WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL
-
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
-
Here is an article
Here is part of that article
Stop the WAR?
Given how frequently it pops up in sabermetric discussions, WAR might sound like the pinnacle of sabermetrics. But no stat is perfect, and WAR is far from it.
The "godfather of Sabermetrics" Bill James wrote about his principal gripe with WAR, discussing the MVP race between Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge:
“Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve. Why? Because he didn’t do nearly as much to win games for his team as Altuve did. It is NOT close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis — not as bad as the 1974 statistical analysis, I grant, but flawed nonetheless. It is based essentially on a misleading statistic, which is WAR. Baseball-Reference WAR shows the little guy at 8.3, and the big guy at 8.1.”James’ argument represents the principal criticism of WAR — WAR is context neutral. If a player recorded only one single per game for 162 games, but that one single knocked in the game-winning run every game,WAR would credit that player with exactly as much value as a player who did the same thing but his team lost every game.
As a result, it would seem as though WAR is undervaluing the first player, and overvaluing the second player. Judge consistently performed poorly in high-leverage situations: he recorded the worst Clutch score of any player in 2017 per FanGraphs, despite leading the MLB in fWAR.
But in the words of Bertrand Russell, “WAR does not determine who is right…” so don’t think that WAR is the be all end all to every statistical discussion.
-
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
-
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
No it is actually common sense and fact you will never know who was actually better unless they played at the same time with the same rules, in the same stadiums, with the same baseball, against the same players. No formula can ever prove that 100 percent.
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
No it is actually common sense and fact you will never know who was actually better unless they played at the same time with the same rules, in the same stadiums, with the same baseball, against the same players. No formula can ever prove that 100 percent.
Keep attacking those strawman arguments.
-
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Morgan is better cause he stayed healthy. Tell me would have Morgan been as good if he played in the same ERA as Griffey? Would have Griffey been as good or better if he played in the ERA that Morgan played in, What would be Griffey WAR if he played in Morgan's time and vice versa.
Impossible to answer because it would be an opinion and no formula can tell you who would have been better.
-
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Here is another Question
Taking two players from different ERA's that play the same POS, A player could have A WAR that is Higher than another player in a different ERA because of the overall players at that pos in there time was better?Yes. That's the point. The WAR stat is giving context to overall slash line of the players.
That does not mean that player is actually better becaue if that player played in the same ERA the WAR would be different?
This is why I say the flormula is flawed. You can not assume how well a player would have played in a different ERA and taking in to account stadiums is a flaw in it self.
This is asinine
No it is actually common sense and fact you will never know who was actually better unless they played at the same time with the same rules, in the same stadiums, with the same baseball, against the same players. No formula can ever prove that 100 percent.
Keep attacking those strawman arguments.
I will
Here is an article
Here is part of that article
Stop the WAR?
Given how frequently it pops up in sabermetric discussions, WAR might sound like the pinnacle of sabermetrics. But no stat is perfect, and WAR is far from it.
The "godfather of Sabermetrics" Bill James wrote about his principal gripe with WAR, discussing the MVP race between Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge:
“Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve. Why? Because he didn’t do nearly as much to win games for his team as Altuve did. It is NOT close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis — not as bad as the 1974 statistical analysis, I grant, but flawed nonetheless. It is based essentially on a misleading statistic, which is WAR. Baseball-Reference WAR shows the little guy at 8.3, and the big guy at 8.1.”
James’ argument represents the principal criticism of WAR — WAR is context neutral. If a player recorded only one single per game for 162 games, but that one single knocked in the game-winning run every game,WAR would credit that player with exactly as much value as a player who did the same thing but his team lost every game.
As a result, it would seem as though WAR is undervaluing the first player, and overvaluing the second player. Judge consistently performed poorly in high-leverage situations: he recorded the worst Clutch score of any player in 2017 per FanGraphs, despite leading the MLB in fWAR.
But in the words of Bertrand Russell, “WAR does not determine who is right…” so don’t think that WAR is the be all end all to every statistical discussion.
-
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
-
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Is Trout better than Winfield?
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
Oh lordy.. you have talked yourself in circles and still can't grasp the whole idea behind WAR.
