My packs tracker.
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This is a pretty interesting thread. Not sure what to make of it yet but thanks for putting this all together.
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Thursday May 27th
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds - (Yates and Bellinger)Packs : 50
Diamonds :2
Ratio: 1:25
Cost 75k
Value : 179,130
Profit: +104k
Roi +138% -
Friday May 28th
1 - 50 bundle - no diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(wainwright)
1 - 50 bundle - no diamond
1- 50 bundle - no diamond
1 - 50 bundle - no diamond
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(judge and story)
1 - 50 bundle - no diamondBiah now at 0-47
Will update ROI later. Been slacking. I’m sure today gonna wash out 2 days of the biggest diamonds in the Snap of a finger.
Packs : 350
Diamonds : 3
Ratio : 1:117
Cost : 525k
Value : 307k
Profit : -218k
Roi: -42%Part 2 for the day
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(soto)
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds(Devin Williams, Scherzer and Hendricks)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(soto)
1- 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Verlander)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Jose Ramirez)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
7 loose packs - 0 diamonds
Biah 0-53 - at this point this pack is a parody of probabilities.Packs 327
Diamonds 7
Ratio : 1:47
Cost 490,500
Value 347k
Profit -143k
Roi : -29% -
@moellers_xbl said in My packs tracker.:
This is a pretty interesting thread. Not sure what to make of it yet but thanks for putting this all together.
Yea it’s really just tracking. Biggest surprises to me is that they are actually hanging around the 1:50 mark, you basically better pull trout fast and stop or you’ll probably lose(the losses are way more devastating than the profits), they definitely nerf and juice packs and biah pack odds are a straight lie. I am going to be interested after pulling trout and several big diamonds in a short span surrounded by 2 big loss runs. But it’s just something to do. Also I’m just estimating the price of the fodder so not an exact science.
Oh and it’s a lot of work selling all this stuff hahaha.
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Thank you very much for this thread. It is very informative when trying to understand the reality of your odds before making a decision. I also think that there is an off switch on diamonds in the BIAH packs.
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Saturday May 29th
59 TA packs - 0 diamonds(won’t be counted towards value but will for ratio. Same odds)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Chapman)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds(Devin Williams and 2 machado-in back to back packs lol$
1 - 20 bundle - 0’diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds - only 1 gold in this one
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 20 bundle - 1 diamond(bregman)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond (realmuto)Biah tracker 1- 63 pack 58 pulled a diamond(darvish)
Packs 549
Diamonds 6
Ratio : 1:92
Cost: 735k
Value : 420k
Profit : - 315k
Roi: -43% -
10 TA packs - 1 diamond(Posey)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 50 bundle - 0 diamond
1 - 20 bundle - 2 diamonds(Chapman and Olsen)
1 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(realmuto and buxton)
1 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Devin Williams)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
4 biah - 0 diamonds.Biah now 1 out of 71
I will update OP tomorrow. I might be tapped out lol. They may have finally got me to where I can’t open a lot of packs after this 3 day run and trading in a bunch of commons on TA program. We will see.
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BIAH probabilities
P(x = 0) + P(x =1)
(0.9)^71 +71(0.9^70)(0.1)
0.000564 + 0.00445 = 0.0050
It is very unlikely that would only get 1 diamond in 71 BIAH packs.
You’ve got a decent argument to make on BIAH not being 10%.
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Z = (0.0189 - 0.2) / Sqrt(.02* .98/3182)
=-.0011 /. 0.002482
= -0.46
This gives about a 33% chance of getting 60 or fewer diamonds in 6182 regular packs at 2% probability.
So, this would fall into a very common outcome. No reason to believe 2% is off.
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Monday May 31
18 TA packs - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Chapman)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
4 lose packs - 0 diamonds
7 loose packs - 0 diamonds
15 TA packs - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Mookie betts)
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds (Jose Ramirez and 2 burnes)lol at pulling 3 diamonds and losing
6 loose packs - 0 diamonds
10 TA - 0 diamondsBiah - 3 out of 96
Pulled another diamond out of biah but had big drop from TA -
@mathman5072_psn said in My packs tracker.:
Z = (0.0189 - 0.2) / Sqrt(.02* .98/3182)
=-.0011 /. 0.002482
= -0.46
This gives about a 33% chance of getting 60 or fewer diamonds in 6182 regular packs at 2% probability.
