Community Forum

Update after opening 1000 The Show packs this year.
16 diamonds pulled resulting in a 1.6% success rate. Getting 16 or fewer successful tries occurs about 1 in 5 times. Uncommon, but not a rare occurrence.

At this time I have opened 189 Ballin packs. I have pulled a diamond 12 times for a 6.3% success rate. This rate is at the 48th percentile. A typical result.

Where I think I am completely unlucky is the value of the diamonds being pulled. The current total value of all my live series diamonds pulled is 383,468 stubs (sell now price) for an average of 17,430.36 stubs per diamond pulled. I have only pulled 6 of the top 25 most expensive based on the sell now price with Bobby Witt Jr. being the most expensive card pulled with a value of 150,223 stubs. I have pulled 16 of the bottom 23 Live diamonds. If all the diamond cards have the same odds of being pulled this outcome is EXTREMELY unlikely. It is in the range of a ~3.4 sigma event. This is the kind of outcome that would be considered statistically very rare. It points to the fact that SDS is misleading pack buyers of the odds of getting the higher value diamond cards. If not all diamonds are pulled at the same rate, then pack buyers should be made aware of the odds to pull each individual card as the odds of pulling a diamond would be misleading to the pack buyer.

I wanted to track the odds for getting Diamond Packs throughout the year. It has always been my feeling that MLB the show starts out tight with diamond packs, but then allows more to be pulled after most of us have completed the Live collection. I will continue to update this throughout the year. Looking at updating at least once a month.

April Packs opened/Diamonds
585 The Show packs opened. 9 Diamonds pulled. Realized Odds - 1.5% chance of pulling a diamond.
From AI
🧠 Interpretation
You expected about 11–12 diamonds
Getting 9 diamonds is a bit below average, but still very normal
This outcome is not unlucky at all—it happens roughly 1 in 11 times

April Ballin Packs
92 Ballin packs opened. 5 diamonds pulled. Realized odds - 5.4% chance of pulling a diamond
**From AI
🧠 Interpretation
Expected: ~6 diamonds
You got: 5 diamonds
That’s slightly below average, but very normal

This happens about 1 in 7 times**

Just finished the 40,000XP. My rewards - 4 players from 2 packs. 3 pulls were Jeff McNeil which I already had. Only pull I needed was Brendan Donovan. Will sell McNeils for about 2500 stubs each for 7500 total stubs. I averaged about 1400XP per game and that may be inflated. If that was the average it would take me 28 games to reach the 40K xp. At 15 minutes each, that is 7 hours of game time (I believe they said it would only take an hour or two for these multiplayer programs in their videos before release) to reach those 2 packs. NOT WORTH IT!!!. I also don't like that I am forced to play multiplayer to complete a themed program. I HATE ONLINE GAMES!!! I don't like people dragging their feet hoping you quit. I don't like people using the slide step knowing it causes a lag in the swing which makes you late on every fastball. I don't like being 61 yrs old so I can't do the pinpoint pitching (causes cramps in my fingers) so I am forced to use the classic pitching where you have no idea where the pitchis going. I don't know how many times I tried to throw a sinker low and away only for it to center cut the hitting zone to be turned into an HR for the opponent. Did I say I DONT LIKE MULTIPLAYER!!! Sorry rant over

Agreed, but landing a diamond there is pretty rare vs getting one in the 5th card spot. I have now landed 3 diamonds in a row there while going an entire week without landing a diamond in the 5th spot (over 300 packs)

There is definitely something wrong. Just pulled a new threads diamond from the uniform/unlockable spot in the pack. Another 11 packs - no live series diamond in a week

I am tracking odds. So far it is not looking good for SDS. I am getting to the point where the odds are close to impossible to be as bad as they are. Close to almost 300 packs without a Live diamond. Pretty close to a week without pulling a live diamond player. Thinking its a glitch and not something more. The last two diamond players I pulled were in the first card of the pack where the uniform/equipment card usually is. Both were WBC Cards

Same issue. Game 3 for me. It is Cats vs my time on the home page, but when I try to enter the game, it changes to Cats at Outlaws, but the logos are screwed up. My logo is where the cats should be, and another team (not the cats) is where my logo should be

Now over 200 the show or ballin packs since I last pulled a diamond (Freddie Freeman). I did get Mike Trout live card from a chase pack last night. Luck is not improving. We are now at very small odds for this to happen. There is a 1.76% (1 out of 57) chance of not getting a successful outcome with over 200 attempts and each chance attempt has a 2% chance to be successful.

