99 Posey Incoming
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@the_dragon1912 said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@the_dragon1912 said in 99 Posey Incoming:
My thoughts on Posey/Yadi/Mauer. I think Yadi has the best shot of the 3 to make the HOF due to his longevity, plus he is the best defensive catcher ever. Posey and Mauer are superior offensive players than Yadi when it comes to averages, Mauer being the best offensive player overall of the 3. A lot of people are bringing up WS rings with Posey and it doesn't help him as much as people think it does. I think posey was a fantastic player, but he is Basically Jorge Posada with better defense and an MVP award. Posada dropped off the ballot after his first year. Gary Carter(who is undoubtably a top 5 catcher of all time) took 6 tries to get in the hall. While many may look at posey and think he is a clear cut hall of famer, you just don't know the voters. They are extremely strict with how they evaluate. And before anyone says Harold Baines, he got in because of his buddies on the veterans committee, not the BBWAA
Posey has the best shot due to his fWAR total in such a short amount of time, along with being a top 10 defensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Def, being a top 20 offensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Off, and in the top 10 among wRC+ for catchers. Posey is currently the 8th best catcher in terms of fWAR, while Molina is the 10th. However, Posey doing that in nearly 2,700 less PA than Molina makes it even more impressive. Posey’s shorter career only helps him, not hurt him. Posey’s combination of being an all all-time elite offensive catcher while being in the top 10 all-time defensive catchers gives him the edge over Molina being 1st defensively and around 530th in Fangraphs’ Off (149th in wRC+) among catchers.
Posada and Posey aren’t even comparable tbh. Posada has 40.4 career fWAR, while Posey has 57.6 in 1500 less PA. Posey was slightly better in terms of wRC+, and also had elite defense to go with it. Posada shouldn’t be in the hall of fame with only 40 fWAR, but Posey will be with nearly 60. If they had the analytics back then that we have now, Carter would’ve been in on the first ballot guaranteed. Voters are looking at advanced stats more and more these days, and the stats highly favor Posey as a first ballot hall of famer.
While I agree with you on your assessment, voters are still not looking at advanced stats as much as they should be. If they were, Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner would be in by now. Rolen has gained traction in the past few years, but the best left handed reliever of all time is not on track to make the HOF. If I personally had a vote, I would take Posey out of the 3. Also if you are only looking at offensive numbers Posey and Posada are extremely comparable. Posey better batting average, Posada better slugging and OPS. Posey's defense sets him apart from Posada, absolutely, and taking both sides of the game into account Posey is certainly the most well rounded. That being said I would like to see what Mauers first couple of years on the ballot look like before claiming Posey to be a HOF lock. I know Mauer played 1B at the end of his career, but longevity means a lot to voters, and Posey just doesn't have that
I also agree that they could absolutely be looking at advanced stats even more than they already do. I think that’ll change pretty considerably in the next 5 years before Posey is on the ballot. Personally, I think Posey is in a tier above Mauer, so I wouldn’t be worried about what happens with him. I do think voters and other people place way too much emphasis on longevity. If two players that play the same position have the exact same fWAR, but one did it in 10 years while the other did it in 18, the one that did it in 10 years is a much more impressive player.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@the_dragon1912 said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@the_dragon1912 said in 99 Posey Incoming:
My thoughts on Posey/Yadi/Mauer. I think Yadi has the best shot of the 3 to make the HOF due to his longevity, plus he is the best defensive catcher ever. Posey and Mauer are superior offensive players than Yadi when it comes to averages, Mauer being the best offensive player overall of the 3. A lot of people are bringing up WS rings with Posey and it doesn't help him as much as people think it does. I think posey was a fantastic player, but he is Basically Jorge Posada with better defense and an MVP award. Posada dropped off the ballot after his first year. Gary Carter(who is undoubtably a top 5 catcher of all time) took 6 tries to get in the hall. While many may look at posey and think he is a clear cut hall of famer, you just don't know the voters. They are extremely strict with how they evaluate. And before anyone says Harold Baines, he got in because of his buddies on the veterans committee, not the BBWAA
Posey has the best shot due to his fWAR total in such a short amount of time, along with being a top 10 defensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Def, being a top 20 offensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Off, and in the top 10 among wRC+ for catchers. Posey is currently the 8th best catcher in terms of fWAR, while Molina is the 10th. However, Posey doing that in nearly 2,700 less PA than Molina makes it even more impressive. Posey’s shorter career only helps him, not hurt him. Posey’s combination of being an all all-time elite offensive catcher while being in the top 10 all-time defensive catchers gives him the edge over Molina being 1st defensively and around 530th in Fangraphs’ Off (149th in wRC+) among catchers.
