Predicting the market
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I think a lot of people would have a better experience with this game if they learned to predict the market. I feel like there are lots of people who are good at it - but they dont post here, or on many other forums, because they dont want to share the secrets.
By and large, SDS does the same content stuff year after year - and the market reacts in similar ways. For example...
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Flash sales cause many cards to go way down in value - most of those cards go back up two days later (especially cards that are not in high supply)
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Before the weekend classic, there's a weird dip in card values. Many go right back up after.
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If content is announced and people anticipate something will be needed for it - you can often sell the needed cards two hours before the program comes out. People will FOMO buy them, usually way over value.
There's a lot of more subtle things too - that people should share. Its not hard to guess right and make a ton of stubs - the risk is pretty low too...usually if you're wrong, you can just sell back for about the same price (just dont invest in something that will plummet)
Its easy to make mistakes, but that's why people should share strategies. Like, I foolishly collected the first inning bosses - I should've realized those early inning bosses go way up in value when people realize they can't get them anymore. Could've sold Murakami and Acuna (two useless cards at this point) for close to 150k at one point.
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You realize the minute you share something it is cooked. So yeah, I get the spirit of goodwill but you only influence the market in a negative fashion. That’s why most of us keep our info to ourselves or share it with a select group of like minded folks.
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Also, the more nefarious among us can also use this to profit off of the lemmings.
And before anyone accuses me of being a whatever, there are many people on here I have seen struggling for stubs and I have dm’d them sound and sure investments to help them out. I won’t name a single name as that is their choice to share. But publicly posting good buys is a sure fire way to screw it all up.
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@LHUBison58_XBL I understand to a point - but the vast majority of Show players dont read these boards or watch good content creators that talk about the game (there are a few that give good advice).
So, here's an example - when there's an announcement about some content coming in the game in 10 days, the market doesn't react right away. Its not like the real stock market, where any shred of info causes immediate reaction. People wait until like 2 or 3 days before, and then start reacting. That gives you lots of time to invest and play the market early.
So, I dont think you're really cooking anything by putting most stuff out there - most people dont pay attention anyway
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I’ve been heavily investing in this game for three years. From my experience what you are asking is not a good idea.
But what do I know? My 25 account still has max stubs and a stockpile of Ohtani cards I used to stash excess stubs away. Go ahead and start posting your tips publicly, but don’t buy anything prior to posting and see what happens to them.
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@LHUBison58_XBL I try to help. I’ve been begging people to go after Ohtani and the gatekeepers first for years. I got Ohtani for 530k. Timing is everything in this market.
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@LHUBison58_XBL Noted. I mean, it could even be super simple tips like "dont ever buy packs."
I wish buying packs made sense - like, if you had a 45 percent chance to come out ahead buying packs, I'd tell people "go for it, gambling is fun." But, yo - not even the most degenerate Vegas gambler would buy packs in this game - the odds are just soooo bad.
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There used to be a guy that would post roster update predictions that were like 90% accurate. He did YouTube videos that were like an hour long and broke it all down further. He basically had solved their algorithm.
When he’d post on here to be helpful people would bash him every time for trying to manipulate cards he had. Literally millions of free stubs and people not only ignored him but hated on his threads like every thread. You could spend hours and hours giving your info on here and nothing will happen to it. You can give every ingredient for the recipe and people won’t cook a single thing.
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@GoozeFn_PSN I make general statements to folks, and sharing generalities is good. But had I told everyone to buy up Spencer Strider’s card prior to the collection people would have driven the price up and looked to dump him right after the collection, which would have inflated the supply and killed the price. Instead I kept that tidbit to myself and a small group of other players and we feasted after the collection drop.
The old teach a man to fish proverb fits. So teaching “how” to make investment decisions and “when” to execute them is fine. Handing out fish does nothing for people and hurts us all.
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@DeleteyourTTVBTW_MLBTS He still exists.
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@rubicante23_PSN But even that advice is faulty. I made over 150k off cityscapes 3 card packs. You just need to know what works and look at what the market is doing and bail early instead of late.
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Makes me wonder. Did SDS have a hand in this bashing to run the guy off of here? Having alt accounts to post? Based on the vitriol we’ve seen this game cycle I don’t doubt anything.
I know for a fact that they have moles in TheShow groups that are on Discord. And I am not talking about the script groups. They don’t like people figuring out how to make stubs consistently. They don’t say that, but their actions show you what they think.
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@LHUBison58_XBL I’ve never withheld anything like that in fear because most people don’t take the advice anyways.
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@GoozeFn_PSN I’ve seen it the other way. And frankly, the way people treated me over somethings earlier this year I don’t care to hand out stubs to the masses.
I will just keep dm’ing the same folks and go from there.
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@LHUBison58_XBL I don’t blame you.
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I will support SDS on one thing - trying to stop people from buying mass quantities of super-low valued cards or equipment just for flipping.
I support a human looking at the market and making a human decision to invest in this one card or that one (which always carries risk). I dont support algorithms and bots and hedging systems that are set up to churn away with no risk. Thats just an inflation-causing machine.
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Yeah, the problem wasn’t the amount of cards. It was the bots, still is the bots, and will continue to be the bots. All the limit has done is take. The bots off of a small quantity of cards and spread them all over the market.
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I don’t mind sharing. You gave me some tips last year. And they all definitely panned out. The one I distinctly remember was to buy as many Seiya Suzukis as possible and then “cash out”. I did and it worked perfectly.
@lhubison58_xbl is a good dude.
