Do card pack odds get audited by any independent regulators?
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Yes, for sure. Ohtani and Judge were listed odds of 1/12,500. So that percentage is waaaayyy lower than pulling 85 Max Fried. Lower diamonds have much higher pull rates which is how the 1:50 odds is technically correct but not player friendly.
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@TripleH-4481_PSN That right there is the crux of my issue then. Not all diamond cards are created equally. It would be like entering a raffle to win a new car. Sure, you might have 1 in 10,000 chance of winning a car, but let's say there are 100 cars getting raffled off. Of those 100 cars, 99 of them are Geo Metros, while the other 1 car is a Mercedes S-Class. Sure, both are cars, but not the same calibre.
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Yep and I bet most people don’t realize that. It’s in the fine print but people think they have the same odds to pull all diamonds when that isn’t close to the case.
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Just so everyone can learn something. 50-1 odds in NO WAY means that out of 50 packs you are guaranteed a diamond pull. What odds mean is that for EVERY 1 pack it contains a 50-1 chance that it contains a diamond pulls. It is still a chance and luck factor, and why it is possible to both go WAY over the odds in not pulling a diamond and then also pull 5 diamonds in 10 packs. Odds are not a guarantee, so please stop acting like it is fraud when it is just luck. What better odds get more packs by grinding
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It could also mean 80-1 today, 50-1 tomorrow, 20-1 the next day---just average out over a period of time. There's no way of doing anything but speculating. What I can say is that, even when the odd rates stay the same, I get better pulls as the games progress toward the end of each cycle.
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They should do a grief system like the gacha games do - where you’re guaranteed 1:50 if you don’t get one naturally.
I think that’s where some confusion lies is some people read the odds as gacha games do.
Which is part of all of these companies’ cash grab is to expect parents to teach odds to gacha gamers and sometimes the gacha gamers are the parents themselves playing candy crush for more playtime.
So then you just have a legion of idiots you hope procreate - and then make bank.
Idiocracy did it well with “Ow, My Balls!” We’re just now entering the mid stage of that era.
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@TripleH-4481_PSN
The odds for each pack only include players, and you can see the true odds of pulling every single card possible out of a pack in the marketplace -
@TripleH-4481_PSN That's where they get you then. I personally think it's a bit misleading, and all cards in a category should be equal odds for getting pulled.
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@Rhyno1986_XBL Thanks, I know how statistics work. I have a masters degree in engineering and maths were of course a major component of my program. Sure, in one sample of 50 pack pulls, indeed, a diamond may not be pulled. However, when we are looking at 50,000 packs, statistically, there should be between 950 and 1050 diamond cards pulled from that sample size, in order for it to fall within a generous 5% margin distribution.
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@Rhyno1986_XBL Thanks, I know how statistics work. I have a masters degree in engineering and maths were of course a major component of my program. Sure, in one sample of 50 pack pulls, indeed, a diamond may not be pulled. However, when we are looking at 50,000 packs, statistically, there should be between 950 and 1050 diamond cards pulled from that sample size, in order for it to fall within a generous 5% margin distribution.
But no one posting “the odds can’t be right?!?!?!” or “SDS needs to be audited!!!!!” has opened 50,000 packs. I would be VERY surprised, based off of previous lawsuits, if SDS was lying about the odds. They do other sneaky [censored] that’s totally within the law, that they don’t need to lie about the pack odds.
Also, as others have said, no one comes on here bragging about the amount of diamonds they get when it’s against the odds. To be honest, I feel like I’ve had amazing pack luck this year compared to last year. And last year I had terrible pack luck compared to the year before that.
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I’m an auditor and the question OP asked is a valid one. Oversight in this day and age is a rarity, and there’s no way to prove anything quickly.
Show me a balance sheet and I can show you where the money is/was/will be.
If I were auditing them I’d look for (their odds %) against reported income.
If they’re lying it’d show up very quickly.
You give them a dollar for a pack. 1.00. So bank has a dollar. How did they report that 1.00 - they haven’t given you anything in return so they must report that 1.00 as income somewhere because they’ve given you nothing.
That’s what stubs are it’s what any player card is - nothing but profit and laugh your way to the bank.
Then do the same next year
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@Rhyno1986_XBL Thanks, I know how statistics work. I have a masters degree in engineering and maths were of course a major component of my program. Sure, in one sample of 50 pack pulls, indeed, a diamond may not be pulled. However, when we are looking at 50,000 packs, statistically, there should be between 950 and 1050 diamond cards pulled from that sample size, in order for it to fall within a generous 5% margin distribution.
Well for someone who has a masters then you'd know now your talking about average and not odds. Because the average is made up of ALL packs opened where I'm sure it is probably right around 1-50. Bit that doesn't mean 1 single persons odds will fall in the statistical range. But you knew that too I'm sure.
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You do know you can calculate averages and see if they fall within the expected odds as I was clearly demonstrating, right? That's precisely how and audit would be conducted.
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You know what's kind of funny?
Last year I went the entire game cycle without pulling a single Live Series card selling for more than 15K. It had me wondering if something behind the scenes could impact odds, maybe tied to marketplace activity or something. No clue, just a thought.
Also a few years ago I put in a ticket because my Scouting Report packs weren't showing up. I followed up, heard nothing... and then the next week I randomly pulled 3 Chase packs from standard packs and hit the Chase player (Elly) in all three. Never got a response to the ticket, but the timing was pretty wild.
This year I actually started off hot. Pulled Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and a couple other good diamonds early. Then my account got caught up in that marketplace bot restriction stuff and it took about a week to fix.
Since then my pack luck has been basically nonexistent. I’ve opened a few hundred packs, probably 40-50 Ballin' packs, and got one diamond which was Junior Caminero.
Not saying anything is definitely going on, but the swings feel kinda crazy. Curious if anyone else has had a similar experience or if this is just RNG doing its thing.
