Pack luck...again
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That's not how pack odds work. Doesn't matter if you open one pack or a million. Your odds are 1:50 for that pack and that pack alone
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I've had great pack luck this year so far tbh.
NMS and just the other night from a Show pack pulled Judge after getting my first mini seasons done.
I've also pulled Trout,both the 99 which I saved up for the pack to buy and the Live Series after completing conquest and getting enough stubs to buy a bundle.
Idk what my rate is but I've gotten lucky this year. -
BIAH is 1:15, I think. Remember, odds refer to 85-89 diamonds, not to 90+.
I'm NMS. Was hot early on -- 2 LS Ohtanis -- then had a massive dry spell. Bought a 50 and got Tatis from the Chase. So that's probably it for the year!
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@GixxerRyder750 said in Pack luck...again:
That's not how pack odds work. Doesn't matter if you open one pack or a million. Your odds are 1:50 for that pack and that pack alone
People say this and think it’s a revelation or something. Of course the pack odds are for each pack. But if the odds stated 1:50 and nobody ever pulled a diamond in the game would you say it’s fishy? After all it’s only a 2% chance. Of course you would. So why if it takes 100 to 150 consistently to pull diamonds do people say “well the odds are per pack”. If the actual pull odds are a constant outlier than the stated odds are not correct. If your betting money on a coin flip and always have tails and it flips heads 100 times you better check that coin because while possible the probabilities say that’s it’s virtually impossible.
Now with that said the pull odds don’t even matter anymore. The problem with packs vs odds is the payouts don’t correlate with odds. If 90% of the time you don’t pull a diamond you lose 80+% of the pack value and 95+% of the time you pull a diamond it returns 400% it’s basically just a scam with a guaranteed loss. For example I just got a 5 from the wheel. I pulled 1160 in stubs from that 5 pack. And that includes getting a chase pack that gave a gold. 5 packs and didn’t even get back one pack worth of stubs.
So in conclusion , never open packs with stubs, every time you get a regular pack for a reward just pretend it’s 300 stubs per and 1k per for a biah and you’ll never be disappointed. If they ever give a choose as a reward of stubs or packs take the stubs. But “the odds reset for every pack” is basically the same as saying nothing. Everybody already knows that.
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The number of people who play, pull diamonds, and never post on this forum...something to think about. Pulling a 90+ when those odds are probably more like 1:500...something to think about.
Most people "know" that 1:50 refers to every individual pack, but they post based on feelings and perceptions. Not this OP, but many others. It's not a scam. Everything's pretty much up front. Buying packs is never a good idea. Pulling a diamond is gravy.
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@SuntLacrimae50_MLBTS said in Pack luck...again:
BIAH is 1:15, I think. Remember, odds refer to 85-89 diamonds, not to 90+.
I'm NMS. Was hot early on -- 2 LS Ohtanis -- then had a massive dry spell. Bought a 50 and got Tatis from the Chase. So that's probably it for the year!
Somewhat similar, I pulled 2 Trouts early, and LS Manny when he was higher priced. But have been cold since
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Pulled a Chase pack yesterday.... Gold LS Nola
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@GixxerRyder750 said in Pack luck...again:
That's not how pack odds work. Doesn't matter if you open one pack or a million. Your odds are 1:50 for that pack and that pack alone
But it is how the Law of Large Numbers works. The Law of Large Numbers says that if you open a large number of packs, your realized results should converge to the expected results. That is, if the odds of pulling a diamond is 1/50, then you should get about 1 diamond every 50 packs if you open a large number (say 10,000) of them. That's what OP is trying to test, and why we need more data.
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Best I've had is Gary Carter from a diamond duo pack.
No rare rounds in the 5 or so ATW packs.
Two low diamonds from chase packs.
Gold is a Habit packs are just that, gold.
One day I decided to buy 2 50 bundles, not even a single diamond aside from gasp Vlad Jr, who I already sold 20 of the previous day.
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SDS can't win when it comes to packs... I prefer packs because I like to be surprised with who I get. It takes me back to my childhood when I purchased packs from the various stores in my neighborhood.
I just find it funny that players will complain about pack odds knowing that they can get the players they want directly from the marketplace... now in the case of free packs you still get the same odds as a pack that you purchase so with a free pack you get all profit if you opt to sell those players/items and you can go to the market and get the players you want.
But more so than that, the issue I have with some people, in particular when I'm watching a pack opening on YouTube are the amount of players that will pull a diamond or multiple diamonds and get mad that they didn't pull one of the higher valued guys. This year I have had two 99 pulls and the rest ranging from 85-88.