Posada and Posey aren’t even comparable tbh. Posada has 40.4 career fWAR, while Posey has 57.6 in 1500 less PA. Posey was slightly better in terms of wRC+, and also had elite defense to go with it. Posada shouldn’t be in the hall of fame with only 40 fWAR, but Posey will be with nearly 60. If they had the analytics back then that we have now, Carter would’ve been in on the first ballot guaranteed. Voters are looking at advanced stats more and more these days, and the stats highly favor Posey as a first ballot hall of famer.
While I agree with you on your assessment, voters are still not looking at advanced stats as much as they should be. If they were, Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner would be in by now. Rolen has gained traction in the past few years, but the best left handed reliever of all time is not on track to make the HOF. If I personally had a vote, I would take Posey out of the 3. Also if you are only looking at offensive numbers Posey and Posada are extremely comparable. Posey better batting average, Posada better slugging and OPS. Posey's defense sets him apart from Posada, absolutely, and taking both sides of the game into account Posey is certainly the most well rounded. That being said I would like to see what Mauers first couple of years on the ballot look like before claiming Posey to be a HOF lock. I know Mauer played 1B at the end of his career, but longevity means a lot to voters, and Posey just doesn't have that
I also agree that they could absolutely be looking at advanced stats even more than they already do. I think that’ll change pretty considerably in the next 5 years before Posey is on the ballot. Personally, I think Posey is in a tier above Mauer, so I wouldn’t be worried about what happens with him. I do think voters and other people place way too much emphasis on longevity. If two players that play the same position have the exact same fWAR, but one did it in 10 years while the other did it in 18, the one that did it in 10 years is a much more impressive player.
I absolutely agree, and I would love to see the voters thought processes change in the next few years, I'm just not holding my breath. We shall wait and see I suppose. I wish the voters were more objective when selecting players to the hall. My almost every statistic you can think of, Scott Rolen is a top 10 3B of all time, he just doesn't have that wow factor that voters tend to use. On this years ballot i am very interested to see if any voters cast Arod on their ballots but not Bonds/ Clemens. I know it will happen, but that will still be rediculous
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@the_dragon1912 said in 99 Posey Incoming:
My thoughts on Posey/Yadi/Mauer. I think Yadi has the best shot of the 3 to make the HOF due to his longevity, plus he is the best defensive catcher ever. Posey and Mauer are superior offensive players than Yadi when it comes to averages, Mauer being the best offensive player overall of the 3. A lot of people are bringing up WS rings with Posey and it doesn't help him as much as people think it does. I think posey was a fantastic player, but he is Basically Jorge Posada with better defense and an MVP award. Posada dropped off the ballot after his first year. Gary Carter(who is undoubtably a top 5 catcher of all time) took 6 tries to get in the hall. While many may look at posey and think he is a clear cut hall of famer, you just don't know the voters. They are extremely strict with how they evaluate. And before anyone says Harold Baines, he got in because of his buddies on the veterans committee, not the BBWAA
Posey has the best shot due to his fWAR total in such a short amount of time, along with being a top 10 defensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Def, being a top 20 offensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Off, and in the top 10 among wRC+ for catchers. Posey is currently the 8th best catcher in terms of fWAR, while Molina is the 10th. However, Posey doing that in nearly 2,700 less PA than Molina makes it even more impressive. Posey’s shorter career only helps him, not hurt him. Posey’s combination of being an all all-time elite offensive catcher while being in the top 10 all-time defensive catchers gives him the edge over Molina being 1st defensively and around 530th in Fangraphs’ Off (149th in wRC+) among catchers.
