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Teoscar Hernandez edged out Matt Olson in a 120AB practice mode final run-off against Kluber and Paxton/Chapman.

Hernandez had 252 total bases on 80 hits. Olson had 242 total bases, 76 hits.

Method
I created a practice mode team of all CAPs and gave them each a different "meta" swing. I've "tested" about 40 such hitters thus far.

I gave them 10 at-bats apiece against a meta righty and meta lefty, then measured comparable total bases and hits. If they seemed like absolute junk in the first go, I went ahead and eliminated them. While still not a sufficient sample size, guys like Hernandez, Olson, (and to a lesser extent) O'Hearn, and Pete Alonso were markedly better than the guys I eliminated quickly.

Once I eliminated a player's swing, I'd add a different meta-swing to the CAP and then I'd continue getting more ABs with the front-runners -- until a gap in outcome became noticeable enough to once again make some cuts. (Since I am looking for one dominant player-swing, I am not interested in finding out how players rank once it seems they aren't going to be the winner.)

This is how I ended up with Hernandez and Olson in a run-off.

And of the swings I've tested so far, I do feel they were distinctively better for me.

Who Cares?

1. I'm sharing in case the Hernandez swing turns out helpful for you as well.

2. And also to welcome feedback on improving the testing approach.

3. And also to welcome suggestions on who you think could give Hernandez a run for his money.

More (Potentially Wrong/Useless, In This Case) Info
Another thing I'm working on is A/B testing different swing adjustments to Hernandez's core swing in order to determine what individual mechanic elements may account for "glitchiness".

One interesting observation so far, is that there seems to be an extremely high percentage of "glitchy" stances with NARROW feet spacing prior to their stride. It also seems like having a closed-ish stance is better than open.

That's about it for now.

tldr;
Last time I was awake for 3 days, I opened 10,000 packs. This time, I took 1000 practice mode ABs.

Insomnia (and adderall) is a helluva drug.

Would you consider the possibility Maddux's stats had more to do with your opponent being 24-131 and batting .144?

I never complain about the show, or video games. But you're right. This is a stupid, lingering design oversight on their part. I'm gonna numerically ramble.

1. Leads don't have to be this binary, step/no-step concept. Give more control over leads.

2. Expand the attributes to include quickness/agility factors for base-runners and pick-off factors for pitchers.

3. Then if someone's getting a 13-foot lead with Pujols, it's simple. The pitcher throws over, it's 100% out.

4. An 11-foot lead with Rickey Henderson? You get picked off 2% of the time, or something like that.

5. Given the above adjustments, make excessive throw-overs punishable by both taxing the pitcher's arm and hurting the defensive rating marginally.

6. The defensive penalty could also be tied to the heat factor.

7. Give us a timing mechanism to actually control our jumps if human pitchers aren't controlling the run game properly. Even Pujols steals when you don't pay attention to him, or become so predictable he can get a 20 foot jump.

8. Combined with the possibility of getting a jump, make humans responsible for getting their player back to the bag.

9. OTHERWISE, don't let anyone increase their lead. This would be stupid, but less stupid than the current inadequate design.

10. And if you, given the stupidity of the design decisions in this case, are a baserunner and you take the extra step -- even when the pitcher throws over to indicate he's paying attention. Then no we can't really do anything about it right now. But it says a lot about you as a person. And that's fine. I'm not gonna step off 1000 times like I used to. I'm just gonna accept that your ego is fragile enough to maximize win-rate at the expense of poor game design. That kind of fragility carries over into other areas of your life. Which cyclically reinforces your need to win at base-stealing in order to compensate for the unconscious emptiness increasingly consuming the rest of your life. We see you. It's cool. Take the step.

What's weird is that there are unregulated casinos in our video games.

But if you're gonna let them build a casino, don't be surprised when they track what casinos track.

I played first base from age 6 through college, have a fairly photographic memory, and can't think of a single time I was ever holding a runner, grabbed a quick line drive and swipe-tagged the guy diving back into first base.

It's not an impossible scenario in real life, but it happens to me in the Show like once every 3 games. Is this the new line drive off the pitcher's face for an easy out at first?

Below is a set of facts which has me asking the question: Are packs temporarily profitable, or am I on an insane lucky streak?

(If we had analytics on the 6200 packs I've opened since the one pictured here...

https://imgur.com/slP7Gh0

...then we'd know the answer. But a) they don't give us analytics, and b) I don't have time to wade through 250 pages of pack openings to figure out what's actually happening.)

So here are the facts set out in the most concise way I can think to share them.

1. I'm an insomniac who has opened 6200 packs since the last time I slept, starting at the time in the above photo.

2. I had roughly 600,000 stubs when I started. My current stub count is 1,725,000 (with another couple hundred thousand in cards lying around) as pictured here:

https://imgur.com/u7Dn6YG

3. I, as always, spent $0.

4. I didn't JUST open packs. I also completed the TAs in that time, selling all but maybe 5 of the cards. That's a lot of stubs.*

BUT, given the conventional wisdom about pack profitability, I should be SO flat broke right now, right? To my knowledge, you're not supposed to be able to open 6200 packs without not only having to dip into your actual wallet, but actually making well over a million stubs in the process.

So maybe packs are profitable right now, IF you plow almost everything you don't sell into Team Affinities.

Or maybe I've wasted a lifetime worth of luck on a few days of fake baseball cards.

@thehomiemiike said in 60hours: 6200 packs opened, $0 spent, 1.3million more stubs... How/Why?:

Bro same here I think it’s luck though.. but I’ve been getting a TON of good pulls I’ve been opening 300 packs a day since sale I have 500k and my team is stacked and I just pulled two degroms

It definitely could be just a [censored]-ton of luck.

