Community Forum

Update - April Stats in....

718 The Show packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 14-15 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 13. The odds of getting 13 or fewer diamonds is 40.77%. Slightly lower than advertised odds. This results is within norms.

157 Ballin packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 10.5 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 11. The odds of getting 11 or fewer diamonds is 61.5%. Slightly higher than advertised odds. This results is within norms.

Year to Date stats
249 Ballin packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 6.7% odds is 16.7 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 16. The odds of getting 16 or fewer diamonds is 47.7%. Slightly lower than odds advertised. This results is within norms.

1303 The Show packs opened, expected diamond pulled with 2% odds is 26 diamonds. Actual diamonds pulled was 22. The odds of getting 22 or fewer diamonds is 24.0%. This result is lower than average, but not extreme.

I am debating on expanding to find the expected stub gain from opening certain packs. I did a mini study with about 40 the show packs. The average stub gain per pack from those 40 packs was 333 stubs/pack. Well below the 1,500 stub cost of a pack.

@allday9128_PSN said:

@CoachPappy17_PSN said:

My opponent (censored) pauses the game and waits the entire time limit where I think I am getting a forfeit win.. no, there’s a forfeit all right, but he gets the win! WTH!!!!!!

Are you sure your opponent didnt let the timer run all the way down and then offer you a friendly quit, that you accepted without paying attenion because you thought it was a forefit?

Absolutely positive. I read the screen a few times before I exited

@Onix_Savage22_PSN said:

@CoachPappy17_PSN go back to game history click on the game report.

game history in game, or online. If its in game, I don't know where to find it. I can find it on the MLB the Show website for my team, but I can't find a link to report him.

@On_a_Power_Trip_PSN said:

you reported this person in game, right?

How?

Was just playing the event (I hate multiplayer!) due to the program attached to it. Won the first game (made me 1W 2L as I went 0-2 in the first attempt) got to the 2nd game and we went scoreless to the bottom of the third where I hit a dbl where my runner could have been called out at 2nd but wasn’t. My opponent (censored) pauses the game and waits the entire time limit where I think I am getting a forfeit win.. no, there’s a forfeit all right, but he gets the win! WTH!!!!!!

Update after opening 1000 The Show packs this year.
16 diamonds pulled resulting in a 1.6% success rate. Getting 16 or fewer successful tries occurs about 1 in 5 times. Uncommon, but not a rare occurrence.

At this time I have opened 189 Ballin packs. I have pulled a diamond 12 times for a 6.3% success rate. This rate is at the 48th percentile. A typical result.

Where I think I am completely unlucky is the value of the diamonds being pulled. The current total value of all my live series diamonds pulled is 383,468 stubs (sell now price) for an average of 17,430.36 stubs per diamond pulled. I have only pulled 6 of the top 25 most expensive based on the sell now price with Bobby Witt Jr. being the most expensive card pulled with a value of 150,223 stubs. I have pulled 16 of the bottom 23 Live diamonds. If all the diamond cards have the same odds of being pulled this outcome is EXTREMELY unlikely. It is in the range of a ~3.4 sigma event. This is the kind of outcome that would be considered statistically very rare. It points to the fact that SDS is misleading pack buyers of the odds of getting the higher value diamond cards. If not all diamonds are pulled at the same rate, then pack buyers should be made aware of the odds to pull each individual card as the odds of pulling a diamond would be misleading to the pack buyer.

I wanted to track the odds for getting Diamond Packs throughout the year. It has always been my feeling that MLB the show starts out tight with diamond packs, but then allows more to be pulled after most of us have completed the Live collection. I will continue to update this throughout the year. Looking at updating at least once a month.

