Put away your tin foil hats!
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550 plus 500 is not 1,000
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@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.
I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.
Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too
That is why when I opened up 600 standard show packs on the first day I pulled 20 diamonds. Now that comes out to 1:30 which is actually better than the odds put on the packs. Now other people open up 600 packs they may pull less. However still end the end each pack opening is an independent event and the concept of "independent events" in statistics and theory of probability plays larger, especially when people try to apply odds to every fifty packs they open over a long period of time. As people pull packs in rare cases and over an extended period of time, the law of averages diminishes severely.
You would think the more pulled the closer to average it would get right? As hot and cold streaks would not swing the percentages as much.
Also, it would seem that as you pulled more packs if it got further away from the probability number, as any original hot or cold streaks would become less impactful, then whatever that pattern would be would continue the more and more data that you got.
I don’t know I am not an expert in statistics though. Just seems logical.
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@t-rox_09_mlbts said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
550 plus 500 is not 1,000
math is hard for some people
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We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.
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@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.
I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.
Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too
Rosencrantz and Guildenstern send their regards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOwLEVQGbrM -
@red_ted_is_back said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.
I saw a youtuber earlier pulled two diamonds in one pack. This shows it is not every 50 packs to the community. I pulled diamonds in back-to-back-to-back packs also makes that not true as well.
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Best way I can put it is get a die that goes to 50 and roll it 50 times and see how many times it lands on 50 for each card in the pack.
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If you controlled thr levers that earned you money you'd play w them and tell nobody while the odds never changed stfu
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@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.
I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.
Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too
That is why when I opened up 600 standard show packs on the first day I pulled 20 diamonds. Now that comes out to 1:30 which is actually better than the odds put on the packs. Now other people open up 600 packs they may pull less. However still end the end each pack opening is an independent event and the concept of "independent events" in statistics and theory of probability plays larger, especially when people try to apply odds to every fifty packs they open over a long period of time. As people pull packs in rare cases and over an extended period of time, the law of averages diminishes severely.
You would think the more pulled the closer to average it would get right? As hot and cold streaks would not swing the percentages as much.
Also, it would seem that as you pulled more packs if it got further away from the probability number, as any original hot or cold streaks would become less impactful, then whatever that pattern would be would continue the more and more data that you got.
I don’t know I am not an expert in statistics though. Just seems logical.
I opened well over 1000 headliners in 19 and came within .03% of the 1 in 10.
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@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@red_ted_is_back said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.
I saw a youtuber earlier pulled two diamonds in one pack. This shows it is not every 50 packs to the community. I pulled diamonds in back-to-back-to-back packs also makes that not true as well.
Good point; but they could also pre-allocate a set number of cards to every 1000 packs though just to make it transparent for auditors if it came to that. Sounds far fetched and probably completely wrong however what I’m getting at is that none of us here know and never will.
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Dude starts a thread, angry at people that don't understand basic math and statistical averages. Proceeds to state that 550+500=1000.
I love these forums.
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@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
@red_ted_is_back said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.
I saw a youtuber earlier pulled two diamonds in one pack. This shows it is not every 50 packs to the community. I pulled diamonds in back-to-back-to-back packs also makes that not true as well.
Just wanted to add (see my previous reply), the back to back to back could be determined by when cards are allocated: purchase, opening… also others may be purchasing or opening at the exact same time… etc
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@foxfire1545_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:
Best way I can put it is get a die that goes to 50 and roll it 50 times and see how many times it lands on 50 for each card in the pack.
Although I don’t believe each card in a standard pack has the same odds. The first three cards can be anything (and are often commons) whereas the final card has to be bronze or better, and that’s probably where 95% of my diamond pulls happened over all the years, special packs notwithstanding.
Are the odds 1:50 for a diamond player card, though, or just a diamond? Does a retro uniform count as part of fulfilling the 1:50?
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