I initially thought it would. Me along with many others were able to sell off so many cards while still completing the collection.
There are so many people with so many stubs right now, it'll take a ton of flash sales or a lot of time to die back down some.
With so many people selling off cards though shouldn't that drive the price down? Or are more people now using those saved stubs to get Mantle?
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@MrLe17654 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@MrLe17654 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
Since you have spent way more time on this than me. I am the big 5 NL players away from Mantle, I have enough for all of them but don't feel like spending 120K+ on each of them. Any idea when they will fall back down to the 90-100k mark?
Honestly, I have no idea, the Trout collection (while costing a lot), cost way less than I initially thought it would. Me along with many others were able to sell off so many cards while still completing the collection.
There are so many people with so many stubs right now, it'll take a ton of flash sales or a lot of time to die back down some.
With so many people selling off cards though shouldn't that drive the price down? Or are more people now using those saved stubs to get Mantle?
Exactly, people selling off PS cards and such for high prices means they can afford to go after Mantle, which means the LS high cards are more in demand.
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@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@MrLe17654 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@MrLe17654 said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
Since you have spent way more time on this than me. I am the big 5 NL players away from Mantle, I have enough for all of them but don't feel like spending 120K+ on each of them. Any idea when they will fall back down to the 90-100k mark?
Honestly, I have no idea, the Trout collection (while costing a lot), cost way less than I initially thought it would. Me along with many others were able to sell off so many cards while still completing the collection.
There are so many people with so many stubs right now, it'll take a ton of flash sales or a lot of time to die back down some.
With so many people selling off cards though shouldn't that drive the price down? Or are more people now using those saved stubs to get Mantle?
Exactly, people selling off PS cards and such for high prices means they can afford to go after Mantle, which means the LS high cards are more in demand.
Alright, thanks for your help. I was dumb and should have gotten Mantle 2 weeks ago. Hopefully, prices go down by next weekend before I say screw it and get him anyway.
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Well, we now know it was the Trout collection, similar to the MLB19 Honus version. I've almost got him, glad I was prepared (and your instincts were spot on, thanks)
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