Pack Odds

SDS

Apropos of nothing, I just opened 102 regular packs before getting a diamond player (12.73% odds of that happening).

I've got a ridiculous pile of cards at the minute at which I've been chipping away before games by opening packs until I open one with a diamond player.

My longest streak is 169 packs with no diamonds. Odds of that: 3.42%

SDS

Another long streak. 216 packs for 1 Diamond. Odds of that: 1.30%

Combined odds of achieving today's results: 0.16%

I'm no conspiracy nutjob, but I'm starting to wonder if something is amiss with the packs, either intentionally or unintentionally.

Thoughts?

SDS

You're not calculating the odds correctly. Also, you're not able to calculate the odds correctly because you have no insight in how many packs are opened in total. You only know how many you've opened, but the odds on packs are for the entire population. You can get 1 diamond in 1000 packs and the odds they communicate can still be true.

SDS

I've opened 1500 headliners in one go this year and my diamond odds came to like within .02% of what was advertised, so given variance, that's pretty darn close.

SDS

@raesONE said in Pack Odds:

You're not calculating the odds correctly. Also, you're not able to calculate the odds correctly because you have no insight in how many packs are opened in total. You only know how many you've opened, but the odds on packs are for the entire population. You can get 1 diamond in 1000 packs and the odds they communicate can still be true.

Obviously the sample size is less than ideal, but to say that the analysis isn't worthwhile or at all accurate is vastly overstating a vanishingly small counterpoint.

SDS

Everything's a scandal these days

SDS

@eatyum said in Pack Odds:

I've opened 1500 headliners in one go this year and my diamond odds came to like within .02% of what was advertised, so given variance, that's pretty darn close.

My odds have been absolutely ridiculous on headliners, as you well know. Lol.