Odds....Math guys please explain them.

SDS

There are copious threads are about how packs suck (which I agree). It always devolves into a thread about not understanding odds. Odds guys please use this thread to give a concise and detailed definition of how SDS odds work.

SDS

Soooo 1:50 might happen. Believe it or not it’s close. I tracked a bunch of packs for it. Check the market spot for it. But out of 50 packs, 1:50 for a sub 10k diamond when maybe 5 packs give you the price back, 20 give you a 50% loss and and 24 give you a 90+% loss is a scam. They shouldn’t be allowed at the current value.

SDS

Every pack gives you a 1:50 odd of getting a diamond. That doesn't mean you'll get a diamond every 50 packs, each pack is separate. Not sure how that is confusing for people.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

Soooo 1:50 might happen. Believe it or not it’s close. I tracked a bunch of packs for it. Check the market spot for it. But out of 50 packs, 1:50 for a sub 10k diamond when maybe 5 packs give you the price back, 20 give you a 50% loss and and 24 give you a 90+% loss is a scam. They shouldn’t be allowed at the current value.

Bro...they are going to eviscerate you.

SDS

In 50 packs you have a 65% chance of at least one diamond.

SDS

@dirtybob007_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

Soooo 1:50 might happen. Believe it or not it’s close. I tracked a bunch of packs for it. Check the market spot for it. But out of 50 packs, 1:50 for a sub 10k diamond when maybe 5 packs give you the price back, 20 give you a 50% loss and and 24 give you a 90+% loss is a scam. They shouldn’t be allowed at the current value.

Bro...they are going to eviscerate you.

Can’t do it. I track it. I’m talking raw numbers. I’m not even talking the probabilities and I say they hang around 1:50. More likely like 1:60. It’s all there in black and white. It doesn’t matter when they’re like 99.99% loss. You literally have to pull trout like 1 every 1500 packs to maybe break even. I tracked it and even pulled trout in the tracking.

SDS

Real simple example.

Let's say a lottery sells a total of 200 tickets with a guarantee that 5 of those tickets will win a prize. They advertise the odds of winning a prize as 1:40.

I buy 40 tickets.

Someone else buys the other 160 tickets.

I win nothing because the other guy has all 5 winning tickets. The advertised odds held up, just not for me.

SDS

Really the only important thing you need to know is that the 1:50 odds are for each individual pack.

Everyone that complains about packs seem to think 1 Diamond every 50 packs instead. But your odds restart 1:50 every pack.

I don’t really know how else to put it lol

SDS

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

The good news is you don’t have to buy packs to get in game currency for cash and if you never go down the rabbit hole you don’t have to worry about it.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will.

For sure, SDS is lying to the Government (which gaming is monitored under), to get your extra stubs, and to risk their entire business model.

That's right friends! Untuchables $20 is worth the cost of the entire business, because he needs to be taken advantage of!

Get real my dude, the federal government has had an eye on this stuff, thinking they're pulling the sheets over your eyes is a joke.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

Yes packs are almost always going to be a loss. It’s like playing a slot machine. You’re really just spending money to play slots because you’re almost guaranteed to lose money. Best advice for anyone would be to NOT buy packs. It is always the worst financial decision you can make with stubs regardless of what card you need.

Some people think… “I only need Trout but I only have 100k stubs… let’s buy packs with that 100k and pull him!” No. Save your stubs and buy whatever player you want off the market.

Also why I don’t gamble unless there’s actually some skill involved like poker.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4,200 packs is still a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of packs that have been opened. If you are so sure that your data is legit to disprove their published odds, go file a complaint and provide your evidence.

SDS

@genopolanco_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

Yes packs are almost always going to be a loss. It’s like playing a slot machine. You’re really just spending money to play slots because you’re almost guaranteed to lose money. Best advice for anyone would be to NOT buy packs. It is always the worst financial decision you can make with stubs regardless of what card you need.

Some people think… “I only need Trout but I only have 100k stubs… let’s buy packs with that 100k and pull him!” No. Save your stubs and buy whatever player you want off the market.

Also why I don’t gamble unless there’s actually some skill involved like poker.