For the third time. It's to compare a player based on the replacement level player of the same time. It doesn't matter what team he plays on. It's irrelevant. It's taking into account wRC+ which is park adjusted. It's taking into account weighted statistics.
It also isn't comparing players to say how they would do in a different era. It's comparing players based on how valuable they were in their's... which is all that matters...
You can't seem to grasp that... -
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Is Trout better than Winfield?
Yes. Much better.
It took Winfield 22 years to accumulate 59.9 fWAR.It took Trout just over 8 years to accumulate 73.4 fWAR. And he's only 28.
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
Stop being obtuse. You know that no one is arguing something stupid like that. Fine, for sake of argument IF Cal put up exactly the same stats for a 90+ win team as he did for a 95 loss team, his WAR would have been the same.
The point was that you were wrong that an individuals WAR would be different based on how good or bad his team is. It's based off your peers not the ability of your team. Now I'm sure you'll go off on some tangent and attack another strawman...
-
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
Oh lordy.. you have talked yourself in circles and still can't grasp the whole idea behind WAR.
For the third time. It's to compare a player based on the replacement level player of the same time. It doesn't matter what team he plays on. It's irrelevant. It's taking into account wRC+ which is park adjusted. It's taking into account weighted statistics.
It also isn't comparing players to say how they would do in a different era. It's comparing players based on how valuable they were in their's... which is all that matters...
You can't seem to grasp that...Thanks, All speculation, Flawed
Which does not say the value they would have been in another ERA.
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
Oh lordy.. you have talked yourself in circles and still can't grasp the whole idea behind WAR.
For the third time. It's to compare a player based on the replacement level player of the same time. It doesn't matter what team he plays on. It's irrelevant. It's taking into account wRC+ which is park adjusted. It's taking into account weighted statistics.
It also isn't comparing players to say how they would do in a different era. It's comparing players based on how valuable they were in their's... which is all that matters...
You can't seem to grasp that...Thanks, All speculation
You are dense dude
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Is Trout better than Winfield?
Is that serious question? Of course he is.
-
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@Nanthrax_1 said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
Replacement level is the same across the league. It doesn't change because a team is good or bad. Cal Ripken Jr won the MVP in 1991 with the 11th best bWAR season of all time. The Orioles that year lost 95 games. You think his stats wouldn't have been as good if he had played for the Pirates or Braves that year instead?
You going to USE MVP that is a voting method and can be bias, glad you said stats and not WAR.
His stats and WAR would have been the same regardless if he played for a last place team or a first place team.
You do not know that for 100 percent, he would have faced different pitching in different ball parks with different teammates. I like to know how you know that 100 percent?
Oh lordy.. you have talked yourself in circles and still can't grasp the whole idea behind WAR.
For the third time. It's to compare a player based on the replacement level player of the same time. It doesn't matter what team he plays on. It's irrelevant. It's taking into account wRC+ which is park adjusted. It's taking into account weighted statistics.
It also isn't comparing players to say how they would do in a different era. It's comparing players based on how valuable they were in their's... which is all that matters...
You can't seem to grasp that...Thanks, All speculation
You are dense dude
No Realistic
-
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Is Trout better than Winfield?
Is that serious question? Of course he is.
Not According to WAR
-
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dewrock said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@SaveFarris said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
@dbarmonstar said in WAR MOST OVERRATED FORMULA IN BASEBALL:
By what you believe Joe Morgan is better than Ken Griffey Jr.
Remember that time you complained that WAR didn't compare players against their era?
Joe Morgan put up great all-around numbers with tremendous D at a middle infield position for a 15 year peak during a low period for offenses.
Griffey put up good but not great numbers (considering he was contemporaries w/ McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc) with also excellent D but at a less important position for roughly a 10 year peak (with partial injury-plagued seasons stretching for another 5) during arguably the biggest offensive explosion in MLB history.
Morgan should be rated higher than Griffey but not unreasonably so. Which means WAR (100.5 vs 83.8) is a pretty accurate stat despite your protestations.
Is Trout better than Winfield?
Is that serious question? Of course he is.
Not According to WAR
Wtf are you talking about?? I just proved it.. what are you reading?
You have absolutely zero clue. I'm assuming you can't read now
