WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL
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WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Who is better George Brett or Wade Boggs
WAR says Brett 84.6
Boggs 81.4
Can you make a case that Boggs is better or do we only look at WAR.
You're making strawman arguments when it comes to WAR. I don't know anyone who seriously argues WAR in this way. Those two examples are basically the same WAR total. There's a negligible difference between the two players.
My argument and points is WAR is not the only thing you measure or compare players to debate who is better.
You're making another strawman argument.
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@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
Everything you just said was incorrect.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
Completely incorrect
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@GrandpaShaft said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Who is better George Brett or Wade Boggs
WAR says Brett 84.6
Boggs 81.4
Can you make a case that Boggs is better or do we only look at WAR.
You're making strawman arguments when it comes to WAR. I don't know anyone who seriously argues WAR in this way. Those two examples are basically the same WAR total. There's a negligible difference between the two players.
My argument and points is WAR is not the only thing you measure or compare players to debate who is better.
Ok and nobody is saying its the only thing you use. You are just arguing just to argue.
No i am not arguing to just argue. There are people on this forum that only go off WAR. The player with the Higher WAR is the better player cause WAR says it is.
Nobody on the forum only went by WAR. You just ran with it when WAR was brought up.
Most people who know what WAR is, generally know how we get to that number from other advanced analytics (wRC+, OPS+, UZR, dRS, ERA+, FIP, etc.).
The title of this thread proves you were looking for an argument this whole timeYou do not pay to close attention on this forum or this site. I have had the debate with plenty of people over the last 3 years and yes they think WAR is the the only thing and that is it.
I don't pay close attention to you....
And all you come off as, is someone who's countering those people with total ignorance in the other direction..No one can say using any formula 100 percent that player A is was better than player B in different ERA's. You all will say well WAR is the only thing we got, The two players did not face the same competition play in the same parks. I know i know WAR takes that in consideration but no you would never know how players from different ERA's would have perform in that stadium it is an assumption how they would have performed. I discredit that. Players and Mangement was not concerned about Sabermetrics and again the way players were looked are were different. The roles of players on how the game was played was different and that has no consideration when it comes to WAR. Do the best players that ever played have the highest WAR they do. You can not say Babe Ruth if he played in today's game that he would have the same, better or worst war. All you have is in the time in which he played. I personally do not like comparing players that played in different ERA's you can not really say who the better player is who you are talking about the best of all time.
You miss the whole point of WAR, still...
It's not to say how Babe Ruth would play in today's game. It's to compare how good or valuable Babe Ruth was against his peers vs. how player B was vs. his.
That's all that matters really. How good were you in your time. If you were 100 wins above a replacement player in your time compared to another player that was 80 wins above a replacement player of his time, you were clearly more valuable of a player.
At that point you can break it down as to why that was. OPS, wRC+, etc.If you understand that, then you'd see how you arguing this is kind of stupid...
In your time yeah I get that, Comparing two players of different times is really not fair considering they did not play against the same competition, or with the same rules or the same stadiums or more or less teams depending on who you are comparing. Yeah we only have stats to compare plays with. I do understand. Even if you break it down with OPS, wrc etc.. does not actually say a player was better than another player in a different ERA. I understand that is all we have to compare the players. Really we can say Ruth was the best in his time, Aaron was the best in his time, Bonds was the best in his time, Trout is the best in his time so on and so forth, take those four and compare them really is not right in my opinion. I would just say they are the best that ever played along with some others. It is usually no the best of the best on this site that I debate about it is more the above avg, avg and below avg players. When I debate with people IMO they do not seem to take into consideration how the league was at that time. How teams valued players and what they expected of the players, looking at that is where WAR is the issue and IMO is flawed.
The sabermetrics like WAR are attempting to take into effect differences in eras (competition, balls, stadiums, rules, etc) when comparing different players. There's a reason 5 of the top 10 in bWAR played parts or the majority of their careers in the dead ball era.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
He would not have the same stats, To my point his WAR would be different, Not saying he would be a worst player but his WAR could be lower or higher was the question.
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@GrandpaShaft said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
Everything you just said was incorrect.
Ok
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Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better? -
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
He would not have the same stats, To my point his WAR would be different, Not saying he would be a worst player but his WAR could be lower or higher was the question.
Huh?! Why would he not have the same stats? You didn't establish that in your scenario.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
He would not have the same stats, To my point his WAR would be different, Not saying he would be a worst player but his WAR could be lower or higher was the question.
Huh?! Why would he not have the same stats? You didn't establish that in your scenario.
Even if he had the same stats his value would not be the same when it comes to win over replacement?
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
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Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
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Here is an article
Here is part of that article
Stop the WAR?
Given how frequently it pops up in sabermetric discussions, WAR might sound like the pinnacle of sabermetrics. But no stat is perfect, and WAR is far from it.
The "godfather of Sabermetrics" Bill James wrote about his principal gripe with WAR, discussing the MVP race between Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge:
“Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve. Why? Because he didn’t do nearly as much to win games for his team as Altuve did. It is NOT close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis — not as bad as the 1974 statistical analysis, I grant, but flawed nonetheless. It is based essentially on a misleading statistic, which is WAR. Baseball-Reference WAR shows the little guy at 8.3, and the big guy at 8.1.”James’ argument represents the principal criticism of WAR — WAR is context neutral. If a player recorded only one single per game for 162 games, but that one single knocked in the game-winning run every game,WAR would credit that player with exactly as much value as a player who did the same thing but his team lost every game.
As a result, it would seem as though WAR is undervaluing the first player, and overvaluing the second player. Judge consistently performed poorly in high-leverage situations: he recorded the worst Clutch score of any player in 2017 per FanGraphs, despite leading the MLB in fWAR.
But in the words of Bertrand Russell, “WAR does not determine who is right…” so don’t think that WAR is the be all end all to every statistical discussion.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
