This game is a scam
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@eatyum_psn said in This game is a scam:
Surprised no one has said something very important when evaluating odds.
Sample size. There is no way you have opened a sufficiently enough size to determine the odds as a whole.
I play poker for a second income. I understand sample size. It still doesn’t change the fact that there’s only a 2% chance of this happening IF SDS is telling the truth with the advertised pull rate. And the fact that I see the cold streaks ALL the time. I’ve played the Show avidly for 3 seasons now and NEVER have I pulled Trout, Acuna, Tatis, or any player over 30k stubs. I’ve probably opened a total of ~2000 packs over that time and I’ve never seen any sort of hot streak with ANY of the TIER packs... I think some of y’all are confusing the point of my post. It’s not that my pack luck is so bad and blah blah blah. It’s that SDS is lying about the true odds of their packs. For instance if you read the odds for the Set Choice packs this year it says that you have a 33% chance to pull a 90+, a 33% chance to pull a 85+, and then a 100% chance to pull a gold player. But you see that’s misleading right there because that doesn’t even make sense! If you wanted people to clearly understand the odds of your packs you would say 10% chance of 90+, 20% chance of 85+, and 70% chance of gold. Instead of three outcomes that add up to a 166% chance of occurring...
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This is my favorite topic of discussion every year. People come on here pissed off after they blow a pile of stubs, accuse SDS of deceiving them with false numbers concerning pack odds. Now I'm not positive but I would assume that if they truly were giving false numbers on odds they would be putting themselves in a very bad situation that would probably lead to huge financial losses and legal issues if it were to ever be proven true. I honestly haven't really checked the odds on packs. I know on all the special packs it typically gives odds for the rare and base cards but again I pay it no attention. I imagine over the entire lifecycle of the game it works out and ends up being the number listed. What happens in between is completely random and nothing more than luck or bad luck depending on how your packs look after opening them. Nobody is required to go to Casino's it is 100% up to the consumer to choose if that is something they would like to do. Some people like myself enjoy the atmosphere and go in with a mindset that is positive hoping for some good fortune but aware more times than not the house will end up winning in the end. I dont look at it like I lost money it's the cost to enjoy the excitement when you do win. The group of players that say never buy packs it's not smart etc. etc. they understand what I understand and unlike me they don't enjoy the thrill of winning enough to justify the potential losses and spend elsewhere. I dont see a problem with that except when they try and convince anyone who believes differently that they are stupid for gambling or buying packs. Lastly there are the people who don't really get it. Who don't gamble for fun or the thrill in this case buy packs for fun. This group usually knows better but just aren't disciplined enough to stay away. This group convinces itself to gamble money or stubs they really dont have to lose in order to take a short cut and avoid the work or grind. Packs are fun if you let them be. Gambling is also fun unless you forget it's not predictable and based on luck
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@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
@eatyum_psn said in This game is a scam:
Surprised no one has said something very important when evaluating odds.
Sample size. There is no way you have opened a sufficiently enough size to determine the odds as a whole.
I play poker for a second income. I understand sample size. It still doesn’t change the fact that there’s only a 2% chance of this happening IF SDS is telling the truth with the advertised pull rate. And the fact that I see the cold streaks ALL the time. I’ve played the Show avidly for 3 seasons now and NEVER have I pulled Trout, Acuna, Tatis, or any player over 30k stubs. I’ve probably opened a total of ~2000 packs over that time and I’ve never seen any sort of hot streak with ANY of the TIER packs... I think some of y’all are confusing the point of my post. It’s not that my pack luck is so bad and blah blah blah. It’s that SDS is lying about the true odds of their packs. For instance if you read the odds for the Set Choice packs this year it says that you have a 33% chance to pull a 90+, a 33% chance to pull a 85+, and then a 100% chance to pull a gold player. But you see that’s misleading right there because that doesn’t even make sense! If you wanted people to clearly understand the odds of your packs you would say 10% chance of 90+, 20% chance of 85+, and 70% chance of gold. Instead of three outcomes that add up to a 166% chance of occurring...