For sure. I play tables in Vegas and win every time I go and did edit my post a bit after to reflect this. Don’t touch them and there’s plenty in this game. Won’t say it still won’t [censored] you off lol but just don’t touch them.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@genopolanco_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

Yes packs are almost always going to be a loss. It’s like playing a slot machine. You’re really just spending money to play slots because you’re almost guaranteed to lose money. Best advice for anyone would be to NOT buy packs. It is always the worst financial decision you can make with stubs regardless of what card you need.

Some people think… “I only need Trout but I only have 100k stubs… let’s buy packs with that 100k and pull him!” No. Save your stubs and buy whatever player you want off the market.

Also why I don’t gamble unless there’s actually some skill involved like poker.

For sure. I play tables in Vegas and win every time I go and did edit my post a bit after to reflect this. Don’t touch them and there’s plenty in this game. Won’t say it still won’t [censored] you off lol but just don’t touch them.

Yep they give out so many packs in this game for free. I haven’t bought a single pack and have still pulled about a dozen diamonds, including Cole.

SDS

@raylewissb47_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4,200 packs is still a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of packs that have been opened. If you are so sure that your data is legit to disprove their published odds, go file a complaint and provide your evidence.

Ive opened more packs than you can imagine. I tracked a week lol. 4200 is enough to show a loss pattern and my theory is the more you pulled the bigger the loss would be until it hit whatever the true pack value is then it would level out.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4200 packs is not even a drop of water in the ocean. If you take very conservative estimates of 150,000 total TS21 users since Day 1 that have collected an average of 250 packs each (free and/or bought) that is 62.5 million packs opened.

Your 4200 packs represent 0.0000672 percent of that total, or in other words is statistically irrelevant.

The 1:50 odds are only needed to be maintained across all packs opened, not each individual user's packs.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@raylewissb47_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4,200 packs is still a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of packs that have been opened. If you are so sure that your data is legit to disprove their published odds, go file a complaint and provide your evidence.

Ive opened more packs than you can imagine. I tracked a week lol. 4200 is enough to show a loss pattern and my theory is the more you pulled the bigger the loss would be until it hit whatever the true pack value is then it would level out.

I’ve pulled way less packs than you and have pulled plenty of diamonds. I guess they were giving your share to me and other players. Like I said, go provide you evidence and let us know what happens.

SDS

@abbyspapa_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4200 packs is not even a drop of water in the ocean. If you take very conservative estimates of 150,000 total TS21 users since Day 1 that have collected an average of 250 packs each (free and/or bought) that is 62.5 million packs opened.

Your 4200 packs represent 0.0000672 percent of that total, or in other words is statistically irrelevant.

The 1:50 odds are only needed to be maintained across all packs opened, not each individual user's packs.

I won’t argue the 1:50. It’s pretty close to that. I’m talking value of packs.

SDS

@abbyspapa_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4200 packs is not even a drop of water in the ocean. If you take very conservative estimates of 150,000 total TS21 users since Day 1 that have collected an average of 250 packs each (free and/or bought) that is 62.5 million packs opened.

Your 4200 packs represent 0.0000672 percent of that total, or in other words is statistically irrelevant.

The 1:50 odds are only needed to be maintained across all packs opened, not each individual user's packs.

But....I only care about me! Give me what I deserve! Whah (on repeat for the duration of the game cycle).

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@abbyspapa_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

@untchable704_psn said in Odds....Math guys please explain them.:

https://forums.theshow.com/topic/36276/my-packs-tracker/24

It’s right here. That is 4200+ packs tracked. If you can read through that and tell me it’s a legit business practice go ahead. I stopped tracking after like 10 days because the results became obvious and stopped tracking value after like 6 days because it became apparent. If that doesn’t make you stop pulling packs nothing will. They are nothing more than a stub sink with the hopes you pull a big card to get a big fraction of what you lost back. I even gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them half value back on all non diamond packs.

4200 packs is not even a drop of water in the ocean. If you take very conservative estimates of 150,000 total TS21 users since Day 1 that have collected an average of 250 packs each (free and/or bought) that is 62.5 million packs opened.

Your 4200 packs represent 0.0000672 percent of that total, or in other words is statistically irrelevant.

The 1:50 odds are only needed to be maintained across all packs opened, not each individual user's packs.

I won’t argue the 1:50. It’s pretty close to that. I’m talking value of packs.

The value of packs has always been poor. You should know that the house always wins. They are out to make money and people that dump their money in packs are their favorite.