Posada and Posey aren’t even comparable tbh. Posada has 40.4 career fWAR, while Posey has 57.6 in 1500 less PA. Posey was slightly better in terms of wRC+, and also had elite defense to go with it. Posada shouldn’t be in the hall of fame with only 40 fWAR, but Posey will be with nearly 60. If analytics were as widespread then as they are now, Carter would’ve been in on the first ballot guaranteed. Voters are looking at advanced stats more and more these days as old voters leave and younger ones take their place, and the stats highly favor Posey as a first ballot hall of famer.
It's interesting how different bWAR vs fWAR are for some players. Baseball Reference has Posada at 42.7, very close to fWAR, while its 44.9 for Posey, which is quite the difference between his fWAR you stated above. Its interesting.
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@gradekthebard said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Hall of really good, but borderline hall of famer at best. He might get in, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.
The Post Season will help his cause to get in.
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@poksey_mlbts said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@the_dragon1912 said in 99 Posey Incoming:
My thoughts on Posey/Yadi/Mauer. I think Yadi has the best shot of the 3 to make the HOF due to his longevity, plus he is the best defensive catcher ever. Posey and Mauer are superior offensive players than Yadi when it comes to averages, Mauer being the best offensive player overall of the 3. A lot of people are bringing up WS rings with Posey and it doesn't help him as much as people think it does. I think posey was a fantastic player, but he is Basically Jorge Posada with better defense and an MVP award. Posada dropped off the ballot after his first year. Gary Carter(who is undoubtably a top 5 catcher of all time) took 6 tries to get in the hall. While many may look at posey and think he is a clear cut hall of famer, you just don't know the voters. They are extremely strict with how they evaluate. And before anyone says Harold Baines, he got in because of his buddies on the veterans committee, not the BBWAA
Posey has the best shot due to his fWAR total in such a short amount of time, along with being a top 10 defensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Def, being a top 20 offensive catcher based on Fangraphs’ Off, and in the top 10 among wRC+ for catchers. Posey is currently the 8th best catcher in terms of fWAR, while Molina is the 10th. However, Posey doing that in nearly 2,700 less PA than Molina makes it even more impressive. Posey’s shorter career only helps him, not hurt him. Posey’s combination of being an all all-time elite offensive catcher while being in the top 10 all-time defensive catchers gives him the edge over Molina being 1st defensively and around 530th in Fangraphs’ Off (149th in wRC+) among catchers.
Posada and Posey aren’t even comparable tbh. Posada has 40.4 career fWAR, while Posey has 57.6 in 1500 less PA. Posey was slightly better in terms of wRC+, and also had elite defense to go with it. Posada shouldn’t be in the hall of fame with only 40 fWAR, but Posey will be with nearly 60. If analytics were as widespread then as they are now, Carter would’ve been in on the first ballot guaranteed. Voters are looking at advanced stats more and more these days as old voters leave and younger ones take their place, and the stats highly favor Posey as a first ballot hall of famer.
It's interesting how different bWAR vs fWAR are for some players. Baseball Reference has Posada at 42.7, very close to fWAR, while its 44.9 for Posey, which is quite the difference between his fWAR you stated above. Its interesting.
Generally fWAR is considered the more reliable and better formula of the two, for position players at least.
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I agree with all of you that the Hall shouldn't put so much emphasis on certain benchmark stats that require longevity and focus more on the impact the player had in his time. I think if a player spends much of his career on the disabled list, that is definitely going to impact his chances, but Posey is an interesting case because he is choosing to retire younger than many people anticipated. Based on this last year, it's safe to assume he would have had another 1-3 years of all star quality play.
I do think longevity needs to count for something, but it doesn't have to be the barometer.
Yadi playing so many games at such a demanding position and continuously doing it at a high level is incredibly impressive. There are not many who can withstand that as is evident by the transition to first for Mauer and the shortened career of Posey.
Whoever compared Yadi to Ozzie is right on the money. His ticket to Cooperstown is a shelf full of gold gloves and he is widely regarded as the best or at least top 5. But offensively, Posey and Mauer are far better players.
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As I stated earlier. I brought up Mauer initially into the conversation because he’s going to have first crack at the hall. I think this may set the precedent of what to come for Molina and Posey. If we look at career WAR and what not they all are near one another. Posey most likely would lead this category if he continued to play.
