So the MLB The Show team has expressed that they want the most realistic simulation possible. And I feel they have taken leaps and bounds with 25 and from what I’m seeing 26 is building on it which is always great to see. However there is one lingering issue when it comes to hitting that I feel needs to be addressed in 26 that was such an issue all year in 25. “Hard Hit Balls.”
In MLB The Show, “hard hit balls” (95+ mph exit velocity) frequently result in routine fly outs and weak pop ups. That becomes frustrating when 70%+ of my good swings are 95+ mph and still turn into outs.
I actually looked into the real-world data on exit velocity, and here’s what it shows:
Real MLB Data on 95+ MPH Exit Velocity:
• 95+ mph overall: Roughly 50% of balls hit 95+ mph become hits.
• 95–99 mph range: ~.337 batting average with strong extra-base hit rates.
• 100–109 mph range: Batting average jumps to over .550.
• 110+ mph range: Batting average exceeds .700, often near .745.
• A 1 mph difference (94 vs 95 mph) can significantly change outcomes (from ~.265 to over .300).
• Launch angle matters heavily — “barreled” balls (95+ mph with optimal launch angle) have an even higher success rate.
So when 95–105 mph balls in-game are consistently turning into lazy fly outs or line outs, it feels disconnected from real-life results. In real MLB data, balls hit that hard are extremely productive especially once you get into the 100+ mph range.
I completely understand that gameplay balance matters and by no means am I suggesting it would always be a hit or 90% of the time be a hit. Because I’m assuming yall have years of baseball knowledge as do it. Often you can do everything right but it just doesn’t land. I can understand “hard outs.” But if hard-hit balls are going to be labeled as such, their outcomes should reflect how impactful they are in real baseball.
Right now it feels like exit velocity isn’t being rewarded at a rate that matches real-world performance, which can make good input feel meaningless.
Would love to hear if others are seeing similar results.