My packs tracker.
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I own a huge amount of packs. Have tons of cards and collections done and don’t care about the stubs so I’m gonna track them here for fun. If I went back a couple of thousand packs it would look bad. But in fairness I had a lot of big pack luck at the beginning of the year so I will start from today. We tend to remember the bad and not the good so this will be a food experiment for me to see.
******Running total:
Packs 4268
Diamonds 76
Ratio 1:56BIAH 4 out of 127
This is updated through May 29th. No reason to keep adding it in. The packs are 100% a scam value wise.
Cost 4.697
Est value 4.144
Est profit -553k
Est ROI -12%****Sunday - May 23
1 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Freddie Freeman and Trea turner)
1 50 bundle - no diamonds
1 20 bundle - no diamond
15 loose packs - no diamond
1 - 50 bundle - no diamond
1 - 50bundle - 1 diamond(Aroldis Chapman)
1 a 50 bundle - 1 diamond (Machado)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond (judge)
1- 50 bundle - 1 diamond (kershaw)
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds (Strasburg, Yelich)
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1-50 bundle - 0 diamondsTotal packs pulled for the day - 585 - diamonds pulled 8 = 1:73. Costs 877,500 stubs. Diamonds value 171k. Total pack value giving all non diamonds value of 150(generous as it gives each bundle half value right at the start but I think a fair enough estimate) = 565k. Total loss estimate 307,500 for an estimated 36% loss.
Monday May 24th
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1- 50 bundle - 1 diamond (Bryce Harper)
1 a 50 bundle - 0 diamonds (also 15 biah no diamonds)
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond (Devin William) biah 0-17
1- 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Arenado and soto)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond (yu darvish)
1 - 50 bundle - 4 diamonds(Hendricks, Verlander, Yates, strasburg) pack 20 biah - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds (Tim Salmon, Kershaw, Buehler)
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(buehler and woodruff)Total packs pulled for day 500. Total diamonds 14 =1:36. Cost 750k. Diamonds value 226k. Pack value total 561k. Profit -189k. ROI -25%
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the amount of packs opened and only 22 diamonds is mind blowing, it needs to be changed slightly in my opinion.
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Tuesday may 25th
1- 50 bundle - 3 diamonds(Bregman, Nola, Verlander)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 Diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 Diamond(Judge)
1 -50 bundle - 1 Diamond(Machado)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Jose Ramirez and Verlander) biah now 0-27
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamondsTotal packs : 320
Total diamond : 7
Ratio : 1:45
Total cost 480k
Total value : 385k
Profit : -95k
ROI : -20% -
Thats ridiculous. More people need to wake up the scam that this is. It is subtle dirty and people should be 1000000 percent against this.
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Wednesday May 26
1 -50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 3 Diamonds(judge, Tatis and Eddie Mathews)
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Scherzer and Trout)
1 single - no diamond
1 - biah no diamond(0-32)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond (Hader)
1 - 50 bundle - no diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - no diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds (Bellinger and Abrams)
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Matthews and Bieber)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(gerritt cole)
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(chapman and bogaerts)Packs ran pretty hot today. Needed it for sure. Will update OP tomorrow with last 2 days ROI. Might even be at a profit thanks to Trout but not sure. Crazy I had to pull him for a chance at that. Inexplicably BIAH is in a 0-39 stretch.
Packs : 501
Diamonds : 13
Ratio : 1:26
Cost : 751,500
Value : 1.38m
Profit : 556k
Roi: +74% -
This is a pretty interesting thread. Not sure what to make of it yet but thanks for putting this all together.
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Thursday May 27th
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds - (Yates and Bellinger)Packs : 50
Diamonds :2
Ratio: 1:25
Cost 75k
Value : 179,130
Profit: +104k
Roi +138% -
Friday May 28th
1 - 50 bundle - no diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(wainwright)
1 - 50 bundle - no diamond
1- 50 bundle - no diamond
1 - 50 bundle - no diamond
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(judge and story)
1 - 50 bundle - no diamondBiah now at 0-47
Will update ROI later. Been slacking. I’m sure today gonna wash out 2 days of the biggest diamonds in the Snap of a finger.
Packs : 350
Diamonds : 3
Ratio : 1:117
Cost : 525k
Value : 307k
Profit : -218k
Roi: -42%Part 2 for the day
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(soto)
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds(Devin Williams, Scherzer and Hendricks)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(soto)
1- 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Verlander)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Jose Ramirez)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
7 loose packs - 0 diamonds
Biah 0-53 - at this point this pack is a parody of probabilities.Packs 327
Diamonds 7
Ratio : 1:47
Cost 490,500
Value 347k
Profit -143k
Roi : -29% -
@moellers_xbl said in My packs tracker.:
This is a pretty interesting thread. Not sure what to make of it yet but thanks for putting this all together.
Yea it’s really just tracking. Biggest surprises to me is that they are actually hanging around the 1:50 mark, you basically better pull trout fast and stop or you’ll probably lose(the losses are way more devastating than the profits), they definitely nerf and juice packs and biah pack odds are a straight lie. I am going to be interested after pulling trout and several big diamonds in a short span surrounded by 2 big loss runs. But it’s just something to do. Also I’m just estimating the price of the fodder so not an exact science.