I’m not sure how advanced stats will matter. Talking to a bunch of baseball buddies, when I mention Yadi they say hall of famer no doubt.
When I mention Posey it’s iffy.
When I mention Mauer no one really recalls his career.
This is a discussion i had with age groups 30-70 and this is a summary of the initial reaction with out a deep dive.
Consensus with out looking at stats people assume Yadi is a shoe in, Posey on the fence and no one is even tracking Mauer.
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@gradekthebard said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Hall of really good, but borderline hall of famer at best. He might get in, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.
I would love to hear your explanation on your thoughts??
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@gradekthebard said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Hall of really good, but borderline hall of famer at best. He might get in, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.
The Post Season will help his cause to get in.
I agree. I know Posada has more rings and that hasn't helped him but he was one piece of a total juggernaut. Those 3 Giants championships were out of nowhere, much like their season this year. Nobody expected the Giants to be that good any of those years and whole they had many supporting players (especially this year) and beastly postseason performances from their aces, Posey was the star position player on those 3 championship teams. It just feels different than Posada.
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@ericulous1_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I agree with all of you that the Hall shouldn't put so much emphasis on certain benchmark stats that require longevity and focus more on the impact the player had in his time. I think if a player spends much of his career on the disabled list, that is definitely going to impact his chances, but Posey is an interesting case because he is choosing to retire younger than many people anticipated. Based on this last year, it's safe to assume he would have had another 1-3 years of all star quality play.
I do think longevity needs to count for something, but it doesn't have to be the barometer.
Yadi playing so many games at such a demanding position and continuously doing it at a high level is incredibly impressive. There are not many who can withstand that as is evident by the transition to first for Mauer and the shortened career of Posey.
Whoever compared Yadi to Ozzie is right on the money. His ticket to Cooperstown is a shelf full of gold gloves and he is widely regarded as the best or at least top 5. But offensively, Posey and Mauer are far better players.
Recently Andruw Jones got taken off the ballot. So I don’t really know what voters are looking for.
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@ericulous1_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@nymets1987_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I cannot wait for this program
So you think there will be a program just for Posey like they did with Scherzer and Miggy? That would be rad.
Ha.... u said rad!!
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@dustydelap_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@ericulous1_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@nymets1987_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I cannot wait for this program
So you think there will be a program just for Posey like they did with Scherzer and Miggy? That would be rad.
Ha.... u said rad!!
Guilty! 80s-90s kid here.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@ericulous1_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I agree with all of you that the Hall shouldn't put so much emphasis on certain benchmark stats that require longevity and focus more on the impact the player had in his time. I think if a player spends much of his career on the disabled list, that is definitely going to impact his chances, but Posey is an interesting case because he is choosing to retire younger than many people anticipated. Based on this last year, it's safe to assume he would have had another 1-3 years of all star quality play.
I do think longevity needs to count for something, but it doesn't have to be the barometer.
Yadi playing so many games at such a demanding position and continuously doing it at a high level is incredibly impressive. There are not many who can withstand that as is evident by the transition to first for Mauer and the shortened career of Posey.
Whoever compared Yadi to Ozzie is right on the money. His ticket to Cooperstown is a shelf full of gold gloves and he is widely regarded as the best or at least top 5. But offensively, Posey and Mauer are far better players.
Recently Andruw Jones got taken off the ballot. So I don’t really know what voters are looking for.
Right??? Come on, he was in Willie Mays territory for gold gloves and 400+ HRs doesn't hurt.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO.
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If you go look at the Catchers that are in Posey not playing in 2020 and his first year only 7 games puts him at 10 years. one of the those years only 45 games. Roy Campanella played only 10 years you know the story. Michey Cochrane played 13 years. Yeah compared to other catchers in the HOF Posey I do not think will get in. Longevity does matter. Should Thurman Munson be in the HOF?
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@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
If Posey gets in then Munson should be in
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
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This is the cross roads we are at with advanced analytics. Before there were bench marks to hit. 2000 hits-3000 hits. 400-600 hrs. Career .300 hitter. Plus 5 GG.
So what’s more important? And what is the Hall of Fame voters looking for. Counting stats, benchmarks, or WAR. Do they all play in. What weights more?
