WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL
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Why do people only compare player from different ERA using WAR and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player. I will never understand it.
Truly Understanding what WAR is meant to be use for
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
Here is an article
Here is part of that article
Stop the WAR?
Given how frequently it pops up in sabermetric discussions, WAR might sound like the pinnacle of sabermetrics. But no stat is perfect, and WAR is far from it.
The "godfather of Sabermetrics" Bill James wrote about his principal gripe with WAR, discussing the MVP race between Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge:
“Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve. Why? Because he didn’t do nearly as much to win games for his team as Altuve did. It is NOT close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis — not as bad as the 1974 statistical analysis, I grant, but flawed nonetheless. It is based essentially on a misleading statistic, which is WAR. Baseball-Reference WAR shows the little guy at 8.3, and the big guy at 8.1.”
James’ argument represents the principal criticism of WAR — WAR is context neutral. If a player recorded only one single per game for 162 games, but that one single knocked in the game-winning run every game,WAR would credit that player with exactly as much value as a player who did the same thing but his team lost every game.
As a result, it would seem as though WAR is undervaluing the first player, and overvaluing the second player. Judge consistently performed poorly in high-leverage situations: he recorded the worst Clutch score of any player in 2017 per FanGraphs, despite leading the MLB in fWAR.
But in the words of Bertrand Russell, “WAR does not determine who is right…” so don’t think that WAR is the be all end all to every statistical discussion.
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Get ya popcorn ready, here we go again. Cue Drive by Trucker. Lol
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Why do people only compare player from different ERA using WAR and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player. I will never understand it.
How many pitchers gave up 240ft homers at Polo Grounds and how many players benefited from it? Back in day the scouting reports were slim to none, workouts were probably different, fields were much bigger so they probably got more cheap hits/inside the park homers, etc...
Hitters saw the same pitcher almost every time and the dude would probably only hit 90.
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@nflman2033 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Get ya popcorn ready, here we go again. Cue Drive by Trucker. Lol
I know, I understand what WAR is and how it is use but the problem is that is the only thing they base it off of.
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@Matt_42187 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Why do people only compare player from different ERA using WAR and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player. I will never understand it.
How many pitchers gave up 240ft homers at Polo Grounds and how many players benefited from it? Back in day the scouting reports were slim to none, workouts were probably different, fields were much bigger so they probably got more cheap hits/inside the park homers, etc...
Hitters saw the same pitcher almost every time and the dude would probably only hit 90.
yep, the formula is flawed because it does not include a lot of stats or what Scouts look at pre WAR. Each ERA was different in how they looked at players.
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@nflman2033 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Get ya popcorn ready, here we go again. Cue Drive by Trucker. Lol
Lol
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player
Except that WAR DOES adjust based upon era. So your argument is invalid.
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@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player
Except that WAR DOES adjust based upon era. So your argument is invalid.
Learn what WAR really is WIN above Replacement for his time not to compare players of different ERA's
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/ -
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
● WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.
Would you like to provide any-other self-disproving links?
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@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
and not considering all stats or how good a player really was in his time based on how the game was in the era of that player
Except that WAR DOES adjust based upon era. So your argument is invalid.
Does not inclued how they value of how many times a player K's, does not include the value of RBI's or avg with runners in scoring pos. does not include SB which is a stat. Does include BB which is part of OBP. For guys who were not paid to Walk in the 80'S and earlier times. The game was looked at different in the 80's and earlier by scouts it was not about sabermatrics. Does not include BA. It is not for comparing players of different Era's, it is based on win over replacment for a team without or with that player in the lineup it is an estimate.
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@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
● WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.
Would you like to provide any-other self-disproving links?
I understand how WAR works buddy, But my problem is only using WAR to say a player is better than another player is flawed.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Does not inclued how they value of how many times a player K's
It actually does. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_wraa.shtml) Advanced WOBA? Note 5
, does not include the value of RBI's or avg with runners in scoring pos.
Because that stat isn't independent of player performance. It requires teammates be in certain situations. Hence, why it's not included in an individual metric.
does not include SB which is a stat.
It does. See previous link, Advanced wOBA? Note 3
Does include BB which is part of OBP.
Which it should.
Does not include BA.
Because it's not that great a stat for comparing. Similar to using Wins for Pitchers, or Passing yards for a QB that doesn't account for garbage time stats.
It is not for comparing players of different Era's, it is based on win over replacment for a team without or with that player in the lineup it is an estimate.
Your own link said it did. You should read it sometime.
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@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Does not inclued how they value of how many times a player K's
It actually does. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_wraa.shtml) Advanced WOBA? Note 5
, does not include the value of RBI's or avg with runners in scoring pos.
Because that stat isn't independent of player performance. It requires teammates be in certain situations. Hence, why it's not included in an individual metric.
does not include SB which is a stat.
It does. See previous link, Advanced wOBA? Note 3
Does include BB which is part of OBP.
Which it should.
Does not include BA.
Because it's not that great a stat for comparing. Similar to using Wins for Pitchers, or Passing yards for a QB that doesn't account for garbage time stats.
It is not for comparing players of different Era's, it is based on win over replacment for a team without or with that player in the lineup it is an estimate.
Your own link said it did. You should read it sometime.
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
I understand how WAR works buddy, But my problem is only using WAR to say a player is better than another player is flawed.
Apparently you don't. Your very own link disproves everything you've said so far.
If you've got a better all-encompassing stat, by all means share. But until then, WAR is the best we've got.
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@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
I understand how WAR works buddy, But my problem is only using WAR to say a player is better than another player is flawed.
Apparently you don't. Your very own link disproves everything you've said so far.
If you've got a better all-encompassing stat, by all means share. But until then, WAR is the best we've got.
It is not the only thing we got
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I guess since WAR says Morgan is better than Griffey jr he must be right by pos
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Acccording to WAR Mickey Mantle is the 16th best player ever, Mel OTT is better than Mantle cause WAR says so. this is laughable
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Acccording to WAR Mickey Mantle is the 16th best player ever, Mel OTT is better than Mantle cause WAR says so. this is laughable
according by pos overall Mantle is 12th. -
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