Oh and it’s a lot of work selling all this stuff hahaha.
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Thank you very much for this thread. It is very informative when trying to understand the reality of your odds before making a decision. I also think that there is an off switch on diamonds in the BIAH packs.
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Saturday May 29th
59 TA packs - 0 diamonds(won’t be counted towards value but will for ratio. Same odds)
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Chapman)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds(Devin Williams and 2 machado-in back to back packs lol$
1 - 20 bundle - 0’diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds - only 1 gold in this one
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 20 bundle - 1 diamond(bregman)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond (realmuto)Biah tracker 1- 63 pack 58 pulled a diamond(darvish)
Packs 549
Diamonds 6
Ratio : 1:92
Cost: 735k
Value : 420k
Profit : - 315k
Roi: -43% -
10 TA packs - 1 diamond(Posey)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 50 bundle - 0 diamond
1 - 20 bundle - 2 diamonds(Chapman and Olsen)
1 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(realmuto and buxton)
1 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Devin Williams)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
4 biah - 0 diamonds.Biah now 1 out of 71
I will update OP tomorrow. I might be tapped out lol. They may have finally got me to where I can’t open a lot of packs after this 3 day run and trading in a bunch of commons on TA program. We will see.
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BIAH probabilities
P(x = 0) + P(x =1)
(0.9)^71 +71(0.9^70)(0.1)
0.000564 + 0.00445 = 0.0050
It is very unlikely that would only get 1 diamond in 71 BIAH packs.
You’ve got a decent argument to make on BIAH not being 10%.
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Z = (0.0189 - 0.2) / Sqrt(.02* .98/3182)
=-.0011 /. 0.002482
= -0.46
This gives about a 33% chance of getting 60 or fewer diamonds in 6182 regular packs at 2% probability.
So, this would fall into a very common outcome. No reason to believe 2% is off.
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Monday May 31
18 TA packs - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Chapman)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
4 lose packs - 0 diamonds
7 loose packs - 0 diamonds
15 TA packs - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(Mookie betts)
1 - 50 bundle - 3 diamonds (Jose Ramirez and 2 burnes)lol at pulling 3 diamonds and losing
6 loose packs - 0 diamonds
10 TA - 0 diamondsBiah - 3 out of 96
Pulled another diamond out of biah but had big drop from TA -
@mathman5072_psn said in My packs tracker.:
Z = (0.0189 - 0.2) / Sqrt(.02* .98/3182)
=-.0011 /. 0.002482
= -0.46
This gives about a 33% chance of getting 60 or fewer diamonds in 6182 regular packs at 2% probability.
So, this would fall into a very common outcome. No reason to believe 2% is off.
Yea I said I was kind of surprised they were within the realm of the 2%. I would be interested to see how long that sustained. But losing stubs at the clip I am it’s not going to be possible much longer.
And the biah, man I wish I could go back all year and get the numbers. Those are so far off it’s crazy. I did pull another so 2 out of 80. So that will close it to a more reasonable. Doesn’t make any sense either because the pack values are so low they could be at 1:15 and if they’re low diamonds the packs are still loss after loss. So doesn’t make sense why they aren’t producing at that rate.
Obviously the number 1 thing to take from this is at this point of the year moving forward packs will just be a stubs sink hole and nobody should touch them. But if nobody touches them prices will skyrocket then they would be worth pulling. It’s a paradox lol.
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2 out of 79 brings your probability up to .0116 or 1.2%. So, you’re getting into the realm of unlikely, but possible.
Keep posting data. This is fun.
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Tuesday June 1st
Just some free ones.
17 loose packs - 0 diamonds
35 TA packs - 0 diamonds
3 headliner packs - 1 diamonds
24 BiAh packs - 1 diamond1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 1 diamond(mookie betts)
1 - 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 diamonds(Bieber and Judge)Biah counter 4 out of 125
Will update OP with odds from last couple days shortly. Not going to track value anymore as it’s obviously a scam or whatever you want to call a guaranteed no matter what where y’all come from. We can cal it “gambling” if you want.
Just going to track ratios.
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Wednesday June 2nd
1 - 10 bundle - 0 diamonds
1- 50 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 50 bundle - 2 damonds(muncy, buxton)
1 - 20 bundle - 0 diamonds
1 - 10 bundle - 0 diamonds
2 loose packs - 0 diamondsBiah tracker 4 out of 127
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Interesting to see how it is getting further and further from the stated probabilities. As I said in another post if that pattern continues then logic would tell us having more data would just continue to move it away from that number. It’s pretty interesting seeing how bad the packs value are and how many of the diamonds are little 5k diamonds that the system doesn’t keep up with odds. After losing a couple of million it’s going to be hard to keep it up but I will try. To be honest after doing this For a while and seeing this stuff it’s reached the point again were its hard to even stomach logging on the game and supporting these guys. But we will see where it goes.
