Truth behind pack odds
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At what sample size should one start to see a return similar to the listed odds? Most people neglect sample size when talking about their pulls, but at some point that is high enough, it should come in to play.
10,000 packs was what I decided on, but I'm curious what size others believe to be adequate?
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Ive tested pack odds at the end of the playing year the last 2 years when im absolutely loaded with nothing to buy.
Last year i bought 1000 headliners twice. Let me tell you, you can open 400 packs, and the odds seem to be above 20:1 rather than 10:1, but eventually it all starts to even out and suddenly i was pulling diamonds every 2nd pack. Every time ive tested the odds with a high amount of packs it has always come close to the advertised rate.
For some reason, people dont seem to realise it is going vary dramatically with small sample sizes
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@wolftex77_psn said in Truth behind pack odds:
I'm a pack addict and should be playing show behind a dumpster but some how I keep pulling Diamonds BABY! JUST last night little baby Ramone pack Jesus sent me Jacob deGrom, I was foolish had 37k and with a little grinding would have easily earned enough for Arenados 57k price tag to complete NL and welcome Soriano and Banks to 21 but I couldn't fight the urge and spent everything I had opened a 10pk.there was nothing but 2 packs into my second 10 pack there it was all blue and shinny, after my wife scorned me for almost waking the kids yelling in the middle of the night I composed myself and haggled over 5k difference for an hour before I got Arenado and collected the NL then beat my friend lead by Soriano and his 2 dongs.
I only by 10 pks I'm superstitious and I truly believe people who enjoy buying packs win and people who are negative lose. Cold streaks suck but if you keep buying the hot streaks are to good to pass up. When I'm cold I just tell myself now I'm that much closer to yanking a big 1and next thing you know everything is blue
haha same brother. I opened 2 packs at lunch and pulled Acuna. Already have NL completed, so I sold him.
But, there is hope friend. Instead of dropping 180K on packs, I bought players and 18 hours later, I haven't sold them yet for packs
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@pennstatefencer said in Truth behind pack odds:
It was my understanding that there would be no math...
lol... its baseball... its pretty much all math.
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Essentially your probability of pulling a diamond is .02 where the probability of NOT pulling a diamond is .98.
If you wanted to calculate your odds of NOT pulling a diamond in "n" number of packs:
P = (0.98)^n
Likewise, 1-P is the probability you pull AT LEAST one diamond. I wanted to hit this down but I believe 1 diamond is (0.02)×(0.98^(n-1)). To calculate two or more order becomes important and I'd have to jot it out but it would still be some factor of nPr or nCr to account for ordering. -
@aaronjw76_psn said in Truth behind pack odds:
Here's the real truth: majority of people are mathematically illiterate such that even BASIC concepts of odds will cramp their brain and stun them into bewilderment.
lol absolutely true for the babies on this forum
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@usucwithoutmeta1_psn said in Truth behind pack odds:
I've pulled about 12-13 so far from conquest and affinity. That's far more than I pulled when I last played this mode 3 years sgo
I have pulled 5 all year which were worth about 80 k. I have all TA's done, 2 br programs, 60+ RS games, alien and U.S. conquest, 60 event wins for Miggy. I have done a ton. I won cole, bregman and another low level diamond from BR. Better for me to play BR than open packs.
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@duiaintez_psn said in Truth behind pack odds:
Essentially your probability of pulling a diamond is .02 where the probability of NOT pulling a diamond is .98.
If you wanted to calculate your odds of NOT pulling a diamond in "n" number of packs:
P = (0.98)^n
Likewise, 1-P is the probability you pull AT LEAST one diamond. I wanted to hit this down but I believe 1 diamond is (0.02)×(0.98^(n-1)). To calculate two or more order becomes important and I'd have to jot it out but it would still be some factor of nPr or nCr to account for ordering.i have no clue what this means but i just feel in my gut that you know exactly what you're talking about lol
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@scott_larock101 said in Truth behind pack odds:
I see a lot of people saying "I bought a 50 bundle I should've gotten a diamond"
Not necessarily, pack odds are all about probability at random, not per every 50 packs. So each pack has its own odds.
100% of the time you will pull at least a bronzeDiamonds are 1 in 50, meaning you have a 2% chance of pulling a diamond on any given pack. I would assume that within that 2% there is an undisclosed probability on low Diamonds 85-89 compared to high diamonds 90+ so the odds of pulling a Trout are more likely to be 1 in 25 or worse out of that 2%
It's all math, and each pack is random regardless if you buy 1 or 1000, and the house always wins.
true and false really.
Sure if your sample size is just 50 packs you might not get one. But if you were to open 5 billion packs you would find that you got 1 diamond every 50 packs. -
I pulled Trout last night from USA 10 pack reward. Last year I opened 8000 show packs in one sitting and didn't get him.
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@duiaintez_psn said in Truth behind pack odds:
Essentially your probability of pulling a diamond is .02 where the probability of NOT pulling a diamond is .98.
If you wanted to calculate your odds of NOT pulling a diamond in "n" number of packs:
P = (0.98)^n
Likewise, 1-P is the probability you pull AT LEAST one diamond. I wanted to hit this down but I believe 1 diamond is (0.02)×(0.98^(n-1)). To calculate two or more order becomes important and I'd have to jot it out but it would still be some factor of nPr or nCr to account for ordering.You are way to smart to be in this forum.
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My packs been hot enough. Hot enough I have been told I can’t complain about packs.
However I will point out that every scammer in the world has a reason to tell their mark how their scam isn’t a scam. If they didn’t it wouldn’t work.
Packs in here are a numbers game. At the beginning the odds are heavily in your favor. As you go on you really do have to open a lot to have a shot to beat the house. I give them a hard time especially when my packs go cold it can be maddening but I will give it to SDS they give tons of packs, rewards and way to make stubs. Plus you can buy stubs with cash instead of having to gamble with your cash to get in game currency. Out of all the sports games they are head and shoulders above everybody in this regard.
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We can't do the math because we don't have all the numbers. We don't know how many packs are being opened at any given moment, which is the most important number you'd need to do the math correctly along with the amount of diamonds being pulled out of the entirety of those opened packs.
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@pennstatefencer said in Truth behind pack odds:
It was my understanding that there would be no math...
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I'm at 97 regular packs in a row without pulling a gold, but I don't buy packs with real money either so I don't actually expect anything in the ones I open. I've only pulled one diamond all year (but at least it was Acuna)
And I've only pulled 1 diamond from Ballin packs also (Stanton) -
If you buy 50 packs, there is a 36.4% chance you will not get any diamonds. With 100, is it a 13.3% chance, and with 10, an 81% chance. Then you have to factor in that there are more lower diamonds, so it is more likely you'd get one of those even if you do pull a diamond.
I have had lousy luck this year, even pulling few golds from regular packs, but then got Acuna the other night from a Team Affinity pack.
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