Risk Aversion for the MLB Market

Started with 170 Marcus Semien's which I bought for anywhere from 1800-3000.

Played my risk aversion card and sold off 70 for 3900 after tax so if he doesn't get the bump I'm cutting my losses... and if he does still go diamond, I'm rich.

People buying for 4400 means their betting he has 90% chance to go diamond. And although I believe in my investments, you also have to know when to sell, to make sure I'm (a) not empty-handed if he doesn't go diamond and (b) am able to reinvest if his price plunges after not going diamond.

I think there's about a 65% chance he goes diamond (making his value 5,000 quicksell) which means that I shouldn't buy over 3,250 stubs (.6*5000). And that's about in line with what I did, only entering the market at 3100ish, but buying a majority of my supply for much cheaper in the 1800-2500 stubs range.

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

You know there was speculation a few years ago that the guy that made 5 posts a day about Verdugo going gold was one of your alternates. Was that you Kierian? Similar behavior with Semien this week

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

@the_dragon1912 said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

You know there was speculation a few years ago that the guy that made 5 posts a day about Verdugo going gold was one of your alternates. Was that you Kierian? Similar behavior with Semien this week

No, but I did it with DJ LeMahieu a couple of years ago

It's smarter to put in a bunch of buy orders for 1000. If he goes diamond it is unlikely the sell now price exceeds 5556 and new bids cannot drop below 5000.

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

If your want market advice from the 1800s...

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

If your want market advice from the 1800s...

The math works out, unless I believe there is a 90% chance he goes diamond, there's no reason I would want to keep my full supply. If anything, still holding 60% is risky.

Ever wonder why no one ever likes your posts??? Take the hint.

Just bought 77 Gausmans for 5000 and QS before doofus figures out tax.

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

If your want market advice from the 1800s...

The math works out, unless I believe there is a 90% chance he goes diamond, there's no reason I would want to keep my full supply. If anything, still holding 60% is risky.

In other news I bought 222 Glasnows (221 sellable) when he was a silver all for under 1k, most bought between 800-900... He just went diamond and I'm sitting on a quicksell value of 1,105,000... If I had paper hands and sold at 4,000 I would have 795,600 after tax... But instead I'm a millionaire because of hands.

Do your research, stick to your guns.

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

If your want market advice from the 1800s...

The math works out, unless I believe there is a 90% chance he goes diamond, there's no reason I would want to keep my full supply. If anything, still holding 60% is risky.

In other news I bought 222 Glasnows (221 sellable) when he was a silver all for under 1k, most bought between 800-900... He just went diamond and I'm sitting on a quicksell value of 1,105,000... If I had paper hands and sold at 4,000 I would have 795,600 after tax... But instead I'm a millionaire because of hands.

Do your research, stick to your guns.

...I literally just saved almost 150,000 by selling here.

@theblindrhino said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Just bought 77 Gausmans for 5000 and QS before doofus figures out tax.

I love it when they do that, more stubs for me lol

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

If your want market advice from the 1800s...

The math works out, unless I believe there is a 90% chance he goes diamond, there's no reason I would want to keep my full supply. If anything, still holding 60% is risky.

In other news I bought 222 Glasnows (221 sellable) when he was a silver all for under 1k, most bought between 800-900... He just went diamond and I'm sitting on a quicksell value of 1,105,000... If I had paper hands and sold at 4,000 I would have 795,600 after tax... But instead I'm a millionaire because of hands.

Do your research, stick to your guns.

...I literally just saved almost 150,000 by selling here.

How you figure? Because of panic selling within less than an hour of activity? That price will rebound after this initial wave of paper handed get rich quick panic sellers... In two weeks you might have cost yourself 77,000. Do you think he's a diamond player or not?

You're not investing, you're flipping. If you think he's a diamond then you buy the dip right now.

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@kdclemson_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

@notoriousheb_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

Risk aversion is just a fancy name for paper hands.

With 3900 sold for those cards, I'm missing out on a potential 1100 if he goes diamond, but I'm probably saving a potential 2000+ stubs, so you have to realize when it is and isn't worth it. I still whole heartedly believe that he should and is deserving of diamond, which is why having stub capital gives me the freedom to reinvest later.

Didn't JP Morgan have the famous quote, "I made a fortune selling too early."

If your want market advice from the 1800s...

The math works out, unless I believe there is a 90% chance he goes diamond, there's no reason I would want to keep my full supply. If anything, still holding 60% is risky.

In other news I bought 222 Glasnows (221 sellable) when he was a silver all for under 1k, most bought between 800-900... He just went diamond and I'm sitting on a quicksell value of 1,105,000... If I had paper hands and sold at 4,000 I would have 795,600 after tax... But instead I'm a millionaire because of hands.

Do your research, stick to your guns.

...I literally just saved almost 150,000 by selling here.

How you figure? Because of panic selling within less than an hour of activity? That price will rebound after this initial wave of paper handed get rich quick panic sellers... In two weeks you might have cost yourself 77,000. Do you think he's a diamond player or not?

You're not investing, you're flipping. If you think he's a diamond then you buy the dip right now.

I did, I bought the dip back at 2000 to raise the supply back up to 170 and then I sold at around 2600+ after tax down to 0. That in a sense is flipping, but I'd rather have stubs than players in my collection at any given time.

You’re way trying to hard sound to smart.

@charterbus_psn said in Risk Aversion for the MLB Market:

You’re way trying to hard sound to smart.

*trying way
*too
*to sound

lol