99 Posey Incoming
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This is the cross roads we are at with advanced analytics. Before there were bench marks to hit. 2000 hits-3000 hits. 400-600 hrs. Career .300 hitter. Plus 5 GG.
So what’s more important? And what is the Hall of Fame voters looking for. Counting stats, benchmarks, or WAR. Do they all play in. What weights more?
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
If Posey gets in then Munson should be in
Munson has 40.9 career fWAR, he should not be in the HoF. Posey has 57.6, he absolutely should be in the HoF.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@ericulous1_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I agree with all of you that the Hall shouldn't put so much emphasis on certain benchmark stats that require longevity and focus more on the impact the player had in his time. I think if a player spends much of his career on the disabled list, that is definitely going to impact his chances, but Posey is an interesting case because he is choosing to retire younger than many people anticipated. Based on this last year, it's safe to assume he would have had another 1-3 years of all star quality play.
I do think longevity needs to count for something, but it doesn't have to be the barometer.
Yadi playing so many games at such a demanding position and continuously doing it at a high level is incredibly impressive. There are not many who can withstand that as is evident by the transition to first for Mauer and the shortened career of Posey.
Whoever compared Yadi to Ozzie is right on the money. His ticket to Cooperstown is a shelf full of gold gloves and he is widely regarded as the best or at least top 5. But offensively, Posey and Mauer are far better players.
Recently Andruw Jones got taken off the ballot. So I don’t really know what voters are looking for.
Andruw Jones is still on the ballot, but I don't think he gets enough traction in the next 5 years to get in, which is unfortunate
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
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The fact Posey has a better WAR in 800+ fewer games closes the books
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@hikes83_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
The fact Posey has a better WAR in 800+ fewer games closes the books
The issue is Voter's do not only look at WAR you have to see who else is on the Ballot with Posey. Where is Posey in Career WAR with everyone else who will be on the Ballot.
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@hikes83_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
The fact Posey has a better WAR in 800+ fewer games closes the books
The issue is Voter's do not only look at WAR you have to see who else is on the Ballot with Posey. Where is Posey in Career WAR with everyone else who will be on the Ballot.
Oh I agree with you. Just mainly talking the whole Posey vs Yadi comparison. Should’ve been clearer
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I do not think some of you know the criteria the voters use to Vote it is more than just WAR or FWAR or any other WAR.
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
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@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
You’re acting like longevity is the most important thing, which is just isn’t. It’s brought up more than it really should be, but in the end stats and metrics are what truly matter the most, and they favor Posey very highly. Posey being a top 10 defensive catcher and top 10 in wRC+ among catchers is what will really set him apart, aside from putting up 57.6 fWAR in such a short career.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
You’re acting like longevity is the most important thing, which is just isn’t. It’s brought up more than it really should be, but in the end stats and metrics are what truly matter the most, and they favor Posey very highly. Posey being a top 10 defensive catcher and top 10 in wRC+ among catchers is what will really set him apart, aside from putting up 57.6 fWAR in such a short career.
So you know this to be fact by every single person who has a vote? I am not acting like anything, I did the research and posted it already of the C in the HOF all but 3 from what I found have 17 plus years. That is a fact no acting, The only catcher at 10 years is Roy Campanella, no one else under 13 years as a C is in the HOF. From what I research that is Fact.
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@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@dbarmonstar_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@jogger171717_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@sevisonjn_psn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
Probably a silly question but is he a hall of famer?
So 1-MVP, 3-WS, ROTY, 7x AS. From a award perspective I’d say yes. From a statistical perspective it’s very borderline.
1500 career hits and 158 homeruns isn't going to get it done. I don't think he is a borderline hall of famer although I think he was a very good player. There are some other guys that deserve to be in right now if Posey will get in on what he has done IMO
Being the 8th best catcher of all time by fWAR absolutely will get it done though
But a legit 9 year career will not, If Posey plays longer most likely that fWAR would decrease.
Posey retired after putting up 4.9 fWAR this year. He would’ve kept gaining if he kept playing, and likely would’ve been smart to enough to quit before it got too bad. His career being shorter only makes his fWAR total that much more impressive, as opposed to someone taking 20 years just to get a similar number.
https://baseballegg.com/catcher-war-leaders/
I understand what you are saying but only playing 12 years really only 9 is not in his favor with the voters. This in not the NFL or NBA where everyone gets in. MLB HOF is the hardest to get into IMO. Look at the HOF that got in as Catchers, the Majority have 17 plus years. Piazza had 16, one with 13 and Camp with 10. Munson died in plane crash played 11 years and is not in. If I was voiting, Munson, Mauer, Posey, Molina would all get a vote. You also have to look at who is on the Ballot with them it is not only by position, in Five years who will be on the Ballot with Posey to keep him out or have a better chance of getting in.
The problem with JAWS is that it uses bWAR, not fWAR. Take the same formula using fWAR, and the results will show Posey much more favorably than Munson, Mauer, or Molina.
My point in the Longevity that voters still look at, is what can and probably will keep Posey out. I just posted an article from 2020 pretty much states there is only two Criteria, play for 10 years and been retired for 5 years after that voters can pick and choose on how they vote. There is no standard of metrics or stats that they must use.
You’re acting like longevity is the most important thing, which is just isn’t. It’s brought up more than it really should be, but in the end stats and metrics are what truly matter the most, and they favor Posey very highly. Posey being a top 10 defensive catcher and top 10 in wRC+ among catchers is what will really set him apart, aside from putting up 57.6 fWAR in such a short career.
Also there is nothing written that the voters have to use any type of Criteria they can use what ever criteria they want hence Jeter had one person no vote for him. Voter's vote how ever they choose to vote. longevity seems to matter more than what you think to the voters.
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The HOF seems to love compilers. I don't consider Posey one, but I think he definitely gets in.
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Another fact Catchers make up less than 6 percent of HOF players. That is another thing going against Mauer, Posey and Molina when He gets there.
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I only have 1 thing to say. The BBWAA should have never been given the ability to elect HOF'ers. It should have always been by a retired players committee. And before you say "they can be elected by retired players committee", I mean there should only be one committee, not 4, that do selections.
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I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
I agree, That He can get there, but we will see.
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@quinnymcquinn said in 99 Posey Incoming:
I don’t think 3 catchers get into the hall solely going off of what we’ve already have seen from voters. At least not through the initial hall of fame selection.
Since I brought Mauer up and added him to the mix let me throw another wrench in this clog. What about Salvator Perez? In the prime of his career right now. More HR’s than any of these guys. Defensively considered one of the best playing right now. Tons of Gold Gloves. If he puts up a few more solid years he’ll surpass Yadi in WAR and quite possibly all three.
I know it’s early but what are his chances? He just hit his 10 year mark. Wasn’t a regular starter until a few years into his major league career. So got a late start compared to some of these guys. I think he could easily slide into this conversation as well, in 3or 4 years.
I think Salvy has a chance for sure. Like you said, he'd need to put up another 3-4 really strong years or 5-6 good years. Obviously if he duplicates or comes close to his 2021 campaign twice more it might do the trick. The Gold Gloves, all star appearances and broken home run record are a great start.
