Something I've noticed.
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My guess is that the odds do not actually change from the odds stated in game for the packs. There is way too much scrutiny these days over these types of transactions for them to be playing with drop rates.
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@dolenz_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
My guess is that the odds do not actually change from the odds stated in game for the packs. There is way too much scrutiny these days over these types of transactions for them to be playing with drop rates.
My guess is that very few people actually understand how odds/probability work.
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@gradekthebard said in Something I've noticed.:
@dolenz_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
My guess is that the odds do not actually change from the odds stated in game for the packs. There is way too much scrutiny these days over these types of transactions for them to be playing with drop rates.
My guess is that very few people actually understand how odds/probability work.
you would be spot on in this assessment,
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@gradekthebard said in Something I've noticed.:
@dolenz_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
My guess is that the odds do not actually change from the odds stated in game for the packs. There is way too much scrutiny these days over these types of transactions for them to be playing with drop rates.
My guess is that very few people actually understand how odds/probability work.
Probability aside, does anybody here know for sure how the packs work? We’ve never been advised how their drops work have we? Is it randomised as a 1 in 50 chance per pack or is there a definite one diamond in every 50 packs that are awarded or bought? Or are the packs pre-created with cards and bought as is (to mirror real life)?
Anybody know for sure?
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@red_ted_is_back said in Something I've noticed.:
@gradekthebard said in Something I've noticed.:
@dolenz_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
My guess is that the odds do not actually change from the odds stated in game for the packs. There is way too much scrutiny these days over these types of transactions for them to be playing with drop rates.
My guess is that very few people actually understand how odds/probability work.
Probability aside, does anybody here know for sure how the packs work? We’ve never been advised how their drops work have we? Is it randomised as a 1 in 50 chance per pack or is there a definite one diamond in every 50 packs that are awarded or bought? Or are the packs pre-created with cards and bought as is (to mirror real life)?
Anybody know for sure?
For every other game like this each pack is it’s own separate event and thus each pack has 1:50 odds of a diamond. Now, the diamonds themselves clearly aren’t equally distributed and they have never disclosed the odds of those.
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@gradekthebard said in Something I've noticed.:
@red_ted_is_back said in Something I've noticed.:
@gradekthebard said in Something I've noticed.:
@dolenz_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
My guess is that the odds do not actually change from the odds stated in game for the packs. There is way too much scrutiny these days over these types of transactions for them to be playing with drop rates.
My guess is that very few people actually understand how odds/probability work.
Probability aside, does anybody here know for sure how the packs work? We’ve never been advised how their drops work have we? Is it randomised as a 1 in 50 chance per pack or is there a definite one diamond in every 50 packs that are awarded or bought? Or are the packs pre-created with cards and bought as is (to mirror real life)?
Anybody know for sure?
For every other game like this each pack is it’s own separate event and thus each pack has 1:50 odds of a diamond. Now, the diamonds themselves clearly aren’t equally distributed and they have never disclosed the odds of those.
Is there anything documented for how other games work? Eg did EA disclose any code when it was under the pump?
It’s been speculated on this here forum that each pack isn’t a separate event. I’d love to get my hands on the code. I assume it’s server-side.Transparency goes a long way. Better still I’d love to write the code.
Not that I care about the outcomes. I’m more interested in the process. Franchise and RTTS for the win.
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Just to be clear I know how probability works. And it wasn't really a complaint about poor me I can't pull any diamonds... I pulled more diamond this year than any previous years. Just noticed that when I stopped putting in money to buy packs and was using whatever stubs I had in reserve to buy them it seemed to dry up.
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Back before the gov't shut down the online poker business, people used to talk about getting the "boom switch" and "doom switch." People would claim they would start getting a lot more hands go in their favor right after making a deposit and that they would start running super cold after making a withdrawal. It was always silly and no one reeeeally believed it, but it was an excuse to fall back on after losing a bunch of fish.
