More Free Packs=Lower Odds
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@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
Ok... get a standard deck of 52 cards and take 2 out. Let's say the ace of spades is in the 50 cards and this represents a diamond player. Have someone shuffle the cards and you choose one card and your goal is to select the ace of spades. After selecting the card you put it back in the deck and it is reshuffled for the next card draw. Do this 50 times and let me know how many times you select the ace of spades. This is what the odds are based on.
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@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.
I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.
I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.
Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.
I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.
I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck
Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol
So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:
43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packsResults:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 KershawSafe to say my pack luck hasn't improved
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.
I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.
I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.
Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.
I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.
I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck
Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol
So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:
43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packsResults:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 KershawSafe to say my pack luck hasn't improved
That was how my last opening went too. I did save up enough stubs to get the NL Central done so that's a plus.
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Some back of the napkin math....
You have a .98^100 of opening 100 packs and not getting a diamond. That is around 13 percent.
You have a .98^200 chance of opening 200 packs and no getting a diamond. That’s around 2 percent.
You have a .98^268 chance of opening 268 packs and not getting a diamond. That is around 0.5% or 1 out of 200.
Do with those numbers what you will.
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@davisonkj17 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
With all the free packs being handed out in every program, TA, and event.....The odds written on the packs still say the same but it would make sense to keep the market viable the odds have been skewed....
I was bored at work and thanks to the show nation website showing every pack you have opened this year in game and online I did the numbers some packs: I did not include the show packs, twitch packs or TA packs
SilverLiners Packs: 89, Silver Players: 69, Gold Players: 26, Diamond: 9 (Yates-89 x 2, Morton-85, Flaherty-85, Acuna-89 x 2, Judge-88, Harper-85, Baez-86) There was a month gap between Diamond pulls
Golden Habit Packs: 23, Gold Players: 25, Diamond: 1 (Strasburg-87 on March 17th)
2 Flash Sale Packs: Baez-86 and Altuve-85
Prospect Packs: 7- Low Tier x6, Mid Tier x1
I hope my pack luck turns around when I get to the Team Affinity Packs and Golden Habit packs for each team
How has everyone else been doing with the "special" packs
I got 2 diamond in a BIAH pack during the last conquest a believe. I posted on here becuase I was happy and they deleted it. Idk why.
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I haven’t bought a single pack this year, my luck was mostly [censored] until last night. Last night I had 32 slandered slacks 2 BIAH packs and 1 headliner pack. I got nothing in the BIAH and headliner packs, but I pulled 3 diamonds in the standard packs (Strausburg, Flahtery, and Scherzer) before that I think I had pulled 5 or less diamonds all year and they were all low tier diamonds.
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@davisonkj17 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
With all the free packs being handed out in every program, TA, and event.....The odds written on the packs still say the same but it would make sense to keep the market viable the odds have been skewed....
I was bored at work and thanks to the show nation website showing every pack you have opened this year in game and online I did the numbers some packs: I did not include the show packs, twitch packs or TA packs
SilverLiners Packs: 89, Silver Players: 69, Gold Players: 26, Diamond: 9 (Yates-89 x 2, Morton-85, Flaherty-85, Acuna-89 x 2, Judge-88, Harper-85, Baez-86) There was a month gap between Diamond pulls
Golden Habit Packs: 23, Gold Players: 25, Diamond: 1 (Strasburg-87 on March 17th)
2 Flash Sale Packs: Baez-86 and Altuve-85
Prospect Packs: 7- Low Tier x6, Mid Tier x1
I hope my pack luck turns around when I get to the Team Affinity Packs and Golden Habit packs for each team
How has everyone else been doing with the "special" packs
I haven't spent a single stub on a pack this year. But in free packs, I've gotten the following diamonds: Judge, Bregman, Morton, Baez, Matt Chapman, Aroldis Chapman, and Pete Alonso. Plus a lot of golds that I won't bother to count. But no 90+ or even 89+ diamonds thus far
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@davisonkj17 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
With all the free packs being handed out in every program, TA, and event.....The odds written on the packs still say the same but it would make sense to keep the market viable the odds have been skewed....
I was bored at work and thanks to the show nation website showing every pack you have opened this year in game and online I did the numbers some packs: I did not include the show packs, twitch packs or TA packs
SilverLiners Packs: 89, Silver Players: 69, Gold Players: 26, Diamond: 9 (Yates-89 x 2, Morton-85, Flaherty-85, Acuna-89 x 2, Judge-88, Harper-85, Baez-86) There was a month gap between Diamond pulls
Golden Habit Packs: 23, Gold Players: 25, Diamond: 1 (Strasburg-87 on March 17th)
2 Flash Sale Packs: Baez-86 and Altuve-85
Prospect Packs: 7- Low Tier x6, Mid Tier x1
I hope my pack luck turns around when I get to the Team Affinity Packs and Golden Habit packs for each team
How has everyone else been doing with the "special" packs
Where can you find that info about how many packs I have opened? -
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
Ok... get a standard deck of 52 cards and take 2 out. Let's say the ace of spades is in the 50 cards and this represents a diamond player. Have someone shuffle the cards and you choose one card and your goal is to select the ace of spades. After selecting the card you put it back in the deck and it is reshuffled for the next card draw. Do this 50 times and let me know how many times you select the ace of spades. This is what the odds are based on.
and this was confirmed where?
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@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
Ok... get a standard deck of 52 cards and take 2 out. Let's say the ace of spades is in the 50 cards and this represents a diamond player. Have someone shuffle the cards and you choose one card and your goal is to select the ace of spades. After selecting the card you put it back in the deck and it is reshuffled for the next card draw. Do this 50 times and let me know how many times you select the ace of spades. This is what the odds are based on.
and this was confirmed where?
