WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL
-
@ImDFC said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
I guess since WAR says Morgan is better than Griffey jr he must be right
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Does not inclued how they value of how many times a player K's
It actually does. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_wraa.shtml) Advanced WOBA? Note 5
, does not include the value of RBI's or avg with runners in scoring pos.
Because that stat isn't independent of player performance. It requires teammates be in certain situations. Hence, why it's not included in an individual metric.
does not include SB which is a stat.
It does. See previous link, Advanced wOBA? Note 3
Does include BB which is part of OBP.
Which it should.
Does not include BA.
Because it's not that great a stat for comparing. Similar to using Wins for Pitchers, or Passing yards for a QB that doesn't account for garbage time stats.
It is not for comparing players of different Era's, it is based on win over replacment for a team without or with that player in the lineup it is an estimate.
Your own link said it did. You should read it sometime.
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
I think you forgot about Ken Griffey Jr's career post 2000. His production, both offensive and defensive fell off pretty hard, and he was plagued by injuries.
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Acccording to WAR Mickey Mantle is the 16th best player ever, Mel OTT is better than Mantle cause WAR says so. this is laughable
Mel Ott is easily the most underrated 500HR hitter of all time. He played in a National League that used a heavier ball than the American League, which had a huge impact on his potential offensive output. And besides, Mantle has a WAR7/JAWS (Measurements of Peak performance) of 64.7/87.4, while Ott had 54.1/82.4. This tells us that While Ott had superior longevity, Mantle's Peak was certainly higher.
My problem is people only using WAR to determine who the better player is and WAR leaves out a lot of stuff. I am not saying it should not be used but to compare to players solely on WAR is flawed.
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
I understand how WAR works buddy, But my problem is only using WAR to say a player is better than another player is flawed.
Apparently you don't. Your very own link disproves everything you've said so far.
If you've got a better all-encompassing stat, by all means share. But until then, WAR is the best we've got.
I do not agree with this list base off what you think is the best of all time because of WAR here is the is
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_off_career.shtml
Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) and Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) are two different metrics that value different things. bWAR tends to be friendlier to pitchers than fWAR
-
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Top 10 WAR consists of:
Ruth
W Johnson
Young
Bonds
Mays
Cobb
Aaron
Clemens
Speaker
WagnerThat's a pretty solid "Best 10 players ever" list if I've ever seen one.
100% accurate.
There's no point arguing with stubborn ignorance.. some people just can't wrap to their heads around this kind of stuff -
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Top 10 WAR consists of:
Ruth
W Johnson
Young
Bonds
Mays
Cobb
Aaron
Clemens
Speaker
WagnerThat's a pretty solid "Best 10 players ever" list if I've ever seen one.
You agree with that list and there is no way that anyone else could make an arguement for another player, -
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Top 10 WAR consists of:
Ruth
W Johnson
Young
Bonds
Mays
Cobb
Aaron
Clemens
Speaker
WagnerThat's a pretty solid "Best 10 players ever" list if I've ever seen one.
100% accurate.
There's no point arguing with stubborn ignorance.. some people just can't wrap to their heads around this kind of stuff
Ignorance is thinking that WAR is the only thing that matters to how good a player is -
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Top 10 WAR consists of:
Ruth
W Johnson
Young
Bonds
Mays
Cobb
Aaron
Clemens
Speaker
WagnerThat's a pretty solid "Best 10 players ever" list if I've ever seen one.
100% accurate.
There's no point arguing with stubborn ignorance.. some people just can't wrap to their heads around this kind of stuff
Ignorance is thinking that WAR is the only thing that matters to how good a player isNobody is saying that. But to discount it completely is much worse. Or refuse to read and learn new things, formulas, advancements, etc.
-
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Top 10 WAR consists of:
Ruth
W Johnson
Young
Bonds
Mays
Cobb
Aaron
Clemens
Speaker
WagnerThat's a pretty solid "Best 10 players ever" list if I've ever seen one.
100% accurate.
There's no point arguing with stubborn ignorance.. some people just can't wrap to their heads around this kind of stuff
Ignorance is thinking that WAR is the only thing that matters to how good a player isNobody is saying that. But to discount it completely is much worse. Or read and learn new things, formulas, advancements, etc.
I never discounted WAR try agian, my complaint is people only and sticking to that WAR is the say all be all in a debate. I said over and over again it is overrated because that is the only thing people use to say a player is better than another player. I understand how formula's work.
-
Yes there are stats that are better at determining specific value in certain areas. .ISO will tell you who is the better slugger between two players, DRS/UZR will help show who the more valuable defender is, and so on. But there's no better all-encompassing value stat better than your WAR of choice, whether bWAR or fWAR
-
-
Exactly.
If I were to compare offense, I would go wRC+, OPS+, ISO.
Defense as @ImDFC says, DRS/UZR
But to get a full picture off the cuff, fWAR or bWAR...
