More Free Packs=Lower Odds

With all the free packs being handed out in every program, TA, and event.....The odds written on the packs still say the same but it would make sense to keep the market viable the odds have been skewed....

I was bored at work and thanks to the show nation website showing every pack you have opened this year in game and online I did the numbers some packs: I did not include the show packs, twitch packs or TA packs

SilverLiners Packs: 89, Silver Players: 69, Gold Players: 26, Diamond: 9 (Yates-89 x 2, Morton-85, Flaherty-85, Acuna-89 x 2, Judge-88, Harper-85, Baez-86) There was a month gap between Diamond pulls

Golden Habit Packs: 23, Gold Players: 25, Diamond: 1 (Strasburg-87 on March 17th)

2 Flash Sale Packs: Baez-86 and Altuve-85

Prospect Packs: 7- Low Tier x6, Mid Tier x1

I hope my pack luck turns around when I get to the Team Affinity Packs and Golden Habit packs for each team

How has everyone else been doing with the "special" packs

Silver Player Packs only offer 1 card, but you've got 104 pulled out of 89 Packs?

After playing the USA conquest map for the 8th time (at least) I finally got a diamond pull (from these specific free packs) but it was Trout. I had to double check my inventory in the middle of the night to make sure it wasn't a dream haha

I just did a pack opening with 36 standard packs, 45 TA packs, 6 ballin is a habit packs, 5 silver player packs, and 1 set 12 headliner pack. Pulled 1 diamond catcher mask and Aaron Judge. I got Judge in the healiner pack. Hand full of gold players. Lol thankfully these were free I just saved them up. Definitely not wasting stubs on packs.

I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.

I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.

I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.

I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.

I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.

Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.

@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.

I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.

I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.

Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.

I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.

I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.

I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.

I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.

Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.

I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.

I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck

Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol

@GixxerRyder750 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

Silver Player Packs only offer 1 card, but you've got 104 pulled out of 89 Packs?

not silver player packs (Headliners) which have been renamed SilverLiners

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.

I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.

I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.

I am stocking up the Team Affinity Packs for a massive opening (I currently have 12 haha)

FYI...at a 2% probability, you have a 1% chance of opening 228 packs and not getting a diamond.

I'm curious how many pages of packs did you have to go through? I'm not sure I'm willing to go through 149 pages.. lol @davisonkj17

@MathMan5072 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

FYI...at a 2% probability, you have a 1% chance of opening 228 packs and not getting a diamond.

My maths work as such, 60% of the time it fails every time.

@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@MathMan5072 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

FYI...at a 2% probability, you have a 1% chance of opening 228 packs and not getting a diamond.

My maths work as such, 60% of the time it fails every time.

That’s right

@MathMan5072 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@MathMan5072 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

FYI...at a 2% probability, you have a 1% chance of opening 228 packs and not getting a diamond.

My maths work as such, 60% of the time it fails every time.

That’s right

First right answer I have had in math in awhile. I kept getting sad face grades for math in school.

@davisonkj17 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@GixxerRyder750 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

Silver Player Packs only offer 1 card, but you've got 104 pulled out of 89 Packs?

not silver player packs (Headliners) which have been renamed SilverLiners

Ahh. Gotcha

@MrGamebred said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

I'm curious how many pages of packs did you have to go through? I'm not sure I'm willing to go through 149 pages.. lol @davisonkj17

I had about 60-70 pages

Where is this info on TSN

I pulled Bellinger this weekend from a free daily double pack

@MaxHarvest said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

Where is this info on TSN

Click on your dashboard, Click Inventory, then Click Open Pack History

I had 6 BIAH packs,(A 5 bundle from Prestiege 15) 1 from BOS TA. I also had 6 TA packs. BIAH 2 diamonds Judge, Rendon, 6 TA packs 2 gold, Rizzo, Madbum, and 1 Diamond Chapman

Is this another thread where people don't understand how odds work?

@maskedgrappler said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

Is this another thread where people don't understand how odds work?

Everyone assumes it's packs "they open".

@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:

I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.

I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.

I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.

Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.

I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.

I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck

Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol

So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:

43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packs

Results:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 Kershaw

Safe to say my pack luck hasn't improved

I have 292 pages of pack openings