Ok, since you have the proof, and you think it is enough of a sample size, go ahead and sue them, if they are lying about their odds, the federal goverment will fine them into the stone age. We are talking settlements so huge to affected players.
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@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
@kovz88_psn said in This game is a scam:
@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
@kovz88_psn said in This game is a scam:
@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
@kovz88_psn said in This game is a scam:
@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
@kovz88_psn said in This game is a scam:
Someone doesn't understand how odds work
Guarantee you I understand them better than you.
Your post proves otherwise
Ok then what are the odds that I pull 7 “base” tiers in a row for the “big dog” packs? (20% chance of success)
The odds are the same for every pack. The number you open has no effect. This post just proves that you on fact do not know more about odds than anyone. You're talking about probability, not odds
Wow dude you must be one of those “special” people. Are you trying to say that odds and probability are different?!?!
Odds is literally defined as the probability of something occurring divided by the probability of something not occurring...Yes I'm "special" says the guy that spent 62.5k for a CHANCE at getting a card he could've bought outright for about 53k. Wrap your head around that one.
Also:
The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. Probabilities always range between 0 and 1. The odds are defined as the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event will not occur.Like look how stupid you are... you’re telling me to wrap my head around something that’s literally the whole point for my post. Thanks for proving me right bro!!
Also: also what? You literally said nothing that I hadn’t already.. actually you straight up quoted me from earlier.... probability and odds are the same thing!
You shouldn't be calling other people special or high school drop outs if your takeaway from that is that probability and odds are the same thing.
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@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
I love all of you high school drop-outs that think that I don’t know anything about odds because of all the dumb reasons y’all have listed, that literally half of make no sense whatsoever. But anyways I guess I’ll go on to assert that the probability of me not pulling a diamond/top tier out of 5 set packs, 7 “big dog” packs, and 4 set choice packs is right at 2%. But this isn’t my first cold streak either... these 2% runs seem to happen quite frequently. So either A) Ive just experienced an INCREDIBLY unlucky streak or B) the odds listed on their packs are nowhere near accurate.
So the guy who wasted over 60k in stubs to buy packs for a chance to earn a card going for about 50k is smart, and the rest of us are high school drop outs? Makes sense.
Half of what was said may make no sense to you, but it does to the rest of us because we understand how it works.
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This thread makes my head hurt.
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Oh [censored]….plays poker as a second income. Makes sense the entitled and horrible attitude. It’s Phil Helmuth.
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Packs are lose/lose. Haven't bought 1 in over 2 years save a flash sale headliner here and there
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Playing poker as a second income doesn't help with reading comprehension.
Open one pack or 1000 packs. You odds are the same each time you click on the open pack button.
Probability is higher for you to hit once if you buy 1000 packs.
In terms of the PCT "odds", they are accurate and you are unlucky. Anybody with common sense can figure out it's not 133% chance of pulling something when you list 3-4 tiers of odds.
Glad I missed this one last night. Probably would have had the OP take one sentence of what I wrote above out of context, and zoned in on it as Disinformation.
There's a professional poker player here in these boards. I won't tag him, as many folks like myself enjoy some internet privacy for our out of game lives.
Don't overthink this. OP had bad luck. Sometimes you have good luck.
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@hoboadam_psn said in This game is a scam:
Playing poker as a second income doesn't help with reading comprehension.
Open one pack or 1000 packs. You odds are the same each time you click on the open pack button.
Probability is higher for you to hit once if you buy 1000 packs.
In terms of the PCT "odds", they are accurate and you are unlucky. Anybody with common sense can figure out it's not 133% chance of pulling something when you list 3-4 tiers of odds.
Glad I missed this one last night. Probably would have had the OP take one sentence of what I wrote above out of context, and zoned in on it as Disinformation.