So, this would fall into a very common outcome. No reason to believe 2% is off.
Yea I said I was kind of surprised they were within the realm of the 2%. I would be interested to see how long that sustained. But losing stubs at the clip I am it’s not going to be possible much longer.
And the biah, man I wish I could go back all year and get the numbers. Those are so far off it’s crazy. I did pull another so 2 out of 80. So that will close it to a more reasonable. Doesn’t make any sense either because the pack values are so low they could be at 1:15 and if they’re low diamonds the packs are still loss after loss. So doesn’t make sense why they aren’t producing at that rate.
Obviously the number 1 thing to take from this is at this point of the year moving forward packs will just be a stubs sink hole and nobody should touch them. But if nobody touches them prices will skyrocket then they would be worth pulling. It’s a paradox lol.
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2 out of 79 brings your probability up to .0116 or 1.2%. So, you’re getting into the realm of unlikely, but possible.
Keep posting data. This is fun.
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Tuesday June 1st
Just some free ones.
17 loose packs - 0 diamonds
35 TA packs - 0 diamonds
3 headliner packs - 1 diamonds
24 BiAh packs - 1 diamond1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(mookie betts)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Bieber and Judge)Biah counter 4 out of 125
Will update OP with odds from last couple days shortly. Not going to track value anymore as it’s obviously a scam or whatever you want to call a guaranteed no matter what where y’all come from. We can cal it “gambling” if you want.
Just going to track ratios.
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Wednesday June 2nd
1 - 10 bundle - 0 diamonds
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 damonds(muncy, buxton)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 10 bundle - 0 diamonds
2 loose packs - 0 diamondsBiah tracker 4 out of 127
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Interesting to see how it is getting further and further from the stated probabilities. As I said in another post if that pattern continues then logic would tell us having more data would just continue to move it away from that number. It’s pretty interesting seeing how bad the packs value are and how many of the diamonds are little 5k diamonds that the system doesn’t keep up with odds. After losing a couple of million it’s going to be hard to keep it up but I will try. To be honest after doing this For a while and seeing this stuff it’s reached the point again were its hard to even stomach logging on the game and supporting these guys. But we will see where it goes.
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@untchable704_psn said in My packs tracker.:
Tuesday June 1st
Just some free ones.
17 loose packs - 0 diamonds
35 TA packs - 0 diamonds
3 headliner packs - 1 diamonds
24 BiAh packs - 1 diamond1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(mookie betts)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Bieber and Judge)Biah counter 4 out of 125
Will update OP with odds from last couple days shortly. Not going to track value anymore as it’s obviously a scam or whatever you want to call a guaranteed no matter what where y’all come from. We can cal it “gambling” if you want.
Just going to track ratios.
Absolute garbage --- these 0 for on multiple 50 bundle's is crippling, but yet here I am, still grinding for 75k to buy another one like the degenerate pack addict I am. Smh, definitely hard to support these guys
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The odds on getting a diamond in BiaH packs are 1:15. I just opened 38 and didn't get 1.
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experienced this last night saving up all my team affinity BiaH packs, so demoralizing
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I just realized my calculations earlier were based on BIAH having a 1/10 chance of diamond. That does change these probabilities quite a bit.
At 127 packs you have a 7% chance of pulling 4 or fewer diamonds. Statistically speaking that is not significant evidence against the claim of 1/15.
Doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating though. Also, with the early data of bad luck, it is going to take a decent amount of good luck to catch up if we assume the odds are to be believed.
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@argentin32_xbl said in My packs tracker.:
The odds on getting a diamond in BiaH packs are 1:15. I just opened 38 and didn't get 1.
This, coincidentally, also has a 7% chance of happening randomly.
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