Hard Hit Balls (95+ MPH) Shouldn’t Be Routine Fly Outs – The Data Doesn’t Support It
-
So the MLB The Show team has expressed that they want the most realistic simulation possible. And I feel they have taken leaps and bounds with 25 and from what I’m seeing 26 is building on it which is always great to see. However there is one lingering issue when it comes to hitting that I feel needs to be addressed in 26 that was such an issue all year in 25. “Hard Hit Balls.”
In MLB The Show, “hard hit balls” (95+ mph exit velocity) frequently result in routine fly outs and weak pop ups. That becomes frustrating when 70%+ of my good swings are 95+ mph and still turn into outs.
I actually looked into the real-world data on exit velocity, and here’s what it shows:
Real MLB Data on 95+ MPH Exit Velocity:
• 95+ mph overall: Roughly 50% of balls hit 95+ mph become hits.
• 95–99 mph range: ~.337 batting average with strong extra-base hit rates.
• 100–109 mph range: Batting average jumps to over .550.
• 110+ mph range: Batting average exceeds .700, often near .745.
• A 1 mph difference (94 vs 95 mph) can significantly change outcomes (from ~.265 to over .300).
• Launch angle matters heavily — “barreled” balls (95+ mph with optimal launch angle) have an even higher success rate.So when 95–105 mph balls in-game are consistently turning into lazy fly outs or line outs, it feels disconnected from real-life results. In real MLB data, balls hit that hard are extremely productive especially once you get into the 100+ mph range.
I completely understand that gameplay balance matters and by no means am I suggesting it would always be a hit or 90% of the time be a hit. Because I’m assuming yall have years of baseball knowledge as do it. Often you can do everything right but it just doesn’t land. I can understand “hard outs.” But if hard-hit balls are going to be labeled as such, their outcomes should reflect how impactful they are in real baseball.
Right now it feels like exit velocity isn’t being rewarded at a rate that matches real-world performance, which can make good input feel meaningless.
Would love to hear if others are seeing similar results.
-
@TimmyPlays8366_XBL
I dont know what parks you are playing in but 95+ mph fly balls are home runs and xbhs at much higher rates than the ones you mentioned. 95-99 mph flyballs are homeruns around a 70% of the time in my experience -
There's also launch angle , you could hit a 100 mph pop up
-
According to Baseball Savant
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_hit_probability- At 95 MPH - In 2025 players were 1,013 for 3,832 on these for a .264 average
- At 100 MPH - In 2025 players hit .410 on these. 982 singles and 713 XBH so singles are still the norm
- At 110 MPH - The Average is 684 and the 297 singles and 455 XBH (262 HRs)
From the link above the difference between 94 MPH ad 95 MPH is .248 to .264
Now, should SDS strive to always make the hitting engine better? Yes.
I don't believe that is an easy task though if you are trying to simulate the outcome and make the game look and play well. A game like Out of The Park Baseball probably has an easier time with it because it does not need to take user input into the equation. -
It’s not exit velos, it’s fielding being coded by people who have never watched a baseball game or passed a physics class. Infielders being able to take 3-4 full steps to catch 105mph line drives is a huge problem in this game.
-
@TimmyPlays8366_XBL said in Hard Hit Balls (95+ MPH) Shouldn’t Be Routine Fly Outs – The Data Doesn’t Support It:
So the MLB The Show team has expressed that they want the most realistic simulation possible. And I feel they have taken leaps and bounds with 25 and from what I’m seeing 26 is building on it which is always great to see. However there is one lingering issue when it comes to hitting that I feel needs to be addressed in 26 that was such an issue all year in 25. “Hard Hit Balls.”
In MLB The Show, “hard hit balls” (95+ mph exit velocity) frequently result in routine fly outs and weak pop ups. That becomes frustrating when 70%+ of my good swings are 95+ mph and still turn into outs.
I actually looked into the real-world data on exit velocity, and here’s what it shows:
Real MLB Data on 95+ MPH Exit Velocity:
• 95+ mph overall: Roughly 50% of balls hit 95+ mph become hits.
• 95–99 mph range: ~.337 batting average with strong extra-base hit rates.
• 100–109 mph range: Batting average jumps to over .550.
• 110+ mph range: Batting average exceeds .700, often near .745.
• A 1 mph difference (94 vs 95 mph) can significantly change outcomes (from ~.265 to over .300).
• Launch angle matters heavily — “barreled” balls (95+ mph with optimal launch angle) have an even higher success rate.So when 95–105 mph balls in-game are consistently turning into lazy fly outs or line outs, it feels disconnected from real-life results. In real MLB data, balls hit that hard are extremely productive especially once you get into the 100+ mph range.
I completely understand that gameplay balance matters and by no means am I suggesting it would always be a hit or 90% of the time be a hit. Because I’m assuming yall have years of baseball knowledge as do it. Often you can do everything right but it just doesn’t land. I can understand “hard outs.” But if hard-hit balls are going to be labeled as such, their outcomes should reflect how impactful they are in real baseball.
Right now it feels like exit velocity isn’t being rewarded at a rate that matches real-world performance, which can make good input feel meaningless.
Would love to hear if others are seeing similar results.
Three words: REAL WORLD DATA
Cant compare real world data with video game data.
-
Or balls floating in the air letting outfielders run down or cut off every ball in the gap or throw frozen ropes from the fence to the infield making triples almost nonexistent.
The fielders didn’t use to cover as much ground and balls didn’t use to hang as bad in previous games. I’ve been playing a good amount of 21 and this issue wasn’t nearly as glaring. The field played bigger and made for a more realistic hitting environment. It wasn’t as much home run or bust.
-
Great point, but IIRC 21 and prior had the 35 foot dives from infielders, which was every bit as annoying as hanging flies just from a different direction
-
The super dives didn’t get bad until 23. The dives didn’t cover as much ground in 21 or 22 and they didn’t get up and gun you down to boot.