I don't swear by it, but there is no better all encompassing stat out there. If you want to discount it completely, then you are being ignorant, simple as that. -
@ImDFC said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Yes there are stats that are better at determining specific value in certain areas. .ISO will tell you who is the better slugger between two players, DRS/UZR will help show who the more valuable defender is, and so on. But there's no better all-encompassing value stat better than your WAR of choice, whether bWAR or fWAR
Understanding of scouts and management valued players and what they looked for in players in different ERA's is different especially in today's games. Knowing the formula some of those stats that were valued pre WAR formula are not valued using WAR. When comparing players from different ERA's the value of how a player was looked at takes his value down when using WAR. Most the greatest players of All time we all know who they are and they separate themselves on stats alone. But when you get to the avg and above avg players from different era's you can not just go off of WAR imo because of what management and scouts valued in a player which did not use sabermatrics which is highly used in today's game since early 2000's mostly by the A's. Does this make since. I like like at all the stats and the career of a player to how good a player really was. Understanding why player A from x era has a lower WAR than player in z era. When you look at a players career stats and do a little research on the two players you want to compare you can come to a better understanding of which player is actually better. Not justifying it only using WAR.
-
@ImDFC said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
I also notice that you take starpower into consideration quite a bit. Griffey and Mantle were cultural figures, and had a special aura about them, while Joe Morgan and Mel Ott lacked this.
Joe Morgan would disagree that Joe Morgan did not have star power and Joe Morgan's aura was the most special ever, according to Joe Morgan.
-
@abbyspapa said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@ImDFC said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
I also notice that you take starpower into consideration quite a bit. Griffey and Mantle were cultural figures, and had a special aura about them, while Joe Morgan and Mel Ott lacked this.
Joe Morgan would disagree that Joe Morgan did not have star power.
Joe Morgan had star power and he was a great player, But I did not grow up watching Morgan, Griffey was also slowed by injuries. They are both great players.
-
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Exactly.
If I were to compare offense, I would go wRC+, OPS+, ISO.
Defense as @ImDFC says, DRS/UZR
But to get a full picture off the cuff, fWAR or bWAR...
I don't swear by it, but there is no better all encompassing stat out there. If you want to discount it completely, then you are being ignorant, simple as that.No I do not discount it completely, To me it all matters but no one thing should say player A is better than player B. I discount the people who swear by it and only it.
-
Reality we really do not know who is better unless they actually played in the same ERA against the same players but that we will never know so we are left with a bunch of formulas to say player A is better than player B. The player we have actually seen play we have our opinion who is better. I have no problems comparing players of the same ERA's that is a lot easier to do. Take Griffey and Bonds came in the league almost at the same time. Bonds is batter but I think Griffey was better than Bonds in there prime. Take Clemens and Randy Johnson, Clemens was better. I do not need to look at WAR to tell me those things. Pujols and Cabrera there a good one.
-
@abbyspapa said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Joe Morgan would disagree that Joe Morgan did not have star power and Joe Morgan's aura was the most special ever, according to Joe Morgan.
This message paid for by Fremulon Industries.
-
Thanks for the responses, and I respect all of your opinions and factual input you provided
-
Sorry, had to post this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZI2aLQ9Sw -
-
Bottom line is that WAR is imperfect and flawed (OP’s point), but is currently the best available stand alone stat we have to compare players across different eras (other commenters points).
In 2019, Justin Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300k. His pitching was worth 7.4bWAR. In 2019, Mike Minor was 14-10 with a 3.59 ERA and 200k. His pitching was worth 7.8bWAR.
In 2019, Gerrit Cole was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 326k. His pitching was worth 6.6bWAR. In 2019, Lance Lynn was 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA and 246k. His pitching was worth 7.5bWAR.
In this case, WAR is misleading. Despite having lower bWAR totals, Verlander and Cole had better seasons. Accordingly, Verlander and Cole finished 1st and 2nd in Cy Young voting while Lynn and Minor finished 5th and 8th.
bWAR includes park adjustments, so playing in Globe Life increased the bWAR totals of Lynn and Minor and without a deeper dive could lead someone that lives and dies by WAR to believe that Lynn and Minor were better than Verlander and Cole last season. Which to OP’s point, would be a ridiculous conclusion.
Having said that, more often than not, WAR (bWAR or fWAR) is going to be the best all-incompassing stand alone indicator of performance. The best players will consistently post the highest WAR totals.
In baseball, almost everything is recorded, quantified, and analyzed. With all the information that’s available, why would anyone choose just one stat to look at when comparing players? Even if that stat is comprised/calculated using other stats, it’s impossible to paint the entire picture and honestly, that person is just missing out on the incredible and fascinating information that’s out there.
I apologize to anyone who stuck with me and read all this. Believe it or not, I tried to keep it short. There’s just so much information out there that people are missing out on, and because of it, there’s seasons and careers that get tragically overlooked.
