Early release pack odds
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Anyone think there's a chance that there's a higher chance of getting diamonds in packs right away when the game's released? Or should you save stubs and just buy all your players individually?
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Usually you’ll have better chances of getting a diamond in packs at launch because of the volume of packs being opened.
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I remember packing a lot of lower diamonds early on last year actually.
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Odds are odds, they’re not hot or cold, or timing based. Unless they actually change them, March, July or next February doesn’t change a thing.
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That's actually what I was curious about. I know that odds are odds, don't change moment to moment. Just wondering if they actually do increase the odds without saying anything to get more of the players out there
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@SF-GiantsDynasty said in Early release pack odds:
That's actually what I was curious about. I know that odds are odds, don't change moment to moment. Just wondering if they actually do increase the odds without saying anything to get more of the players out there
Well, according to some foil-hat wearing people here, they do. I don’t buy it, but I’m not a conspiracy theory person.
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Lol okay
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@yankblan said in Early release pack odds:
@SF-GiantsDynasty said in Early release pack odds:
That's actually what I was curious about. I know that odds are odds, don't change moment to moment. Just wondering if they actually do increase the odds without saying anything to get more of the players out there
Well, according to some foil-hat wearing people here, they do. I don’t buy it, but I’m not a conspiracy theory person.
So are you saying that we need to start hoarding Reynolds Wrap?
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@SF-GiantsDynasty said in Early release pack odds:
That's actually what I was curious about. I know that odds are odds, don't change moment to moment. Just wondering if they actually do increase the odds without saying anything to get more of the players out there
They can do whatever they want and not tell us. I do believe they increase odds at the beginning and then adjust later on.
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If it is 50-1 means every 50 packs opened will be a diamond you just have to open the right one from 1-50, It really is hit and miss or lucky you get them, More packs everyone opens the better your chance of getting lucky. That is how I see it.
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@dbarmonstar said in Early release pack odds:
If it is 50-1 means every 50 packs opened will be a diamond you just have to open the right one from 1-50, It really is hit and miss or lucky you get them, More packs everyone opens the better your chance of getting lucky. That is how I see it.
Not exactly how odds work. 50-1 means you have a 2% chance at a diamond on every pack you open.
That 2% chance remains the same regardless of how many packs you open or diamonds you pull.
You could open 10 packs and get 2 diamonds, then open 100 packs and get none. Or vice versa.
This type of misunderstanding of how odds work is why lotteries are still so popular.
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"I was told there would be no math..."
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@abbyspapa said in Early release pack odds:
@dbarmonstar said in Early release pack odds:
If it is 50-1 means every 50 packs opened will be a diamond you just have to open the right one from 1-50, It really is hit and miss or lucky you get them, More packs everyone opens the better your chance of getting lucky. That is how I see it.
Not exactly how odds work. 50-1 means you have a 2% chance at a diamond on every pack you open.
That 2% chance remains the same regardless of how many packs you open or diamonds you pull.
You could open 10 packs and get 2 diamonds, then open 100 packs and get none. Or vice versa.
This type of misunderstanding of how odds work is why lotteries are still so popular.
it is not about how many packs I open, I do not get 50-1 odds. I can open 200 packs and not see a diamonds I understand that and I can open a 50 pack bundle and get 4 diamonds. -
Odds are a floor. If the stated odds show a 2% chance of scoring a diamond, then at no point will the odds of scoring a diamond from hat pack fall below 2%. Increasing the payout rate of a pack or set of packs incompletely legal though so long as the stated odds remain a floor.
Consider that in a casino the slot machines along the aisle are rigged to pay out more often, giving people wandering the casino floor more ringing bells and flashing lights to make them think there are so many winners. Machines along the aisles are set to pay out lower increments at higher rates. Machines in the middle of an aisle may pay out less often, but will pay out bigger jackpots when they hit. So long as the average amount of each machine paying out is equal over a set period of time there is no problem. Furthermore, if the 'house' wants to set machines to give away more money for a set period of time there is nothing wrong with that either...so long as the odds never decrease below the established floor.
Last year I got diamond Javier Baez on opening night from a pre-order pack. I didn't see another diamond come out of a pack until August. Coincidence? I think not.
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@Some_Schmuck_22 said in Early release pack odds:
Odds are a floor. If the stated odds show a 2% chance of scoring a diamond, then at no point will the odds of scoring a diamond from hat pack fall below 2%. Increasing the payout rate of a pack or set of packs incompletely legal though so long as the stated odds remain a floor.
Consider that in a casino the slot machines along the aisle are rigged to pay out more often, giving people wandering the casino floor more ringing bells and flashing lights to make them think there are so many winners. Machines along the aisles are set to pay out lower increments at higher rates. Machines in the middle of an aisle may pay out less often, but will pay out bigger jackpots when they hit. So long as the average amount of each machine paying out is equal over a set period of time there is no problem. Furthermore, if the 'house' wants to set machines to give away more money for a set period of time there is nothing wrong with that either...so long as the odds never decrease below the established floor.
Last year I got diamond Javier Baez on opening night from a pre-order pack. I didn't see another diamond come out of a pack until August. Coincidence? I think not.
Wow, that is some conclusion based on a whole lot of nothing
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Here's my hot take.
Pulls of cards are calculated from packs based on the X PCT of total cards in circulation. Opening day has lots of "free" packs being opened, so your LS diamond pulls are higher.
After the second week, it appears that LS cool off. They do. Less free packs being opened so your purchased packs aren't as "lit" since volume isn't correlating to the overall card population.
I have this theory based on how dumpster fire, the BIAH packs were, since people saw them all over all year.
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Personally, I've always just bought a ton of packs in the first few weeks of the game with whatever Stubs I earn. It just makes the game more exciting. Obviously if I pull say Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso for example, I'll test out both and see which I like better and sell off the other to buy an upgrade elsewhere on my squad.
But yeah, I love the first few weeks because it's the only time you're excited about pulling silvers and golds.
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