If you buy packs and/or grind for packs you already know what you are getting into.
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I pulled the data for 22. I opened 2,420 The Show packs. I got 82 diamonds. 5 pairs of those have the same timestamp, so they could have been in the same pack. Or not, I could have opened 2 packs within the same minute. Either way, it doesn't make a big difference and I'm not going to try to figure it out, so let's use 82.
That's 3.2% of packs had a diamond. Guess I was lucky last year. That's 34 more diamonds than expected.
Those 2,420 packs gave me 9,680 player cards. The rarity breakdown by card:
0.85% Diamond
2.65% Gold
7.35% Silver
36.21% Bronze
53.30% CommonI think I see why they don't seem very rewarding.
For BIAH packs, I opened 475 packs, pulling 88 diamonds. Again, there may be some double diamond packs here, but that's about 18.5% of packs had a diamond. I had 111 packs of BooC that contained 67 diamonds, about 60%. I did get Trout out of one of those, but not until January when he wasn't worth nearly as much.
Well, those are the numbers. A lot of packs, but still a small number compared to all the packs opened.
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I teach language, not math, but I'm thinking that any "Law of Big Numbers" refers to REALLY big numbers. Not numbers like how many packs I rip in a cycle of MLB the Show.
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@SuntLacrimae50_MLBTS said in Pack luck...again:
The number of people who play, pull diamonds, and never post on this forum...something to think about. Pulling a 90+ when those odds are probably more like 1:500...something to think about.
Most people "know" that 1:50 refers to every individual pack, but they post based on feelings and perceptions. Not this OP, but many others. It's not a scam. Everything's pretty much up front. Buying packs is never a good idea. Pulling a diamond is gravy.
You said not OP but immediately responded to OP with that’s not how it works.
Also it is 100% a scam. When you have a 0% chance to come out ahead it is a scam. If you want to call it gambling of some sort let’s make a new word for it. How about scrambling. So they 100% run a scam in the pack store with stubs. They get a pass because they allow you to buy the currency with money but as far as their packs they are no better than EA or 2K. Could you imagine giving $100 for two 50 bundles and pulling 50k if you are lucky. And make no mistake it is in SDS’ best interest to [censored] on their customers as much as possible to push IAPs. Pretty much every industry with that kind of business is heavily regulated but somehow these video game companies get away with it. Probably because they are all located in California.
Now again it is what it is. I don’t care either way. It’s a game, I’m not going for anything and I’m far more likely to turn it off and not touch it again than give them a dollar so they can do whatever they want for all I care. They can explain why their game is dead in a month.
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@jeffstified_XBL said in Pack luck...again:
I was going to post this in the recent pack luck thread, but that one seems to have gone off the rails. So, here's a new one (probably some result, tho).
Anyway, I got the data from open pack history of my account page. I've opened 330 The Show packs (none bought) and have pulled 12 diamond items, 5 of which were players (Hader, Vlad, Helsley, Tucker, and Kershaw). All diamonds from different packs.
3.6% of packs have had diamond items. But, I think the odds are just for players, not sure. In that case, 1.5% of packs have contained a diamond player. That's under the 2% stated odds, but it's a small sample size. I guess I've been a little unlucky.
For biah packs, I've opened 57, 11 had diamonds, 1 of those had 2 diamonds. So, 19.3% packs contained at least 1 diamond. I'm not sure what the odds are for these packs, but that's a lot better than The Show packs.
Anyway, I wish more people would get the actual data. If we had more data, I'm sure we'd see rates in line with stated odds.
You pulled 11 diamonds in 57 ballin packs?? I’ve opened 71 and pulled 2 low end diamonds
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@GoTitans3_XBL said in Pack luck...again:
@SuntLacrimae50_MLBTS said in Pack luck...again:
The number of people who play, pull diamonds, and never post on this forum...something to think about. Pulling a 90+ when those odds are probably more like 1:500...something to think about.
Most people "know" that 1:50 refers to every individual pack, but they post based on feelings and perceptions. Not this OP, but many others. It's not a scam. Everything's pretty much up front. Buying packs is never a good idea. Pulling a diamond is gravy.
You said not OP but immediately responded to OP with that’s not how it works.
Also it is 100% a scam. When you have a 0% chance to come out ahead it is a scam. If you want to call it gambling of some sort let’s make a new word for it. How about scrambling. So they 100% run a scam in the pack store with stubs. They get a pass because they allow you to buy the currency with money but as far as their packs they are no better than EA or 2K. Could you imagine giving $100 for two 50 bundles and pulling 50k if you are lucky. And make no mistake it is in SDS’ best interest to [censored] on their customers as much as possible to push IAPs. Pretty much every industry with that kind of business is heavily regulated but somehow these video game companies get away with it. Probably because they are all located in California.
