99 Posey Incoming
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I do not think some of you know the criteria the voters use to Vote it is more than just WAR or FWAR or any other WAR.
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
You’re acting like longevity is the most important thing, which is just isn’t. It’s brought up more than it really should be, but in the end stats and metrics are what truly matter the most, and they favor Posey very highly. Posey being a top 10 defensive catcher and top 10 in wRC+ among catchers is what will really set him apart, aside from putting up 57.6 fWAR in such a short career.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
You’re acting like longevity is the most important thing, which is just isn’t. It’s brought up more than it really should be, but in the end stats and metrics are what truly matter the most, and they favor Posey very highly. Posey being a top 10 defensive catcher and top 10 in wRC+ among catchers is what will really set him apart, aside from putting up 57.6 fWAR in such a short career.
So you know this to be fact by every single person who has a vote? I am not acting like anything, I did the research and posted it already of the C in the HOF all but 3 from what I found have 17 plus years. That is a fact no acting, The only catcher at 10 years is Roy Campanella, no one else under 13 years as a C is in the HOF. From what I research that is Fact.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
You’re acting like longevity is the most important thing, which is just isn’t. It’s brought up more than it really should be, but in the end stats and metrics are what truly matter the most, and they favor Posey very highly. Posey being a top 10 defensive catcher and top 10 in wRC+ among catchers is what will really set him apart, aside from putting up 57.6 fWAR in such a short career.
Also there is nothing written that the voters have to use any type of Criteria they can use what ever criteria they want hence Jeter had one person no vote for him. Voter's vote how ever they choose to vote. longevity seems to matter more than what you think to the voters.
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The HOF seems to love compilers. I don't consider Posey one, but I think he definitely gets in.
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Another fact Catchers make up less than 6 percent of HOF players. That is another thing going against Mauer, Posey and Molina when He gets there.
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I only have 1 thing to say. The BBWAA should have never been given the ability to elect HOF'ers. It should have always been by a retired players committee. And before you say "they can be elected by retired players committee", I mean there should only be one committee, not 4, that do selections.
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I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
I agree, That He can get there, but we will see.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
I think Salvy has a chance for sure. Like you said, he'd need to put up another 3-4 really strong years or 5-6 good years. Obviously if he duplicates or comes close to his 2021 campaign twice more it might do the trick. The Gold Gloves, all star appearances and broken home run record are a great start.
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Ted Simmons was a better catcher than both of them, and it took him 30 years to get into the HOF. It's just really hard to get in as a catcher....But both are absolutely worthy.
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@lucas8181_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Ted Simmons was a better catcher than both of them, and it took him 30 years to get into the HOF. It's just really hard to get in as a catcher....But both are absolutely worthy.
I alway wonder what was keeping voter from putting Simmons in
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I will say this. No matter your opinion on who deserves to get in the hall, this maybe the best objective thread of the year. Majorly basing this off of how civil everyone is being. No name calling or over the top condescension.
Way to stay on topic and do it with decorum.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I will say this. No matter your opinion on who deserves to get in the hall, this maybe the best objective thread of the year. Majorly basing this off of how civil everyone is being. No name calling or over the top condescension.
Way to stay on topic and do it with decorum.
Absolutely man. I like that everyone obviously has an opinion and I respect those who know more about analytics than I do. Well done all. Now what does everyone think of Austin Hedges getting in to the HOF...
I'll see myself out
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
Perez is only at 15.2 fWAR through his age 31 season. He has no shot whatsoever of catching up to Posey, Molina, or Mauer. Career 103 wRC+, -13.2 Off, only 7.1 Def on Fangraphs. He’s been a fine player, but as a whole he really hasn’t been anything special, certainly not on the level of the other 3. I’m not trying to make royals fans mad or anything, but Perez is easily one of the most overrated players of the decade.
He was also the second-worst defensive catcher in baseball this year by Fangraphs’ Def, for whatever that’s worth. But he had the best offensive season of his career too lol. He’s just never had a season where he’s good at both.
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What does Baseball Reference use for their WAR because they have him listed at 29.6.
Upon further review, I agree he is much further off then I thought. He'd have to go back to winning gold gloves and have a few monster seasons like this one.
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