@Dolenz said in WTF:
Assuming that ChatGPt gets the math correct
Further Analysis
YOU: At what point does the cumulative odd of finding a diamond reach 100%
ChatGPT
CHAT GPT: The concept of cumulative odds reaching 100% is theoretically tricky because, in a scenario involving probabilities less than 1 (or 100%), the cumulative probability of an event occurring approaches, but never exactly reaches, 100% as the number of trials approaches infinity. For events with a probability that is not absolute (meaning anything less than 100% certainty per individual event), there's always a non-zero chance, however small, of the event not occurring.
However, in practical terms, when dealing with probabilities, we often consider a threshold close to 100% (such as 99.99%) to effectively mean "certain" for most intents and purposes.
Given the probability of finding a diamond in a pack is 1 in 50, or 2%, let's calculate how many packs you'd need to open to reach a cumulative probability of 99.99% of finding at least one diamond.
To reach a cumulative probability of 99.99% for finding at least one diamond, you would need to open approximately 456 packs. This calculation demonstrates the concept of diminishing returns, where each additional pack opened contributes less to the cumulative probability of finding a diamond, requiring a significantly large number of packs to approach certainty very closely.
Sorry for being that guy, but the odds are 1:50 which actually means 1 in 51 so it's slightly worse than this. I only mention it for the packs that show way better odds because it may say 1:3 but that's 25% not 33% etc. Only being that guy to help people not get tricked.