@eatyum said in The Honus Effect - The current status of the market:
So for those of you that don’t know, I am obsessed with the market, I love observing trends, seeing how content affects the marketplace etc.
I’ve been tracking the gradual rise in the marketplace since the last time there was a flash sale. Prices have risen steadily since around 7/3. They aren’t quite at the levels seen in late June, (with a few notable exceptions like the PS Damon being higher than late June). but they are starting to get close.
Even on cards that are quote “unusable” at this stage. For example, the 95 Awards series Jason Heyward, he isn’t really seen anymore on teams besides all-time ones. On 7/03 he bottomed out at below 9k. As of 7/14 he is above 15k if you were to buy him without placing an order.
So why are we seeing all these cards rise when they clearly aren’t being used for ranked anymore? The impending Honus collection has been messing with the market for a while. Remember last year when it was dropped out of the blue and all those golds shot up in price? Well, some of the earlier golds are already at high levels, no one is buying 83 PS Johnny Damon at 15k because they want to use him, they fear he will shoot up more when the collection drops.
I track my sellable inventory on a day to day basis as a hobby. It helps me look at the market as a whole. I want to use it as an example here. Now I want to note LS prices are not considered, I’m simply looking at flashback and legend prices.
As of 7/10, I had roughly 2.6m worth of cards I can sell (after-tax)
When I added it up last night (7/13), it was at 3.24m (after-tax). Now, I had to subtract newly acquired inventory which would affect the numbers, I had bought 192k worth of cards. That leaves the increase at 454,000 or 17.45%. In the period of three days, the market based on the cards I have rose by that much (I am mostly just missing all the BR cards at this point + a few headliners that I’m waiting to buy until prices subside).
So where am I going with all this? Well, remember how gold prices continued rising when TA3 approached only to tank hard when it was released? I think we are heading towards that same cliff here. I think prices may actually drop on most cards if and when the Honus thing gets released, we won’t see the crazy spikes we saw in 2019.
Now that theory is based on it being Honus or a similar type player. And if there are any flash sales beforehand, it would obviously drop prices too.
Of course, if something crazy were to drop, like a Barry Bonds, I would expect prices to rise even further. But I think that’s pretty unlikely.
For those of you who got this far, thanks for listening to my thoughts, do you think my summarizations are incorrect, do you have any theories on the future of the market? I would love to hear different thoughts on this subject.
Since you have spent way more time on this than me. I am the big 5 NL players away from Mantle, I have enough for all of them but don't feel like spending 120K+ on each of them. Any idea when they will fall back down to the 90-100k mark?
