Pack Odds
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I think I have defied the odds. I’m sure there’s many others like me. But this is fascinating. I’ve opened close to around 200 standard packs and around 20 BIAH packs. I have a LS Hader to show for it. Truly remarkable. Pack odds are either absolute [censored] this year or theres much more than an RNG at play here.
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You’re just have bad luck. Not a crazy anomaly. Let us know when you get ohtani a multiple diamonds in a row. I’ve pulled 3 90 cards out of standards so far
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I just opened that gold pack with 1/2 odds of the diamond with 10 golds in the pack at least.
NOT 1 DIAMOND.
its all random.
Pulled Chapman right before to sell and try the pack.
Could've bought Seager. Little annoyed, but that's the show life. You win some and lose some -
Become a content creator, dude.
It's amazing how much "luck" they all get whilst the rest of us saps rip 50+ BIAH packs (at 15:1 odds) and can't even pull a diamond.
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Are they lucky,or do they just edit out all the packs that are duds
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@PAinPA_PSN
They pull hundreds of packs in one sitting, thats why it seems like they get so many. Most people will just open packs the second they get them -
I am tracking odds. So far it is not looking good for SDS. I am getting to the point where the odds are close to impossible to be as bad as they are. Close to almost 300 packs without a Live diamond. Pretty close to a week without pulling a live diamond player. Thinking its a glitch and not something more. The last two diamond players I pulled were in the first card of the pack where the uniform/equipment card usually is. Both were WBC Cards
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Ya'll talking about diamonds. Heck, I'm just grateful for silver haha.
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There is definitely something wrong. Just pulled a new threads diamond from the uniform/unlockable spot in the pack. Another 11 packs - no live series diamond in a week
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That’s where they put non-LS diamonds in standard packs. They started doing that last year.
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Agreed, but landing a diamond there is pretty rare vs getting one in the 5th card spot. I have now landed 3 diamonds in a row there while going an entire week without landing a diamond in the 5th spot (over 300 packs)
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@CoachPappy17_PSN the pack odds are certainly not 1 in 50. Thats a bold face lie. If the odds were true every once in a while you would get 3 diamonds or more out of every 50. Never happens.
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You all need to educate yourself on probabilities. The odds aren’t based on the number of packs you open, it’s a 1:50 chance for that specific pack. Basic probability lesson is a coin flip, before you flip, it’s a 50/50 chance at heads, next coin flip, it’s still a 50/50 chance to get heads. You could flip tails 100 times in a row and the chance of heads on the next flip is still 50/50.
Some people will pull diamonds frequently, some will never seem to pull diamonds. When you look at the statistical data over millions of transactions, I can almost guarantee you that the probability comes out to 1:50 for each pack to pull a diamond.
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And of those 1:50 pulls 99% are low diamonds in the 85-86 range. Plus factoring in diamond items and non live series low diamonds and the odds of pulling a good diamond are extremely low, more like 1:1000, or 1:12,500 for Ohtani or Judge. So although technically correct odds, they are heavily skewed and very unrewarding the vast majority of the time.
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@TripleH-4481_PSN sounds about right. Realistically you probably have to open about 10,000 packs to pull a judge or ohtani. Is there a place you can go to see how many packs you have opened?
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I am tracking odds. So far it is not looking good for SDS.
Sounds like its not looking good for you
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@TripleH-4481_PSN sounds about right. Realistically you probably have to open about 10,000 packs to pull a judge or ohtani. Is there a place you can go to see how many packs you have opened?
12,500 is expected for Ohtani specifically (or Judge specifically...not either or)
And that will have a high variance -
The fact Ohtani and judge are that hard to pull considering they will both have at least 1 or 2 cards that far exceed their live series is beyond ridiculous.
I understand they are both gatekeepers so you are paying for rarity and the other stuff it unlocks but even so it’s still simply pure greed to get the whales to spend as much money as possible over the first few weeks of the game.
Finishing live series super late in the season is basically pointless because even the collection rewards will be far surpassed by numerous other cards at that point.
I’m not calling for it to be made super easy just to be made a bit more doable as opposed to almost impossible unless you are ridiculously lucky and/or spend a lot of extra money.
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The question is, if they made live series easier how would they ramp up monetization elsewhere to make up for their cash cow being made less beefy?
I'm not sure I want to know the answer to that.