Last year I was pretty lucky. Pulled Ohtani early and a total of three times throughout the year. This year not so much. I am currently riding a 120 The Show/Ballin packs diamond drought. Any else suffering through this with me? This should happen mathematically only 8.85% of the time.

Any place where we can find how long its going to be down?

I have them all done but inning pitched... any tricks? Im still about 3K innings short. Just over halfway. I play a lot!!1

I am not an elite player...in my 60's.. beat this on my 2nd try. Strategy...
Goal 1.) Play the two All Star games 1st, then the 6 HOF, finally the 2 legend. This will let you get used to the timing of the pitches and not have to switch back an forth between the levels.
Goal 2.) Steal fans from the last team you must face on turn 2. This will guarantee that you play all the remaining games on All Star or lower levels.
Optional - Stealing after turn2.. It will let you play games on veteran, but losing will make it tougher.

Team make up - Speed/contact with contact/power mixed in. Being able to steal 2nd and 3rd on legend is a must. Have SPEED on the bench

I'm just playing golf in my back yard simulator while I wait.

I have all collections completed except the July Lightning, all programs completed, all affinity programs completed through the November voucher and have 155K stubs. I don't do the card market nor multiplayer, just grinding. How are the rest of you doing?

Go with the series that sells for the most money. Usually that would be a series that is newer. Always take the card that is worth the most in resale, even if you already have that card. You can resell it and then buy a card you need while still having cash left over.

Straight from AI

Result:
After completing these calculations (using a calculator or software), the probability of achieving the desired result 4 times or less in 10 attempts, with a 72.2% chance of success on each attempt, is approximately 0.015 (or 1.5%).
This indicates that it is relatively unlikely to achieve the desired result so few times given the high probability of success on each individual trial

said in Diamond Quest - "Prime" version:

said in Diamond Quest - "Prime" version:

I did the math, and with the average chance of winning the pack through my 4 attempts being 76.5%, there is only a 4% chance that I would only win the pack one time. So either I am extremely unlucky, or SDS is lying. I am going to make one more run and see what the results are.

Played another rd and again, beat the showdown all 19 times, but only received 5% boost after winning a showdown twice (please, someone tell me how to get 5% instead of 3%, or is it just chance?). This meant my % for winning the pack was 69% at All Star level and 77% at Hall of Fame. Played both 3 inning games at the Hall of Fame level for the 77% chance. Won both games but only got 1 pack.

The math. These two games played at 77% brings the average chance for all 6 games to 76.67%. I have won 2 of 6 times with those odds. The probability of achieving the desired result exactly twice in 6 attempts is approximately 2.39%. Something is wrong here SDS!

Just played another rd (2 hours wasted). Played the final 2 games with a 67% chance to win the pack (was tired and didn't want to pay HoF). I got 1 pack out of the two games. So I now have 3 successes out of 8 chances with the average odds of success for each attempt now at 74.25%. The odds of having 3 or less successful outcomes out of 8 attempts with the odds for success at 74.25% for each attempt is at 0.77%. That's right, less than one percent. SDS seems to be misrepresenting the truth here.

said in Diamond Quest - "Prime" version:

I did the math, and with the average chance of winning the pack through my 4 attempts being 76.5%, there is only a 4% chance that I would only win the pack one time. So either I am extremely unlucky, or SDS is lying. I am going to make one more run and see what the results are.

Played another rd and again, beat the showdown all 19 times, but only received 5% boost after winning a showdown twice (please, someone tell me how to get 5% instead of 3%, or is it just chance?). This meant my % for winning the pack was 69% at All Star level and 77% at Hall of Fame. Played both 3 inning games at the Hall of Fame level for the 77% chance. Won both games but only got 1 pack.

The math. These two games played at 77% brings the average chance for all 6 games to 76.67%. I have won 2 of 6 times with those odds. The probability of achieving the desired result exactly twice in 6 attempts is approximately 2.39%. Something is wrong here SDS!

I did the math, and with the average chance of winning the pack through my 4 attempts being 76.5%, there is only a 4% chance that I would only win the pack one time. So either I am extremely unlucky, or SDS is lying. I am going to make one more run and see what the results are.

I don't think the odds are legit. Played through the latest diamond quest twice and won every "showdown". The first time I played both at the all star level, I think it was 76% chance to win the pack. I won both games but only got one pack.. ok, bad luck. The 2nd time I had a 73% chance at the all star level and played the first game, no pack. The 2nd game I played at Hall of Fame level which was 81% chance to win the pack. Won the game, but again, no pack. So if the odds are correct, I should have won 3 packs in my 4 chances, but I only won 1 pack... Small sample size, but it takes way too long to complete this mode only to not win the prize even with the "odds" (lol) on your side.