Put away your tin foil hats!

SDS

Pack odds (regardless of which type of pack it is) for a diamond pull are not a scam!!!! And, maybe learn a little about statistics before you come up with ignorant conspiracy theories. It doesn't matter how many packs you open, the odds are the same for each pack. Every other pack (before or after) has absolutely no impact on the odds of the pack you are opening.

It is just like odds of flipping a quarter and getting heads or tails. Each flip is 1:2 odds for either a heads or a tails. Each flip of the coin has zero impact on any other flip of the coin. You can have a 1000 people flipping a coin 1000 times, and chances are none of them will actually have flipped 550 heads and 500 tails even the odds were 1:2 for each head and tails.

You can track how many you pulled, but your "statistics" do not have any impact on what the actual odds of the packs are! Each pack itself is randomly generated with the odds stated for the pack!

SDS

I mean, I agree, but is a whole post necessary? You seem very angry over this matter.

SDS

Yes, this post is necessary. No, I am not angry.

SDS

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too

SDS

@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too

Not on packs tho. Because if you track them it doesn’t matter what you pull it’s all independent. By the way my tracking on packs say they run close to 1:50 they just make you lose guaranteed at this point anyway. I guess we could say not a scam but probably the closest you could get to one legally.

Either way we will all have our thoughts. Even people Like OP doesn’t have the raw data to back up what he is saying. And after you get people up to thousands of packs they refuse to believe they are the outlier. Then people join in and they’re all the outliers. Nobody hops in and says they pull diamonds every 10 packs. I guess they are busy rolling in diamonds. Banter is fun though. My packs were stupid hot beginning of the year so it’s what it is to me at this point.

SDS

@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too

That is why when I opened up 600 standard show packs on the first day I pulled 20 diamonds. Now that comes out to 1:30 which is actually better than the odds put on the packs. Now other people open up 600 packs they may pull less. However still end the end each pack opening is an independent event and the concept of "independent events" in statistics and theory of probability plays larger, especially when people try to apply odds to every fifty packs they open over a long period of time. As people pull packs in rare cases and over an extended period of time, the law of averages diminishes severely.

SDS

550 plus 500 is not 1,000

SDS

@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too

That is why when I opened up 600 standard show packs on the first day I pulled 20 diamonds. Now that comes out to 1:30 which is actually better than the odds put on the packs. Now other people open up 600 packs they may pull less. However still end the end each pack opening is an independent event and the concept of "independent events" in statistics and theory of probability plays larger, especially when people try to apply odds to every fifty packs they open over a long period of time. As people pull packs in rare cases and over an extended period of time, the law of averages diminishes severely.

You would think the more pulled the closer to average it would get right? As hot and cold streaks would not swing the percentages as much.

Also, it would seem that as you pulled more packs if it got further away from the probability number, as any original hot or cold streaks would become less impactful, then whatever that pattern would be would continue the more and more data that you got.

I don’t know I am not an expert in statistics though. Just seems logical.

SDS

@t-rox_09_mlbts said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

550 plus 500 is not 1,000

math is hard for some people

SDS

We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.

SDS

@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too

Rosencrantz and Guildenstern send their regards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOwLEVQGbrM

SDS

@red_ted_is_back said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.

I saw a youtuber earlier pulled two diamonds in one pack. This shows it is not every 50 packs to the community. I pulled diamonds in back-to-back-to-back packs also makes that not true as well.

SDS

Best way I can put it is get a die that goes to 50 and roll it 50 times and see how many times it lands on 50 for each card in the pack.

SDS

If you controlled thr levers that earned you money you'd play w them and tell nobody while the odds never changed stfu

SDS

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@hikes83_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@untchable704_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Nobody would get 550 heads and 500 tails if they flipped a coin 1,000 times. Always do love y’all lessons on “statistics” tho.

I’d bet if we were betting on flips and it came up 950 heads and 50 tails you’d be refusing to pay without getting the quarter examined even though each flip was independent.

Well my good man, at some point, the law of averages applies too

That is why when I opened up 600 standard show packs on the first day I pulled 20 diamonds. Now that comes out to 1:30 which is actually better than the odds put on the packs. Now other people open up 600 packs they may pull less. However still end the end each pack opening is an independent event and the concept of "independent events" in statistics and theory of probability plays larger, especially when people try to apply odds to every fifty packs they open over a long period of time. As people pull packs in rare cases and over an extended period of time, the law of averages diminishes severely.

You would think the more pulled the closer to average it would get right? As hot and cold streaks would not swing the percentages as much.

Also, it would seem that as you pulled more packs if it got further away from the probability number, as any original hot or cold streaks would become less impactful, then whatever that pattern would be would continue the more and more data that you got.

I don’t know I am not an expert in statistics though. Just seems logical.

I opened well over 1000 headliners in 19 and came within .03% of the 1 in 10.

SDS

@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@red_ted_is_back said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.

I saw a youtuber earlier pulled two diamonds in one pack. This shows it is not every 50 packs to the community. I pulled diamonds in back-to-back-to-back packs also makes that not true as well.

Good point; but they could also pre-allocate a set number of cards to every 1000 packs though just to make it transparent for auditors if it came to that. Sounds far fetched and probably completely wrong however what I’m getting at is that none of us here know and never will.

SDS

Dude starts a thread, angry at people that don't understand basic math and statistical averages. Proceeds to state that 550+500=1000.

I love these forums.

SDS

@dap1234567890 said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

@red_ted_is_back said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

We don’t actually know pack generation is coded, and none of the devs have disclosed it. It could work the way you have described (each pack has its own odds) or they may be sequenced so that every 50 packs allocated to the user base has a diamond. Nobody knows except those who designed and/or coded it.

I saw a youtuber earlier pulled two diamonds in one pack. This shows it is not every 50 packs to the community. I pulled diamonds in back-to-back-to-back packs also makes that not true as well.

Just wanted to add (see my previous reply), the back to back to back could be determined by when cards are allocated: purchase, opening… also others may be purchasing or opening at the exact same time… etc

SDS

@foxfire1545_psn said in Put away your tin foil hats!:

Best way I can put it is get a die that goes to 50 and roll it 50 times and see how many times it lands on 50 for each card in the pack.

Although I don’t believe each card in a standard pack has the same odds. The first three cards can be anything (and are often commons) whereas the final card has to be bronze or better, and that’s probably where 95% of my diamond pulls happened over all the years, special packs notwithstanding.

Are the odds 1:50 for a diamond player card, though, or just a diamond? Does a retro uniform count as part of fulfilling the 1:50?