You'd think 6200 freaking visits to the slot machine would begin to show the house's advantage, though. Maybe it's still not a big enough sample size? Do I need to do 10,000 freaking packs?

@BigBellZ7096 said in Stay the course. SDS has your back.:

With the new Headliner card being from my favorite team, The Boston Red Sox, I purchased all 5 packs. Low and behold I struck JD on my second pack. Followed that with a Diamond Chris sale. I open my fourth pack and the 4th card lands blue. [Insert Ric Flair WOOOOO]
Reveal reads award series, AL, right field. Frikin JD again. I give my best Jerry McGuire “SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!” & Tiger Woods fist pump and continue to have a great start on the 6th inning.

Morale of the anecdote is for you people who struggle with packs. I’ve been there and I know it sucks. But keep grinding and purchasing packs when you can. SDS will reward your hard work.

This is not the moral of the story. Are you being facetious?

The moral of the story is you got lucky over a short sample size which will definitely happen. But buying any substantial quantity of packs AT FULL PRICE is a guaranteed losing proposition.

Last night, I set out to prove this once and for all. Over around 750 packs, I pulled Cole, Trout, Bellinger, and 97Bryant -- among the normal ton of other devalued diamonds. And I'm pretty sure I did not break even.

The moral of your story is take the free packs and you will eventually get lucky a few times, which is nice. But absolutely don't turn around and use those stubs to buy packs, because you will give away like 50% of your stubs per pop.

Also, not calling you out or anything. Just in the mood to post and yours was top. Congrats on the stash.

@notoriousHEB said in Somewhat Scientific CAP Swing Testing (T. Hernandez winning):

@GrinCuzIWIN said in Somewhat Scientific CAP Swing Testing (T. Hernandez winning):

@notoriousHEB said in Somewhat Scientific CAP Swing Testing (T. Hernandez winning):

You've got issues. Seek help before you end up on the evening news

Wtf is your problem? You come here just for attention? Mommy still loves you.

I find this thread pretty awesome. Thank you Josh. I enjoyed the read.

Popping pills and staying up 3 straight days. I'm not the one with a problem. He needs help.

I almost didn't catch this post after reading the first one. To be clear, the adderall is prescribed. You get such a prescription from... [wait for it]

Seeking help.

Thanks for your concern.

Yes.

Same.

Hundreds and hundreds of sell orders gone -- active orders empty and the items gone from my inventory. I've contacted support. This would be a huge loss.

@GiantsXLII said in Sitting 9-0 on BR right now...:

I got a monitor and my game has hit a new level. I have never been this far down the reward path in BR before.

What's my strategy from here? Play early AM in hopes of a weaker match? Kind of a stitch move, but I want to win this thing!

Any tips? This is giving me heart palps!

My 12 win reward is showing Max. I would love his card at a minimum to go towards The Mick.

Chronic insomniac here. Several of my past 12-0 runs were no-doubt aided by the early morning games.

Just be aware that you're not the only one thinking this way and there are definitely sharks in the water at these hours. You probably increase your chances of getting some REALLY lucky matchups in the early morning hours. But I think you might also have a slightly higher chance of bumping into to the junkiest of all junkies.

But it goes without saying if that bar goes all the way down to 0-2000, there are way more players in the 1500-1700 range you're likely to face. And the only time the bar's going down that low is in the middle of the night.

Yes.

He violated an ethical principle. That it's even a debate reflects our culture's general ignorance about any ethical considerations, much less bioethics.

I think it'd be weirder if a business wasn't tracking analytics on one of their primary money-making methods.

If it makes you feel any better, this individual went 2 for 8 in his entire Junior year of high school baseball. And his Senior season was cancelled by COVID.

He's also the worst scammer ever for using his actual name in his PSN.

@lucas8181 said in Banks Review?:

Got lucky and pulled Elite tier. Banks is absolutely an end game card at SS. Take your time, save the stubs, get him. You don't need him today, but you'll need him before the end of the year.

I got him a couple of hours ago after I read like the first 4 comments.

Yes to the first part. Not really losing interest in the game, overall though.

I had a hunch it would be a more fun way to get all those silvers and bronzes I was gonna buy to speed through some of the team affinities.

Overall, I was willing to go broke while unlocking some TA sets as a worst case scenario, but that didn't happen.

@mwolve87 said in I opened 2750 packs today, apparently.:

Did you have to spend any real money $ to obtain all the stubs needed for these packs, or were you able to earn them within the game?

My stubs come from playing the game and, less often, obsessively flipping massive volumes of silver cards and/or gold equipment.

If my math is right, 2750 packs would cost like $1400 bucks with the current discount. I can think of a lot better ways to blow that kind of cash.

Is there any method to avoid your opponent prolonging the game indefinitely (or at least long AF) without the mercy rule?

@Rabid55Wolverine said in Are people ok with the mercy rule ?:

Only reason people wouldnt want the mercy rule is to pad your stats and help stroke ego. If you are mashing a team, there should be a mercy rule. That way the team getting destroyed can also have whatever rewards there are for when the game ends instead of getting a quit or disconnect

I personally wouldn't mind some personal stat padding and ego stroking. I like stroking of most kinds, as a matter of fact.

But what I don't want is to open a door for someone to be able to make me spend an entire day playing them. It only takes 1. And if no mercy rule existed, there'd be more than 1. Especially at the earliest levels where players are less invested in their records or stats.

End game Reds innings card.