Now again it is what it is. I don’t care either way. It’s a game, I’m not going for anything and I’m far more likely to turn it off and not touch it again than give them a dollar so they can do whatever they want for all I care. They can explain why their game is dead in a month.
First of all, it is, quite literally, NOT a scam if they post the odds right up front. Literally. Not.
Second of all, I bought a 50 pack and pulled Tatis out of a Chase pack, so I came out way ahead. Like 170K stubs ahead.
It's a game of chance and it's not mandatory or obligatory. Early in the year when you're building out the LS, it's much more of a good deal. If you have that done, it's NEVER a good deal. And unless you're a complete idiot or whiny and immature, you realize that the game is rigged against you from the beginning -- just like ALL games of chance are. In all of them it's a near certainty that you NEVER will "come out ahead." Is anybody actually confused about this? That's why when you SEE a diamond pop up, you get excited -- because you got one AGAINST THE ODDS.
Jesus, it's not difficult to understand. It's not a scam. Just don't give them money and open up what you get for free. Or buy packs only with house money.
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@Scar_USMC77_PSN said in Pack luck...again:
@jeffstified_XBL said in Pack luck...again:
I was going to post this in the recent pack luck thread, but that one seems to have gone off the rails. So, here's a new one (probably some result, tho).
Anyway, I got the data from open pack history of my account page. I've opened 330 The Show packs (none bought) and have pulled 12 diamond items, 5 of which were players (Hader, Vlad, Helsley, Tucker, and Kershaw). All diamonds from different packs.
3.6% of packs have had diamond items. But, I think the odds are just for players, not sure. In that case, 1.5% of packs have contained a diamond player. That's under the 2% stated odds, but it's a small sample size. I guess I've been a little unlucky.
For biah packs, I've opened 57, 11 had diamonds, 1 of those had 2 diamonds. So, 19.3% packs contained at least 1 diamond. I'm not sure what the odds are for these packs, but that's a lot better than The Show packs.
Anyway, I wish more people would get the actual data. If we had more data, I'm sure we'd see rates in line with stated odds.
You pulled 11 diamonds in 57 ballin packs?? I’ve opened 71 and pulled 2 low end diamonds
The 'data' OP refers to, such as it is or would be, is pretty meaningless when everyone's experience of the odds in play is different. There is no trend to track. You're either opening a good pack or a bad one, and then the same again, and the same again. Tallying up the numbers to support the odds in real time doesn't mean anything unless your direct experience is in line with those odds (or not). Even if someone's pack luck lines up with the odds over a certain period of time, it's no predictor of future results.
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I've pulled 99 Tatis twice, LS Trout twice, Ohtani three times.
Every pack has the same odds. If you open 1 or 1 billion, each pack has a 1/50 chance.
My free pack from daily log ins two days ago had a Judge in it.
Just because you've never hit the jackpot on a slot machine does not mean the next guy won't. It's 100 percent timing, nothing else.
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@lucas8181_PSN said in Pack luck...again:
I've pulled 99 Tatis twice, LS Trout twice, Ohtani three times.
Every pack has the same odds. If you open 1 or 1 billion, each pack has a 1/50 chance.
My free pack from daily log ins two days ago had a Judge in it.
Just because you've never hit the jackpot on a slot machine does not mean the next guy won't. It's 100 percent timing, nothing else.
Must be nice. This is the 3rd year in a row for me not being able to pull any of the better diamonds. I only have luck it seems after the allstar break and that isn't even anything to write home about
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@ArGenTin32_XBL said in Pack luck...again:
@lucas8181_PSN said in Pack luck...again:
I've pulled 99 Tatis twice, LS Trout twice, Ohtani three times.
Every pack has the same odds. If you open 1 or 1 billion, each pack has a 1/50 chance.
My free pack from daily log ins two days ago had a Judge in it.
Just because you've never hit the jackpot on a slot machine does not mean the next guy won't. It's 100 percent timing, nothing else.
Must be nice. This is the 3rd year in a row for me not being able to pull any of the better diamonds. I only have luck it seems after the allstar break and that isn't even anything to write home about
I feel like it hardly matters this year though. So many great cards for free.
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My standard pack luck is pretty bad and sometimes wonder if its worth grinding for. I did get the 99 rare rounds for all the around the world packs. I pulled 2 chase packs and were otani and tatis. I just spent 20k on a gold from a choice pack. I guess it all evens out.