There's a professional poker player here in these boards. I won't tag him, as many folks like myself enjoy some internet privacy for our out of game lives.
Don't overthink this. OP had bad luck. Sometimes you have good luck.
Yup, exactly what was going to say, right down to the fact that it's just plan bad luck. This year I have had good luck with packs. Not enough for me yo buy them, but way better than I have in years past. So when it comes to packs this year I feel grateful, not as much as I will when I land a Trout.
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@hoboadam_psn said in This game is a scam:
Playing poker as a second income doesn't help with reading comprehension.
Open one pack or 1000 packs. You odds are the same each time you click on the open pack button.
Probability is higher for you to hit once if you buy 1000 packs.
In terms of the PCT "odds", they are accurate and you are unlucky. Anybody with common sense can figure out it's not 133% chance of pulling something when you list 3-4 tiers of odds.
Glad I missed this one last night. Probably would have had the OP take one sentence of what I wrote above out of context, and zoned in on it as Disinformation.
There's a professional poker player here in these boards. I won't tag him, as many folks like myself enjoy some internet privacy for our out of game lives.
Don't overthink this. OP had bad luck. Sometimes you have good luck.
Even worse... knowing odds doesn't help with poker either. Hate to quote a fictional TV character but you play the man, not the cards.
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The lottery is an additional tax on the stupid.
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I mean, the guy thinks the Odd's of each possible outcome are supposed to be added together. And not for each individual occurrence...Mustn't be very good at poker or that'd be his sole source of income.
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The pack odds are based on every single pack opened by any person that plays this game. It doesn't matter how many packs you open, because the stated pack odds are applied to every pack opened by anyone. You can do all the statistical calculations you want but the probably of you not getting a diamond in 2000 packs is irrelevant because for every 2000 you open, there are millions more opened by other players
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@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
Just spent 62.5k on Ketel Marte packs. 5 of the lower and the 25 k “special” pack. SDS is a bunch of liars! The pack odds are NOWHERE close to what they advertise!!! Bunch of scammers. Hope this company dies like EA and the rest. Pulled 3k worth of players out of 62.5k worth of packs?!?! Why even sell these?! Just say “GIVE YOUR HARD EARNED STUBS AWAY HERE!” Screw game companies that do this [censored]. Opened 7 “big dog” packs just to get nothing but “little puppies.” The new “choice” set packs are the biggest scam of all. Supposedly a 33% chance to get a diamond but yet I haven’t seen over an 83 ovr in 4 of them.... like why can’t they just put the ACTUAL odds up so I don’t get my hopes up. SDS used to be such a great company....
Your fault for buying them. As long as there are suckers like you, companies like EA and SDS will continue to push these microtransactions.
Also pack odds are per pack, so 1 outta 50 per pack. Those odds reset each time ya open a pack. 1 outta 50, or whatever they claim the odds to be.
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The only packs worth opening are ones you get for free.
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@so-icy42_xbl said in This game is a scam:
I love all of you high school drop-outs that think that I don’t know anything about odds because of all the dumb reasons y’all have listed, that literally half of make no sense whatsoever. But anyways I guess I’ll go on to assert that the probability of me not pulling a diamond/top tier out of 5 set packs, 7 “big dog” packs, and 4 set choice packs is right at 2%. But this isn’t my first cold streak either... these 2% runs seem to happen quite frequently. So either A) Ive just experienced an INCREDIBLY unlucky streak or B) the odds listed on their packs are nowhere near accurate.
The answer is A. I'm that other guy who's pulled Trout out of a regular pack, Tatis twice, Acuna three times, Vlad twice, etc., etc. There are people like you and me all over this game, and many more somewhere in the middle.
In terms of perception, though, people with luck like mine don't come on here and rant about how the odds are [censored] because we're pulling monsters at an unsustainable rate that defies the odds. Think about that.
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I like turtles
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Karen you are special
