25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why
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@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
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Since last year and this year I have opened an absurd amount of headliner packs. And honest to god the only headliner I’ve EVER pulled happened recently. I pulled Saberhagen.
I have horrible luck. But headliners suck. No reason to open over 100 of them and hit the headliner once.
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@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
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@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
Yes, I’m aware. Most everything I’ve seen on here is expressed as 1 out of 10. Where are these odds posted?
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@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
Actually, if the Ducks packs are any indication, they’re incorrectly expressing the odds with a : instead of /. It gives 1:1 odds of base pull but you’re guaranteed a base so it’s not 1/2.
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@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
Actually, if the Ducks packs are any indication, they’re incorrectly expressing the odds with a : instead of /. It gives 1:1 odds of base pull but you’re guaranteed a base so it’s not 1/2.
Odds are ratios of a player's chances of losing to his or her chances of winning, or the average frequency of a loss to the average frequency of a win. If a player owns 1 of 4 tickets, his/her probability is 1 in 4 but his/her odds are 3 to 1. That means that there are 3 chances of losing and only 1 chance of winning.
1:1 odds gives you 0 chances to lose.
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@pbake12 said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
Actually, if the Ducks packs are any indication, they’re incorrectly expressing the odds with a : instead of /. It gives 1:1 odds of base pull but you’re guaranteed a base so it’s not 1/2.
Odds are ratios of a player's chances of losing to his or her chances of winning, or the average frequency of a loss to the average frequency of a win. If a player owns 1 of 4 tickets, his/her probability is 1 in 4 but his/her odds are 3 to 1. That means that there are 3 chances of losing and only 1 chance of winning.
1:1 odds gives you 0 chances to lose.
I get that but I think they’re misusing the notation. So Ducks pack, do you have a 20% or 25% chance to get a rare?
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@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
Total cost must also include golds and silvers that you can sell bringing the final price down. Get back to work! lol
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@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@pbake12 said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
Actually, if the Ducks packs are any indication, they’re incorrectly expressing the odds with a : instead of /. It gives 1:1 odds of base pull but you’re guaranteed a base so it’s not 1/2.
Odds are ratios of a player's chances of losing to his or her chances of winning, or the average frequency of a loss to the average frequency of a win. If a player owns 1 of 4 tickets, his/her probability is 1 in 4 but his/her odds are 3 to 1. That means that there are 3 chances of losing and only 1 chance of winning.
1:1 odds gives you 0 chances to lose.
I get that but I think they’re misusing the notation. So Ducks pack, do you have a 20% or 25% chance to get a rare?
You know what I think you're right, SDS is misusing the "x : y" ratio notation to express probabilities. 1 to 1 actually means 50% chance (like flipping a coin has even chances of landing either heads or tails) but they're using that notation to mean "guarantee"
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@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@pbake12 said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@janoosh said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.
Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamondScenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundleThe math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs
I like the thought process but I believe your math is wrong. If you have a 1 in 10 shot of a diamond out of a headliner, why are you calling it 1/11? Same with standard packs, why 1/51 if you pull a diamond once out of every 50 packs on average?
Assuming a 10% chance of a diamond in headliners and a 2% chance in standard, headliners are a slightly better buy if any diamond is what your goal is.
1 - (.9)^5 = 40.951% in 5 headliners
1-(.02)^25 = 39.653% in 25 standard packs.
Again, I’m under the impression that odds are 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 for a diamond in headliners and standard packs respectively. 10 TO 1 and 50 TO 1 would make your math correct.
1:10 means 1 to 10 ratio, or 1 in 11 chance
Actually, if the Ducks packs are any indication, they’re incorrectly expressing the odds with a : instead of /. It gives 1:1 odds of base pull but you’re guaranteed a base so it’s not 1/2.
Odds are ratios of a player's chances of losing to his or her chances of winning, or the average frequency of a loss to the average frequency of a win. If a player owns 1 of 4 tickets, his/her probability is 1 in 4 but his/her odds are 3 to 1. That means that there are 3 chances of losing and only 1 chance of winning.
1:1 odds gives you 0 chances to lose.
I get that but I think they’re misusing the notation. So Ducks pack, do you have a 20% or 25% chance to get a rare?
You know what I think you're right, SDS is misusing the "x : y" ratio notation to express probabilities. 1 to 1 actually means 50% chance (like flipping a coin has even chances of landing either heads or tails) but they're using that notation to mean "guarantee"
So if this is the case, standard packs are a better bet for any diamond. If you want to narrow the scope and you have the odds to do so, say p(getting 90+) in headliners and standards, it’s easy to calculate but it’s important to remember that it assumes you’re buying n packs regardless and doesn’t account for you pulling the diamond in the first, second,...n-1 pack.
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@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@eatyum said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
@jz2016cubs said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:
Me, with not enough stubs for either: UGHHH...
Question: Are you guaranteed at least one diamond for 50 standard packs? Or is that just maybe? I would think you would get 2 or more diamonds if you buy 50 packs.The odds are based on the entire user base, so you are not guaranteed a diamond in 50 packs.
Think of it like this, if I pull 2 diamonds in 50 packs, and you pull no diamonds in 50 packs, the overall odds are still 1:50 because it's based on everybody, not per user.
Fun fact: there is a higher chance of pulling a diamond in 51 packs than pulling 2 diamonds in 102 packs. That's another takeaway from that Newton problem
Legit wondering , is the newton law based on a finite number of “packs”. The show packs are infinite. Think the reshuffle the deck analogy was dead on since it is basically a reshuffle no matter what you opened before
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