WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
He would not have the same stats, To my point his WAR would be different, Not saying he would be a worst player but his WAR could be lower or higher was the question.
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@GrandpaShaft said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
Everything you just said was incorrect.
Ok
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Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better? -
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
He would not have the same stats, To my point his WAR would be different, Not saying he would be a worst player but his WAR could be lower or higher was the question.
Huh?! Why would he not have the same stats? You didn't establish that in your scenario.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
WAR is accumulated based on how many wins a player has provided to his team compared to a replacement level player at the same position in a particular year.
This number changes based on the average of competition in a particular year.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.10 runs saved or made "compared to a replacement level player of that time" equals 1 WAR I'm pretty sure.
I know that, using WAR to compare players of different era's is flawed. Because of the talent in which each ERA is different the WAR is different based on the team you play for and how good other players on that does. For instants If Trout was on the Dodgers his WAR would not be as high cause they would still Win. If Bellinger was on the Angels his WAR would be higher cause he would be more valuable. When a overall team his better players it bring the value of the best player on the team down when it comes to wins over replacements. Wins over replacements is an assumption of what it would be not fact. Could a team still win games and a player come up and play better then the player it replaced which then drives that players WAR down is this correct? This players win over replacement is plus 5 meaning that how many wins that player gives his team if he misses games or has to be replace yes or no?
What? No. Replacement level is replacement level. It doesn't matter how good or bad your team is. Putting Trout on a better team with the same stats doesn't suddenly make him a worse player. What sense does that make?
He would not have the same stats, To my point his WAR would be different, Not saying he would be a worst player but his WAR could be lower or higher was the question.
Huh?! Why would he not have the same stats? You didn't establish that in your scenario.
Even if he had the same stats his value would not be the same when it comes to win over replacement?
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
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Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
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Here is an article
Here is part of that article
Stop the WAR?
Given how frequently it pops up in sabermetric discussions, WAR might sound like the pinnacle of sabermetrics. But no stat is perfect, and WAR is far from it.
The "godfather of Sabermetrics" Bill James wrote about his principal gripe with WAR, discussing the MVP race between Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge:
“Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve. Why? Because he didn’t do nearly as much to win games for his team as Altuve did. It is NOT close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis — not as bad as the 1974 statistical analysis, I grant, but flawed nonetheless. It is based essentially on a misleading statistic, which is WAR. Baseball-Reference WAR shows the little guy at 8.3, and the big guy at 8.1.”James’ argument represents the principal criticism of WAR — WAR is context neutral. If a player recorded only one single per game for 162 games, but that one single knocked in the game-winning run every game,WAR would credit that player with exactly as much value as a player who did the same thing but his team lost every game.
As a result, it would seem as though WAR is undervaluing the first player, and overvaluing the second player. Judge consistently performed poorly in high-leverage situations: he recorded the worst Clutch score of any player in 2017 per FanGraphs, despite leading the MLB in fWAR.
But in the words of Bertrand Russell, “WAR does not determine who is right…” so don’t think that WAR is the be all end all to every statistical discussion.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
No it is actually common sense and fact you will never know who was actually better unless they played at the same time with the same rules, in the same stadiums, with the same baseball, against the same players. No formula can ever prove that 100 percent.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
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@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
No it is actually common sense and fact you will never know who was actually better unless they played at the same time with the same rules, in the same stadiums, with the same baseball, against the same players. No formula can ever prove that 100 percent.
Keep attacking those strawman arguments.
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@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Morgan is better cause he stayed healthy. Tell me would have Morgan been as good if he played in the same ERA as Griffey? Would have Griffey been as good or better if he played in the ERA that Morgan played in, What would be Griffey WAR if he played in Morgan's time and vice versa.
Impossible to answer because it would be an opinion and no formula can tell you who would have been better.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
No it is actually common sense and fact you will never know who was actually better unless they played at the same time with the same rules, in the same stadiums, with the same baseball, against the same players. No formula can ever prove that 100 percent.
Keep attacking those strawman arguments.
I will
Here is an article
Here is part of that article
Stop the WAR?
Given how frequently it pops up in sabermetric discussions, WAR might sound like the pinnacle of sabermetrics. But no stat is perfect, and WAR is far from it.
The "godfather of Sabermetrics" Bill James wrote about his principal gripe with WAR, discussing the MVP race between Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge:
“Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve. Why? Because he didn’t do nearly as much to win games for his team as Altuve did. It is NOT close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis — not as bad as the 1974 statistical analysis, I grant, but flawed nonetheless. It is based essentially on a misleading statistic, which is WAR. Baseball-Reference WAR shows the little guy at 8.3, and the big guy at 8.1.”
James’ argument represents the principal criticism of WAR — WAR is context neutral. If a player recorded only one single per game for 162 games, but that one single knocked in the game-winning run every game,WAR would credit that player with exactly as much value as a player who did the same thing but his team lost every game.
As a result, it would seem as though WAR is undervaluing the first player, and overvaluing the second player. Judge consistently performed poorly in high-leverage situations: he recorded the worst Clutch score of any player in 2017 per FanGraphs, despite leading the MLB in fWAR.
But in the words of Bertrand Russell, “WAR does not determine who is right…” so don’t think that WAR is the be all end all to every statistical discussion.
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@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