This is confirmed everywhere as this is how probability works. Not really hard to understand. The probability of getting a diamond player is around 2% but the probability of not getting a diamond player is 98% PER PACK.
It even says on the pack odds screen about the probability of getting diamond, gold, silver, or bronze players.
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My pack luck has been pretty good this year. 29 pages of packs and 13 diamond player pulls. A few diamond equipments too. No 90+ pulls though.
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Good gosh. How depressing to look at pack history. Almost 3 commons every time. I wish we could see each other's pack history. So we can know we aren't the only ones pulling junk . Lol.
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@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
Ok... get a standard deck of 52 cards and take 2 out. Let's say the ace of spades is in the 50 cards and this represents a diamond player. Have someone shuffle the cards and you choose one card and your goal is to select the ace of spades. After selecting the card you put it back in the deck and it is reshuffled for the next card draw. Do this 50 times and let me know how many times you select the ace of spades. This is what the odds are based on.
and this was confirmed where?
This is confirmed everywhere as this is how probability works. Not really hard to understand. The probability of getting a diamond player is around 2% but the probability of not getting a diamond player is 98% PER PACK.
It even says on the pack odds screen about the probability of getting diamond, gold, silver, or bronze players.
I understand probability, but the math doesn't add up, by your "probability" diamonds would be pulled roughly once every 1000 packs or so. I don't get one every 50 packs, but if i totaled up my packs i'd say it been close to 1 in every 60-65 packs, which shoots your claim to shame. So once again, where is it confirmed? Are the odds they list per pack or....what they're claiming the amount of packs to pull one is?
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@dantheranman said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
After playing the USA conquest map for the 8th time (at least) I finally got a diamond pull (from these specific free packs) but it was Trout. I had to double check my inventory in the middle of the night to make sure it wasn't a dream haha
Do packs in conquest refresh every time you Restart?
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@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
Ok... get a standard deck of 52 cards and take 2 out. Let's say the ace of spades is in the 50 cards and this represents a diamond player. Have someone shuffle the cards and you choose one card and your goal is to select the ace of spades. After selecting the card you put it back in the deck and it is reshuffled for the next card draw. Do this 50 times and let me know how many times you select the ace of spades. This is what the odds are based on.
and this was confirmed where?
This is confirmed everywhere as this is how probability works. Not really hard to understand. The probability of getting a diamond player is around 2% but the probability of not getting a diamond player is 98% PER PACK.
It even says on the pack odds screen about the probability of getting diamond, gold, silver, or bronze players.
I understand probability, but the math doesn't add up, by your "probability" diamonds would be pulled roughly once every 1000 packs or so. I don't get one every 50 packs, but if i totaled up my packs i'd say it been close to 1 in every 60-65 packs, which shoots your claim to shame. So once again, where is it confirmed? Are the odds they list per pack or....what they're claiming the amount of packs to pull one is?
Obviously you don't... as your 1 in roughly a 1000 packs "math" suggests.
Pack odds screen has your confirmation which I mentioned before:
The probability of this pack containing 1 or more of the following items
1:50 85 Diamond or better Player Item
1:10 80 Gold or better Player Item
1:3 75 Silver or better Player Item
1:1 65 Bronze or better Player ItemProbability = the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible. So it is likely that you would get 1 diamond player out of 50 packs, but it isn't a guarantee. You could get between 0-50 diamond players from 50 packs.
Pack is singular, that means 1, so per pack... nothing there about how many packs it should take, or any guarantee of a diamond player in your next 50 packs.
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@vagimon said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@dantheranman said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
After playing the USA conquest map for the 8th time (at least) I finally got a diamond pull (from these specific free packs) but it was Trout. I had to double check my inventory in the middle of the night to make sure it wasn't a dream haha
Do packs in conquest refresh every time you Restart?
no, the only repeatable reward is the 10 pack from completing the U.S.A. map again
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@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.
I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.
I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.
Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.
I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.
I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck
Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol
So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:
43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packsResults:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 KershawSafe to say my pack luck hasn't improved
Next round of stockpiled packs:
22 regular
57 Team Affinity
13 Silver Player packs
1 Gold player pack
3 Headliners
7 Ballin is a HabitResults:
37 silver players
14 gold players (9 from BiaH packs)
0 diamondsNo luck again
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Then why would I get one every time I bought a real box of 24 packs and the odds were 1:24?
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@davisonkj17 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
With all the free packs being handed out in every program, TA, and event.....The odds written on the packs still say the same but it would make sense to keep the market viable the odds have been skewed....
I was bored at work and thanks to the show nation website showing every pack you have opened this year in game and online I did the numbers some packs: I did not include the show packs, twitch packs or TA packs
SilverLiners Packs: 89, Silver Players: 69, Gold Players: 26, Diamond: 9 (Yates-89 x 2, Morton-85, Flaherty-85, Acuna-89 x 2, Judge-88, Harper-85, Baez-86) There was a month gap between Diamond pulls
Golden Habit Packs: 23, Gold Players: 25, Diamond: 1 (Strasburg-87 on March 17th)
2 Flash Sale Packs: Baez-86 and Altuve-85
Prospect Packs: 7- Low Tier x6, Mid Tier x1
I hope my pack luck turns around when I get to the Team Affinity Packs and Golden Habit packs for each team
How has everyone else been doing with the "special" packs
What are Silver Liner and Golden Habit packs? -
@royalslover said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
Then why would I get one every time I bought a real box of 24 packs and the odds were 1:24?
Wow, now you are just being a douche. You know very well a box is 24 packs. You also know they seed 1 per box. By common business practice they list the odds as 1 in 24. Not everyone buys a full box. Some by few packs here and there.
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The real question is how many common free agent cards do you now have? The real red herring of pack scams and skewed odds.