April Packs opened/Diamonds
585 The Show packs opened. 9 Diamonds pulled. Realized Odds - 1.5% chance of pulling a diamond.
From AI
🧠 Interpretation
You expected about 11–12 diamonds
Getting 9 diamonds is a bit below average, but still very normal
This outcome is not unlucky at all—it happens roughly 1 in 11 times

April Ballin Packs
92 Ballin packs opened. 5 diamonds pulled. Realized odds - 5.4% chance of pulling a diamond
**From AI
🧠 Interpretation
Expected: ~6 diamonds
You got: 5 diamonds
That’s slightly below average, but very normal

This happens about 1 in 7 times**

Just finished the 40,000XP. My rewards - 4 players from 2 packs. 3 pulls were Jeff McNeil which I already had. Only pull I needed was Brendan Donovan. Will sell McNeils for about 2500 stubs each for 7500 total stubs. I averaged about 1400XP per game and that may be inflated. If that was the average it would take me 28 games to reach the 40K xp. At 15 minutes each, that is 7 hours of game time (I believe they said it would only take an hour or two for these multiplayer programs in their videos before release) to reach those 2 packs. NOT WORTH IT!!!. I also don't like that I am forced to play multiplayer to complete a themed program. I HATE ONLINE GAMES!!! I don't like people dragging their feet hoping you quit. I don't like people using the slide step knowing it causes a lag in the swing which makes you late on every fastball. I don't like being 61 yrs old so I can't do the pinpoint pitching (causes cramps in my fingers) so I am forced to use the classic pitching where you have no idea where the pitchis going. I don't know how many times I tried to throw a sinker low and away only for it to center cut the hitting zone to be turned into an HR for the opponent. Did I say I DONT LIKE MULTIPLAYER!!! Sorry rant over

Agreed, but landing a diamond there is pretty rare vs getting one in the 5th card spot. I have now landed 3 diamonds in a row there while going an entire week without landing a diamond in the 5th spot (over 300 packs)

There is definitely something wrong. Just pulled a new threads diamond from the uniform/unlockable spot in the pack. Another 11 packs - no live series diamond in a week

I am tracking odds. So far it is not looking good for SDS. I am getting to the point where the odds are close to impossible to be as bad as they are. Close to almost 300 packs without a Live diamond. Pretty close to a week without pulling a live diamond player. Thinking its a glitch and not something more. The last two diamond players I pulled were in the first card of the pack where the uniform/equipment card usually is. Both were WBC Cards

Same issue. Game 3 for me. It is Cats vs my time on the home page, but when I try to enter the game, it changes to Cats at Outlaws, but the logos are screwed up. My logo is where the cats should be, and another team (not the cats) is where my logo should be

Now over 200 the show or ballin packs since I last pulled a diamond (Freddie Freeman). I did get Mike Trout live card from a chase pack last night. Luck is not improving. We are now at very small odds for this to happen. There is a 1.76% (1 out of 57) chance of not getting a successful outcome with over 200 attempts and each chance attempt has a 2% chance to be successful.

Last year I was pretty lucky. Pulled Ohtani early and a total of three times throughout the year. This year not so much. I am currently riding a 120 The Show/Ballin packs diamond drought. Any else suffering through this with me? This should happen mathematically only 8.85% of the time.

Any place where we can find how long its going to be down?

I have them all done but inning pitched... any tricks? Im still about 3K innings short. Just over halfway. I play a lot!!1

I am not an elite player...in my 60's.. beat this on my 2nd try. Strategy...
Goal 1.) Play the two All Star games 1st, then the 6 HOF, finally the 2 legend. This will let you get used to the timing of the pitches and not have to switch back an forth between the levels.
Goal 2.) Steal fans from the last team you must face on turn 2. This will guarantee that you play all the remaining games on All Star or lower levels.
Optional - Stealing after turn2.. It will let you play games on veteran, but losing will make it tougher.

Team make up - Speed/contact with contact/power mixed in. Being able to steal 2nd and 3rd on legend is a must. Have SPEED on the bench

I'm just playing golf in my back yard simulator while I wait.

I have all collections completed except the July Lightning, all programs completed, all affinity programs completed through the November voucher and have 155K stubs. I don't do the card market nor multiplayer, just grinding. How are the rest of you doing?

Go with the series that sells for the most money. Usually that would be a series that is newer. Always take the card that is worth the most in resale, even if you already have that card. You can resell it and then buy a card you need while still having cash left over.