So all that's to say that yes, SDS absolutely 100% juices the packs of people who buy stubs. That's the only explanation for pulling a diamond like 1 time out of every 50 packs.
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I'd saved up 500K stubs recently and wasn't the least bit interested in any of the cards on the market. I decided to plough the stubs into packs just for fun, seeing as how 21 is almost here anyway. I pulled exactly six diamonds (all LS) from the 300 packs I purchased. I then exchanged the free agents and pulled an Awards Series diamond from the exchange packs. The original 6 diamonds out of 300 packs is perfectly the 1:50 ratio, which sort of impressed me. Only sort of, because I've actually pulled more diamonds after completing a conquest map, so sometimes the probability works out much better than anticipated. It was still sort of cool to pull the exact ratio from such a large number of packs. Won't likely be doing this again until the end of 21's cycle, if there's nothing good to purchase then. Obviously I didn't get my 500K back but I wasn't fussed about that at this point. I did get about 100K back and decided to waste that as well, purchasing a ridiculously expensive bat skin.
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Because its 2% chance for a diamond every pack, Not a 100% chance in 50 packs.
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How does the game differentiates between free stubs and paid stubs?
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@yankblan_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
How does the game differentiates between free stubs and paid stubs?
Just saying it was something I noticed. Not saying it was written in stone. Curious if anyone else had that experience
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@yankblan_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
How does the game differentiates between free stubs and paid stubs?
I don't think the game differentiates it to any extreme. The odds are what the odds are. It would be against the law to give people better odds that used real money to get stubs vs stubs earned in game that falls under fraud. I just don't think that is anywhere in the mindset of this development team. Or Sony as a whole.
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@grizzbear55_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
@yankblan_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
How does the game differentiates between free stubs and paid stubs?
I don't think the game differentiates it to any extreme. The odds are what the odds are. It would be against the law to give people better odds that used real money to get stubs vs stubs earned in game that falls under fraud. I just don't think that is anywhere in the mindset of this development team. Or Sony as a whole.
You're probably right there. And I'm sure it was all just a big coincidence. It was just something I had noticed.
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@kotank1334_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
Just saying it was something I noticed. Not saying it was written in stone. Curious if anyone else had that experience
Things you notice are always the anomaly. You notice them precisely because they're NOT what always happens.
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@kotank1334_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
@grizzbear55_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
@yankblan_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
How does the game differentiates between free stubs and paid stubs?
I don't think the game differentiates it to any extreme. The odds are what the odds are. It would be against the law to give people better odds that used real money to get stubs vs stubs earned in game that falls under fraud. I just don't think that is anywhere in the mindset of this development team. Or Sony as a whole.
You're probably right there. And I'm sure it was all just a big coincidence. It was just something I had noticed.
To go further in the theory though, is it possible that the odds are based off of timing? What i mean is, if i purchase a 50 pack, you purchased a 50 pack and one other person purchased a 50 pack, they all opened at same time does it then fall on whoever opened the 50th pack first? I dunno? Or every 50 th pack in general?
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@yankblan_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
How does the game differentiates between free stubs and paid stubs?
Are you referring to the stubs being purchased on one system not being available on the other (Xbox and PlayStation, that is)? It would be coded on the servers one would think.
It would be way easier to code it locally (on the client side) however that would leave it open for exploits.
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@savefarris_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
@kotank1334_psn said in Something I've noticed.:
Just saying it was something I noticed. Not saying it was written in stone. Curious if anyone else had that experience
Things you notice are always the anomaly. You notice them precisely because they're NOT what always happens.
That's deep
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I noticed when I buy more packs at one time I get more Diamonds this is with the HL for 7,500 since we be able to buy as many as we want. if I open like 105 packs I been getting 14 or more Diamonds. if I open 30 packs I get 1 or 2 if any. I think I only put in 200-400 extra in the first few months of the game. This year I will not put any extra money in the game. No need to.
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